Environmental Resilience Technology: Sustainable Solutions Using Value-Added Analytics in a Changing World
Abstract
:Featured Application
Abstract
1. Introduction
Case Study Background: The Wicked Wildfire Problem in the United States
2. Methods
2.1. Research-to-Commercialization (R2C) Model
2.2. Case Study: Dataset Curation
2.3. Case Study: Information Gap Analysis
2.4. Case Study: Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations
3. Results
3.1. Case Study: Information Gap Analysis Results
3.2. Case Study: Proof-of-Concept Demonstration
4. Discussion
4.1. R2C Model for Co-Production of Sustainable Solutions in Environmental Resilience Technology
4.2. Case Study: Information Gap Analysis and Demonstration Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. User Stories
- 1.
- Evacuation Route User Stories
- 1.1
- For protecting lives, property, and the environment, a Local Emergency Responder relies on information such as commute hours with respect to weather, time of day, distance, and fire behavior.
- 1.2
- For protecting lives, property, and the environment, a Local Emergency Responder relies on information such as Variable Sheriff/Emergency Management response time to communities in need.
- 1.3
- To effectively communicate with communities (access, e.g., 5G, language, messaging, notifications/alerts, etc.), a Local/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of transportation networks (who goes where and how—e.g., public transit, on what ingress/egress routes).
- 2.
- Dynamic Risk as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability User Stories
- 2.1
- For protecting lives, property, and the environment, a Local Emergency Responder relies on information such as dynamic risk by parcel based on fuels, weather, and home inspection information.
- 2.2
- To determine where and when to strategically position resources on the ground at the right location when needed and in response to mutual aid requisitions brokered between the public and local, state, and federal agencies, a State/Regional Emergency Responder relies on information such as dynamic current risk as it relates to anticipated short-term impacts from fire.
- 2.3
- For Disaster Declaration recommendations sent to the President that determine how much grant dollars are needed for what kind of assistance and for how long to which communities to build capability for state and local level response based on a cost–benefit analysis, a Regional Recovery Administrator relies on information of fire risk.
- 2.4
- For developing a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by city council/commissioner, a Local Land Use/Land Management/Resilience Planner relies on information of dynamic fire risk as it relates to changing fire hazard (as people cut trees, and structures are built/destroyed as combustible fuels), structural exposure, and structural vulnerability.
- 2.5
- To develop a wildfire strategy with priority high-risk areas and methods for reducing wildfire risk (fuels management—mechanical, prescribed fire, etc.) decided by rangers in each forest park and local Resilience Offices/County Commissioners and sometimes regionally (most contentious) often communicated and negotiated with the local communities, State/Regional Resilience Administrators rely on information of community Risk updated quarterly that scales from parcel to regional context (e.g., identify highest risk communities locally and regionally).
- 2.6
- To determine how many staff to hire in support of producing requested analytics by policymakers to assess capacity for meeting legislation mandates, a Resilience Planning Analytics Office relies on information of dynamic risk by parcel (60 m pixel) of assets (structures, power lines, habitat, critical infrastructure, watersheds, etc.) based on fuels, weather and home inspection information.
- 2.7
- To manage risk/reward trade-offs in a natural perils insurance portfolio by deciding whether or not to take on a risk (e.g., wildfire exposure) and what to charge for that risk based on where it sits within company tolerance for loss as it is written, the property, finance, insurance, reinsurance, and (re-)insurance companies model assets that they want to insure and send it to the underwriter who assesses the premium that can be charged for the risk, and an engineering team may visit the site and assess while offering services like mitigation advice. Underwriting then accepts/rejects risks and may initiate a process with the broker. Models are run daily on existing reinsured portfolios and monthly on the insured portfolios. This relies on information of dynamic risk (to insured losses) as asset (building) exposure and (building) vulnerability to hazard (not just today, but how it is likely to change).
- 3.
- Hazard User Stories
- 3.1
- To determine where and when to strategically position resources (contracted or in-house) on the ground at the right location when needed and in response to mutual aid requests brokered between the public and local, state and federal agencies, a state/regional emergency responder relies on information of dynamic “current” fire “risk” (i.e., hazard) as it relates to changes in fuels, topography and weather.
