A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum

Fischer, Markus L.; Bachofer, Felix; Yost, Chad L.; Bludau, Ines J. E.; Schepers, Christian; Foerster, Verena; Lamb, Henry; Schäbitz, Frank; Asrat, Asfawossen; Trauth, Martin H.; Junginger, Annett

doi:10.3390/geosciences11100418

Open AccessArticle

A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum

by

Markus L. Fischer

^1,2,*

,

Felix Bachofer

³

,

Chad L. Yost

⁴

,

Ines J. E. Bludau

^1,2,

Christian Schepers

⁵

,

Verena Foerster

⁶,

Henry Lamb

^7,8

,

Frank Schäbitz

⁶

,

Asfawossen Asrat

^9,10

,

Martin H. Trauth

¹¹ and

Annett Junginger

^1,2,*

¹

Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University Tuebingen, Hoelderlinstr. 12, 72074 Tuebingen, Germany

²

Senckenberg Centre for Human Evolution and Paleoenvironment (S-HEP), Sigwartstr. 10, 72076 Tuebingen, Germany

³

Observation Centre, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Muenchener Str. 29, 82234 Wessling, Germany

⁴

Department of Earth and Environmental Systems, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, IN 47809, USA

⁵

Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology, University of Cologne, 50931 Cologne, Germany

⁶

Institute of Geography Education, University of Cologne, 50931 Cologne, Germany

⁷

Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3FL, UK

⁸

Botany Department, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College, D02 DP21 Dublin, Ireland

⁹

Department of Mining and Geological Engineering, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Private Bag 16, Palapye, Botswana

¹⁰

School of Earth Sciences, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

¹¹

Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

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Geosciences 2021, 11(10), 418; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11100418

Submission received: 8 July 2021 / Revised: 25 September 2021 / Accepted: 4 October 2021 / Published: 8 October 2021

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Environmental Change of Africa)

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Abstract

During the past 25 ka, southern Ethiopia has undergone tremendous climatic changes, from dry and relatively cold during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 25–18 ka) to the African Humid Period (AHP, 15–5 ka), and back to present-day dry conditions. As a contribution to better understand the effects of climate change on vegetation and lakes, we here present a new Predictive Vegetation Model that is linked with a Lake Balance Model and available vegetation-proxy records from southern Ethiopia including a new phytolith record from the Chew Bahir basin. We constructed a detailed paleo-landcover map of southern Ethiopia during the LGM, AHP (with and without influence of the Congo Air Boundary) and the modern-day potential natural landcover. Compared to today, we observe a 15–20% reduction in moisture availability during the LGM with widespread open landscapes and only few remaining forest refugia. We identify 25–40% increased moisture availability during the AHP with prevailing forests in the mid-altitudes and indications that modern anthropogenic landcover change has affected the water balance. In comparison with existing archaeological records, we find that human occupations tend to correspond with open landscapes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in southern Ethiopia.

Keywords: predictive vegetation model; boosted regression trees; lake balance model; East African rift system; Ethiopia; Chew Bahir; phytoliths; African humid period; last glacial maximum

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MDPI and ACS Style

Fischer, M.L.; Bachofer, F.; Yost, C.L.; Bludau, I.J.E.; Schepers, C.; Foerster, V.; Lamb, H.; Schäbitz, F.; Asrat, A.; Trauth, M.H.; et al. A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum. Geosciences 2021, 11, 418. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11100418

AMA Style

Fischer ML, Bachofer F, Yost CL, Bludau IJE, Schepers C, Foerster V, Lamb H, Schäbitz F, Asrat A, Trauth MH, et al. A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum. Geosciences. 2021; 11(10):418. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11100418

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fischer, Markus L., Felix Bachofer, Chad L. Yost, Ines J. E. Bludau, Christian Schepers, Verena Foerster, Henry Lamb, Frank Schäbitz, Asfawossen Asrat, Martin H. Trauth, and et al. 2021. "A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum" Geosciences 11, no. 10: 418. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11100418

APA Style

Fischer, M. L., Bachofer, F., Yost, C. L., Bludau, I. J. E., Schepers, C., Foerster, V., Lamb, H., Schäbitz, F., Asrat, A., Trauth, M. H., & Junginger, A. (2021). A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum. Geosciences, 11(10), 418. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11100418

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A Phytolith Supported Biosphere-Hydrosphere Predictive Model for Southern Ethiopia: Insights into Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Landscape Preferences since the Last Glacial Maximum

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