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Open AccessArticle

Mainshock Anticipated by Intra-Sequence Ground Deformations: Insights from Multiscale Field and SAR Interferometric Measurements

1
Dipartimento di Scienze Psicologiche, della Salute e del Territorio, Università G. d’Annunzio, via dei Vestini 31, 66100 Chieti, Italy
2
Centro InteRUniversitario per l’Analisi SismoTettonica Tridimensionale (CRUST), Italy
3
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (CNR-IRPI), 06128 Perugia, Italy
4
Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, Università degli Studi di Perugia, Piazza dell’Università 1, 06123 Perugia, Italy
5
Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Geologia, Università G. d’Annunzio, via dei Vestini 31, 66100 Chieti, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2020, 10(5), 186; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10050186
Received: 20 April 2020 / Revised: 7 May 2020 / Accepted: 13 May 2020 / Published: 15 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Seismic Sequence in Mediterranean Region)
The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence was characterized by two main events: 24 August, Mw 6, and 30 October, Mw 6.5. We carried out high-resolution field sampling and DInSAR analysis of the coseismic and intra-sequence ground deformations along the Mt Vettore-Mt Bove causative fault (VBF). We found that during the intra-sequence period (24 August–30 October), the ground experienced some deformations whose final patterns seemed to be retraced and amplified by the following mainshock. We interpreted that (i) immediately after the 24 August earthquake, the deformation observed in the southern VBF expanded northwards and westwards over a Length of Deforming Ground (LDG) ranging between 28.7 and 36.3 km, and (ii) it extended to the whole portion of the hanging wall that was later affected by mainshock coseismic deformation. Assuming the LDG to be an indicator for an expected (=coseismic) surface rupture length and using known scaling functions, we obtained 6.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.7 for a possible incoming earthquake, which is consistent with the mainshock magnitude. We suggest that the evolution of the ground deformations after a significant seismic event might provide insights on the occurrence of new earthquakes with magnitudes comparable to or larger than the former. View Full-Text
Keywords: 2016 central Italy earthquake; coseismic and intra-sequence ground deformations; DInSAR analysis; comparison of DInSAR and field data; earthquake magnitude assessment 2016 central Italy earthquake; coseismic and intra-sequence ground deformations; DInSAR analysis; comparison of DInSAR and field data; earthquake magnitude assessment
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Brozzetti, F.; Mondini, A.C.; Pauselli, C.; Mancinelli, P.; Cirillo, D.; Guzzetti, F.; Lavecchia, G. Mainshock Anticipated by Intra-Sequence Ground Deformations: Insights from Multiscale Field and SAR Interferometric Measurements. Geosciences 2020, 10, 186.

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