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Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan

1
Department of Geography, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
2
The Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan
3
Department of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan
4
Department of Geography, Govt. Postgraduate College Gojra, Gojra 56000, Pakistan
5
Department of Geography, Government College University Lahore, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Environments 2019, 6(6), 71; https://doi.org/10.3390/environments6060071
Received: 6 April 2019 / Revised: 12 June 2019 / Accepted: 14 June 2019 / Published: 17 June 2019
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Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially, the climatic variability was explored using a time series analysis on climatic factors from 1970 to 2012. Furthermore, ordinary and multiple linear regression analyses were used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue incidence from 2007 to 2012. The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, which shaped a dengue-supporting environment. It also showed a positive temporal relationship between climatic factors and DF. Moreover, the regression analyses revealed a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence. The ordinary linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R2 = 34.2%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R2 = 38.0%. The multiple regression analysis showed a monthly significance of R2 = 44.6%. Consequently, our study shows a substantial synergism between dengue and climatic factors in Lahore. The present study could help in unveiling new ways for health prediction modeling of dengue and might be applicable in other subtropical and temperate climates. View Full-Text
Keywords: time series; linear regression; rainfall; temperature; climate; DF time series; linear regression; rainfall; temperature; climate; DF
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Naqvi, S.A.A.; Jan, B.; Shaikh, S.; Kazmi, S.J.H.; Waseem, L.A.; Nasar-u-minAllah, M.; Abbas, N. Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan. Environments 2019, 6, 71.

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