- 3.2
- To determine where and when to set fuel breaks (e.g., prescribe fire, hand crew, dozer, etc.) during response to active wildfire or in the “shoulder” season, a State/Regional Emergency Responder relies on information of dynamic “current” fire risk as it relates to evolving hazard of fuel condition (stress/moisture, beetles, etc.), type (veg and urban), and accumulation.
- 3.3
- To decide to defend a home or not, a Local/State/Regional Firefighter on the scene relies on information on home building materials.
- 3.4
- To determine how many staff to hire in support of producing requested analytics by policymakers to assess capacity for meeting legislation mandates, a Resilience Planning Analytics Office relies on information of national scale, including rapid, annual updates of vegetation and fuels (updated 3D layers).
- 3.5
- To manage risk/reward trade-offs in a natural perils insurance portfolio by deciding whether or not to take on a risk (e.g., wildfire exposure) and what to charge for that risk based on where it sits within company tolerance for loss as it is written, property, finance, insurance, reinsurance, and (re-)insurance companies model assets that they want to insure and send it to the underwriter who assesses the premium that can be charged for the risk, and an engineering team may visit the site and assess while offering services like mitigation advice. Underwriting then accepts/rejects risks and may initiate a process with the broker. Models are run daily on existing reinsured portfolios and monthly on the insured portfolios. This relies on information of dynamic hazards (not just today, but how it is likely to change).
- 3.6
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by city council/commissioner, a Local Land Manager/Land Use/Resilience Planning Administrator relies on information of dynamic fire hazard (as people cut trees, and structures are built/destroyed as combustible fuels).
- 3.4
- To target communications and prepare communities about risk reduction needs and measures (e.g., evacuation routes and planning as well as home hardening), a Local/Regional/National Resilience Administrator relies on information of building locations.
- 3.8
- To develop a wildfire strategy with priority high-risk areas and methods for reducing wildfire risk (fuels management—mechanical, prescribed fire, etc.) decided by rangers in each forest park and local Resilience Offices/County Commissioners and sometimes regionally (most contentious) often communicated and negotiated with the local communities, State/Regional Resilience Administrators rely on information of fuel composition updated quarterly.
- 4.
- Vulnerability User Stories
- 4.1
- For Disaster Declarations, Regional Administrators write a recommendation to the President to determine how much grant dollars are needed for what kind of assistance and for how long to which communities to build capability for state and local-level response based on a cost–benefit analysis. To do this, a Regional Recovery Administrator relies on information of maps of the built environment (structure).
- 4.2
- To build capacity for mitigation through projects that reduce future costs (e.g., debris removal, home hardening, defensible space), State/Regional Recovery Administrators rely on information of projected maps of the built environment (structure).
- 4.3
- To determine where to focus, sheltering resources for both displaced citizens and responders, State/Regional Recovery Administrators rely on information of social vulnerability.
- 4.4
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by the city council/commissioner, Local Land Use/Land Management/Resilient Planners rely on information on building vulnerability (ignite-ability) based on factors such as low-income housing, retrofitting, materials, etc.
- 4.5
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by city council/commissioner, Local Land Use/Land Management/Resilient Planners rely on information of social equity.
- 4.6
- To manage risk/reward trade-offs in natural perils insurance portfolio by deciding whether or not to take on a risk (e.g., wildfire exposure) and what to charge for that risk based on where it sits within company tolerance for loss as it is written, property, finance, insurance, reinsurance, and (re-)insurance companies model assets that they want to insure and send it to the underwriter who assesses the premium that can be charged for the risk, and an engineering team may visit the site and assess while offering services like mitigation advice. Underwriting then accepts/rejects risks and may initiate a process with the broker. Models are run daily on existing reinsured portfolios and monthly on the insured portfolios. This relies on information of (building) vulnerability.
- 4.7
- To determine whether to defend a home or not, a local emergency response firefighter relies on information such as the Urban Biomass “green biomass” as a Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) layer.
