District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model

Mukhanbetkaliyeva, Aizada A.; Iglesias Martin, Irene; Korennoy, Fedor I.; Kadyrov, Alimzhan S.; Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y.; Ruzmatov, Saidulla I.; Abenova, Asem Zh.; Bakishev, Temirlan G.; Perez, Andres M.; Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K.

doi:10.3390/pathogens15080796

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District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model

by

Aizada A. Mukhanbetkaliyeva

¹,

Irene Iglesias Martin

²,

Fedor I. Korennoy

³

,

Alimzhan S. Kadyrov

¹,

Yersyn Y. Mukhanbetkaliyev

¹,

Saidulla I. Ruzmatov

¹

,

Asem Zh. Abenova

¹

,

Temirlan G. Bakishev

¹,

Andres M. Perez

⁴ and

Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov

^1,*

¹

Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary, Saken Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Astana 010011, Kazakhstan

²

Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA), Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), 28130 Madrid, Spain

³

Federal Centre for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir 600901, Russia

⁴

Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul Campus, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Pathogens 2026, 15(8), 796; https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens15080796

Submission received: 29 June 2026 / Revised: 23 July 2026 / Accepted: 25 July 2026 / Published: 27 July 2026

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Insights into Viral Infections of Domestic Animals)

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Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a transboundary disease of birds with zoonotic potential. Since 2021, H5 HPAI virus variants have spread globally, with migratory waterfowl playing a key role in transcontinental dissemination. Kazakhstan lies at the intersection of major flyways, creating a persistent risk of virus introduction into domestic poultry. While HPAI risk in wild birds has been explored in Kazakhstan, the spatial risk for poultry has remained underassessed. Here, we present a risk map for HPAI in poultry across 174 administrative districts of Kazakhstan, using a multi-criteria decision analysis (TOPSIS) that integrates five quantitative risk indicators that relate to wild bird habitat, virus survival in the environment and poultry farm census. The obtained district-level risk index agreed well with historical outbreak data (2005–2025), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.899 (95% CI: 0.846–0.952). Most districts (56%) were at negligible risk, whereas medium- and high-risk clusters occurred in the north, central, and southern regions, and near the Caspian Sea. These findings provide an operational, spatially explicit tool for targeting surveillance and biosecurity measures to high-risk areas, ultimately helping to mitigate the impact of one of the most devastating transboundary poultry diseases in Central Asia.

Keywords: highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); risk mapping; multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); TOPSIS; poultry; wild birds; Kazakhstan; spatial epidemiology; surveillance; migratory flyways

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MDPI and ACS Style

Mukhanbetkaliyeva, A.A.; Iglesias Martin, I.; Korennoy, F.I.; Kadyrov, A.S.; Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y.Y.; Ruzmatov, S.I.; Abenova, A.Z.; Bakishev, T.G.; Perez, A.M.; Abdrakhmanov, S.K. District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model. Pathogens 2026, 15, 796. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens15080796

AMA Style

Mukhanbetkaliyeva AA, Iglesias Martin I, Korennoy FI, Kadyrov AS, Mukhanbetkaliyev YY, Ruzmatov SI, Abenova AZ, Bakishev TG, Perez AM, Abdrakhmanov SK. District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model. Pathogens. 2026; 15(8):796. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens15080796

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mukhanbetkaliyeva, Aizada A., Irene Iglesias Martin, Fedor I. Korennoy, Alimzhan S. Kadyrov, Yersyn Y. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Saidulla I. Ruzmatov, Asem Zh. Abenova, Temirlan G. Bakishev, Andres M. Perez, and Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov. 2026. "District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model" Pathogens 15, no. 8: 796. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens15080796

APA Style

Mukhanbetkaliyeva, A. A., Iglesias Martin, I., Korennoy, F. I., Kadyrov, A. S., Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Y., Ruzmatov, S. I., Abenova, A. Z., Bakishev, T. G., Perez, A. M., & Abdrakhmanov, S. K. (2026). District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model. Pathogens, 15(8), 796. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens15080796

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District-Level Risk Mapping of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in Kazakhstan Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Model

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