- 4.8
- To support evacuation planning, a Local Resilience Administrator relies on information of social equity.
- 5.
- Exposure User Stories
- 5.1
- To determine building capacity for mitigation through projects that reduce future costs (e.g., debris removal, home hardening, defensible space), a State/Regional Recovery Administrator relies on information of projections of built environment (structure) maps.
- 5.2
- To manage risk/reward trade-offs in a natural perils insurance portfolio by deciding whether or not to take on a risk (e.g., wildfire exposure) and what to charge for that risk based on where it sits within company tolerance for loss as it is written, property, finance, insurance, reinsurance, and (re-)insurance companies model assets that they want to insure and send it to the underwriter who assesses the premium that can be charged for the risk, and an engineering team may visit the site and assess while offering services like mitigation advice. Underwriting then accepts/rejects risks and may initiate a process with the broker. Models are run daily on existing reinsured portfolios and monthly on the insured portfolios. This relies on information of dynamic asset (building) exposure.
- 5.3
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by city council/commissioner, a Local Land Manager/Land Use/Resilience Planning Administrator relies on information of dynamic structural exposure.
- 5.4
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by city council/commissioner, Local Land Use/Land Management/Resilient Planners rely on information of social equity.
- 5.5
- To manage risk/reward trade-offs in natural perils insurance portfolio by deciding whether or not to take on a risk (e.g., wildfire exposure) and what to charge for that risk based on where it sits within company tolerance for loss as it is written, property, finance, insurance, reinsurance, and (re-)insurance companies model assets that they want to insure and send it to the underwriter who assesses the premium that can be charged for the risk, and an engineering team may visit the site and assess while offering services like mitigation advice. Underwriting then accepts/rejects risks and may initiate a process with the broker. Models are run daily on existing reinsured portfolios and monthly on the insured portfolios. This relies on information of asset locations now and in the future.
- 6.
- Social Media Influence User Stories
- 6.1
- To influence communication strategy for effective communications with communities (access, e.g., 5G, language, messaging, notifications/alerts, etc.), a Local/State/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of number of likes and impressions of messaging.
- 7.
- Misinformation User Stories
- 7.1
- To decide how, when and what vetted, validated information (on community needs and situational awareness) to disseminate to the public in a timely manner and where to obtain the information, a Local/Regional Public Information Officer needs to identify point sources of misinformation and misinformation itself.
- 7.2
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by city council/commissioner, a Local/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of public perception of risk and mitigation efforts with filtered misinformation.
- 8
- Filtered Communications User Stories
- 8.1
- To prioritize the 9-1-1 emergency response dispatch of consolidated resource requests (reducing calls to the right number of resource needs rather than resources/caller who may call about the same event) to the right local agency, a Local Emergency Responder relies on situational information (weapons, threats, etc.).
- 8.2
- To decide when people can return based on hazards and access to utilities (water and power), a Regional Recovery Administrator relies on information on who is evacuating and not evacuating in real time.
- 8.3
- To decide where to focus on sheltering resources for both displaced citizens and responders, a Regional Recovery Administrator relies on information of who needs resources (filtered by social media).
- 8.4
- To decide if resources spent helping on the ground are less than they would receive in consulting on recovery, a Regional Recovery consulting company relies on validated, geolocated information from reliable sources on damages (e.g., downed power lines).
- 8.5
- To decide what agency information to share publicly based on what the public needs to know to reduce the number of duplicate calls on the same incident, a Local Public Information Officer relies on information of evacuations (plans and crowdsourced feedback on available/limited resources and access).
- 8.6
- To decide how, when and what vetted, validated information (on community needs and situational awareness) to disseminate to the public in a timely manner and where to obtain the information, a Regional Public Information Officer uses information to identify the mavens (local media influencers).
- 8.7
- To build public-facing relationships around a cohesive, collaborative strategy across political boundaries for incident response, Incident Command approves staff of the National Incident Management Office (NIMO) as part of the USFS to use validated information on the local event with images, location, timestamps, and information on who took it.
- 8.8
- To determine how and when to pay out on a claim and how to reorganize capital to handle catastrophic events, a (re-)insurance company in national/international resilience planning relies on information of claim validation in the form of geolocation and photos.
- 9.
- Public Perception User Stories
- 9.1
- To protect lives, property, and the environment through response, prevention, and education made locally across departments, Local Emergency Responders coordinated across jurisdictional boundaries (“mutual aid) by the State (e.g., CAL FIRE) with federal resources allocated by Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) rely on information of community perceptions of risk based on fire history and awareness.
- 9.2
- To protect lives, property, and the environment through response, prevention, and education made locally across departments, Local Emergency Responders coordinated across jurisdictional boundaries (“mutual aid) by the State (e.g., CAL FIRE) with federal resources allocated by Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) rely on information of public perception with respect to rumor control of misinformation and ability to turn information into intelligence.
- 9.3
- To develop resilience plans coordinated with each community locally based on watersheds on for planning evacuation routes, infrastructure improvements, where to conduct fuel hazard reductions, and which homes to defend during active response, Local Emergency Responders rely on information of public perception with respect to rumor control of misinformation about resilience measures (e.g., prescribed fire).
- 9.4
- To prioritize the 9-1-1 emergency response dispatch of consolidated resource requests (reducing calls to the right number of resource needs, rather than resources/caller who may call about the same event) to the right local agency, Local Emergency Responders rely on information of public perception of the event.
- 9.5
- To set strategic priorities of how to use limited staff to be successful and where to prioritize investments to reduce risks (e.g., construction tailored to threats) in preparation for an upcoming wildfire season, the grant management of State/Regional Emergency Management rely on information of public perception about prioritization of protecting assets based on variable value systems.
- 9.6
- To decide where and when to strategically position resources (contracted or in-house) on the ground at the right location when needed and in response to mutual aid requests brokered between the public and local, state and federal agencies, State and Regional Emergency Managers rely on information public perception about prioritization of protecting assets based on variable value systems (e.g., timber vs. homes).
- 9.7
- To decide whether to defend a home or not, a local/state/regional firefighter relies on information of public perception about prioritization of protecting assets based on variable value systems (e.g., timber vs. homes).
- 9.8
- To decide where, when and what kind of fuel breaks to allocate (prescribe a fire, hand crew, dozer, goats, etc.) during response to active wildfire or in the “shoulder season”, local/state/regional firefighters rely on information of public perception of fuel treatments and geotagged photos of what is happening; written text needs to be verified in real time (trusted vs. not trusted).
- 9.9
- To decide when to alert and warn people of risk and how to educate the public to take mitigation action, a Local Resilience Administrator relies on information of public perception of events in real time as they happen and that is reliable from trusted sources and accurate with photos and geotagging.
- 9.10
- To develop a strategic plan on what mitigation efforts to prioritize based on capability/capacity, infrastructure programs, and social justice that is often vetted with the local community through public engagement exercise and approved by the city council/commissioner, a Local/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of public perception of risk and mitigation efforts with filtered misinformation.
- 9.11
- To decide how to transition from strategic planning to implementation based on priorities of the local community identified by and ranked by the city Chief Resilience Officer, a Local/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of public perception of risk and mitigation efforts with filtered misinformation.
- 9.12
- To communicate and prepare communities about risk reduction needs and measures (e.g., evacuation routes and planning as well as home hardening), a Local/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of public perception and understanding of fire risk and preparedness as well as public sentiment to determine messaging to communities of fire expectations.
- 9.13
- To influence communication strategy for effective communications with communities (access, e.g., 5G, language, messaging, notifications/alerts, etc.), a Local/State/Regional Resilience Administrator relies on information of the number of public sentiments to determine buy-in of assets being protected.
- 9.14
- To decide how, when and what vetted, validated information (on community needs and situational awareness) to disseminate to the public in a timely manner and where to obtain the information from within the constraints and scope directed by an Incident Commander, a Local/Regional Public Information Officer relies on information of public sentiment of the event.
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Type of Limitation or Opportunity | # of User Personas | Requirement Consolidated Across Personas |
---|---|---|
Social Media | 5 | Social media information shall include filters by: “deep fakes”, misinformation, bots, verified accounts, etc. |
Risk Futures | 5 | Risk futures that project risk, as defined by how it is messaged rather than just acres burned, under different management scenarios to link cost of management to risk mitigation benefit. |
Risk General | 3 | Risk information shall provide uncertainty by each layer: hazard, exposure, vulnerability. |
Risk information should consider scalability beyond data limitations of the United States. | ||
Risk information shall include more than simple maps of the Wildland Urban Interface. | ||
Hazard | 2 | Hazard information shall provide fuel maps that are updated frequently as fuels change. |
Vulnerability | 2 | Vulnerability information shall include building ignition potential today and into the future. |
Incident Reporting | 2 | Incident information shall automatically populate based on curated data from different data sources. |
Exposure | 1 | Exposure information shall include building locations today and likely locations into the future. |
General | 1 | Information technologies shall focus on proactive solutions rather than only reactive solutions (i.e., suppression). |
1 | Information of value shall include metadata. | |
1 | Impact information shall link building damage to insurance policies. | |
1 | Information of value shall be verified with local knowledge. | |
1 | Information of value shall provide the granularity needed to inform decisions. | |
1 | Information technologies shall enable analytics (e.g., trend analyses). |
Type of Limitation or Opportunity | # of User Personas | Requirement Consolidated Across Personas |
---|---|---|
Product Definition | 7 | Information technology shall be interoperable to “plug in” to existing data portals used by User Personas to reduce the number of sources/screens that they must visit and enable them to use existing data layers. |
1 | Data platforms should plug into a single existing government data portal when one becomes available by the federal government. | |
User Experience (UX) | 5 | Information layers shall be intuitive to interpret to reduce training for use. |
Accessibility | 6 | Information technologies shall be accessible via a cell phone or government laptop with limited connectivity. |
1 | Information layers shall be accessible via both information technologies and print outs. | |
1 | Information layers shall be archivable with provenance to be public record. | |
Business Model | 5 | Information technologies shall meet the objectives of federal funding sources while also servicing local and state decision needs. |
Trustworthy AI | 4 | Information for value-added analytics shall have transparent documentation of algorithms. |
Information for value-added analytics shall be open source. | ||
Information for value-added analytics shall include uncertainty and error propagation. | ||
Product Requirements | 5 | Information for value-added analytics shall be archived for long-term access. |
Information for value-added analytics shall be pre-processed and ready to use. | ||
Information for value-added analytics shall incentivize more resilient behavior and penalize less resilient behavior. | ||
Information technologies shall integrate cybersecurity. | ||
Information technologies should be marketed to the relevant agencies for using the available information. | ||
Other Technology and Cultural Needs | 1 | Information technologies should include a business model to better serve less advantaged communities without exploiting them. |
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Share and Cite
Stavros, E.N.; Gezon, C.; St. Denis, L.; Iglesias, V.; Zapata, C.; Byrne, M.; Cooper, L.; Cook, M.; Doyle, E.; Stephens, J.; et al. Environmental Resilience Technology: Sustainable Solutions Using Value-Added Analytics in a Changing World. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 11034. https://doi.org/10.3390/app131911034
Stavros EN, Gezon C, St. Denis L, Iglesias V, Zapata C, Byrne M, Cooper L, Cook M, Doyle E, Stephens J, et al. Environmental Resilience Technology: Sustainable Solutions Using Value-Added Analytics in a Changing World. Applied Sciences. 2023; 13(19):11034. https://doi.org/10.3390/app131911034
Chicago/Turabian StyleStavros, E. Natasha, Caroline Gezon, Lise St. Denis, Virginia Iglesias, Christina Zapata, Michael Byrne, Laurel Cooper, Maxwell Cook, Ethan Doyle, Jilmarie Stephens, and et al. 2023. "Environmental Resilience Technology: Sustainable Solutions Using Value-Added Analytics in a Changing World" Applied Sciences 13, no. 19: 11034. https://doi.org/10.3390/app131911034