Trade and Strike Activity in the Postwar United States
Abstract
:1. Existing Research Examining Determinants of Strike Activity
2. The Impact of Trade on Strike Activity
3. Research Design
4. Empirical Results
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Min | Max | Mean | Min | Max | |
Work stoppages | 92.40 | 0 | 721 | 13.21 | 0 | 131 |
Person-days idle due to work stoppages (thousands) | 671 | 0 | 14,800 | 189 | 0 | 19,589 |
Manufacturing import sensitivity | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
Manufacturing export orientation | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
Uncertainty from exposure to trade | 0.17 | 0.01 | 1.54 | 0.12 | 0.002 | 0.54 |
Union density (percent of workforce) | 23.39 | 5.7 | 44.8 | 14.49 | 3.3 | 32.3 |
Real per capita personal income (thousands of US dollars) | 9.74 | 3.98 | 21.30 | 14.49 | 9.07 | 24.25 |
Right-to-work law | 0.35 | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 1 |
Unemployment rate | 5.47 | 1.8 | 14.6 | 5.55 | 2.26 | 14.72 |
Ideological orientation of state citizens | 44.82 | 0.96 | 86.87 | 48.46 | 9.25 | 93.91 |
Ideological orientation of state government | 46.73 | 0 | 93.39 | 50.03 | 0 | 97.92 |
Wage and salary employees (thousands) | 1.74 | 0.12 | 11.12 | 2.40 | 0.20 | 15.89 |
Appendix B
Logged Dependent Variable | Tobit Models of 1984–2001 Period | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
1964–1981 | 1984–2001 | Dependent Variable Not Logged | Dependent Variable Logged | |
Manufacturing import sensitivity | −1.78 (2.53) | 0.86 (1.85) | 1602.46 (1231.22) | 2.47 (2.39) |
Manufacturing export orientation | 0.78 (2.57) | −5.60 (2.95) | −3342.13 (1740.35) | −11.95 (3.38) |
Uncertainty from exposure to trade | 2.32 * (0.56) | 0.21 (0.84) | 463.41 (489.43) | 0.58 (0.89) |
Union density (percent of workforce) | 0.16 * (0.02) | 0.34 * (0.05) | 50.82 (32.22) | 0.39 * (0.06) |
Union density squared | −0.002 * (0.0003) | −0.01 * (0.001) | −0.57 (0.95) | −0.01 * (0.002) |
Real per capita personal income (thousands of US dollars) | −0.06 * (0.03) | −0.09 * (0.03) | 0.34 (21.62) | −0.09 * (0.04) |
Right-to-work law | −0.12 (0.09) | 0.19 (0.14) | 45.47 (113.69) | 0.14 (0.24) |
Unemployment rate | 0.01 (0.02) | −0.07 (0.03) | −25.96 (22.99) | −0.09 * (0.04) |
Ideological orientation of state citizens | −0.01 (0.004) | −0.002 (0.004) | −1.86 (3.51) | −0.002 (0.007) |
Ideological orientation of state government | 0.0001 (0.002) | 0.005 * (0.002) | 0.40 (1.70) | 0.008 * (0.003) |
Wage and salary employees (thousands) | 0.09 * (0.02) | |||
Log of wage and salary employees (thousands) | 0.86 * (0.08) | 1.02 * (0.11) | 1.26 * (0.11) | |
Lagged dependent variable | 0.28 * (0.06) | 0.30 * (0.07) | −0.005 (0.04) | 0.22 * (0.04) |
Constant | −3.58 * (0.45) | −6.43 * (0.99) | −459.36 (461.39) | −7.80 * (1.06) |
R-squared | 0.77 | 0.61 | ||
Observations | 876 | 849 | 849 | 849 |
Discussion of Robustness Tests in Appendix B
Appendix C
1. No Controls | 2. State Fixed Effects | 3. Control Variables | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1964–1981 | 1984–2001 | |
Manufacturing import sensitivity | 3.93 (0.82) | −4.28 * (1.03) | 4.09 (0.83) | −3.76 * (1.05) | −4.70 * (1.36) | −4.18 * (1.26) |
Manufacturing export orientation | −7.72 (1.04) | −8.29 (1.28) | −7.81 (1.05) | −8.84 (1.29) | −6.58 (1.31) | −7.21 (1.32) |
Uncertainty from exposure to trade | 11.31 * (3.04) | 15.65 * (4.11) | 11.34 * (3.05) | 14.46 * (4.20) | 26.29 * (3.96) | 16.50 * (4.14) |
Union density (percent of workforce) | 0.06 * (0.02) | 0.10 * (0.04) | ||||
Union density squared | −0.001 * (0.0003) | −0.002 * (0.001) | ||||
Real per capita personal income (thousands of US dollars) | 0.06 (0.02) | −0.01 (0.03) | ||||
Right-to-work law | −0.43 * (0.11) | −0.36 (0.24) | ||||
Unemployment rate | −0.05 * (0.01) | −0.04 * (0.01) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state citizens | 0.0004 (0.002) | −0.005 (0.003) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state government | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | ||||
Wage and salary employees (thousands) | 0.04 * (0.02) | 0.15 * (0.03) | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.10 * (0.03) | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.14 * (0.03) |
Lagged dependent variable | 0.002 * (0.0001) | 0.004 * (0.001) | 0.002 * (0.0001) | 0.003 * (0.001) | 0.002 * (0.0001) | 0.004 * (0.001) |
Constant | 2.49 * (0.06) | 3.77 * (0.21) | 2.52 * (0.06) | 3.97 * (0.22) | 2.34 * (0.30) | 3.19 * (0.59) |
Observations | 1527 | 849 | 1527 | 849 | 876 | 849 |
1. No Controls | 2. State Fixed Effects | 3. Control Variables | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1964–1981 | 1984–2001 | |
Manufacturing import sensitivity | −1510.49 (2970.41) | 1050.82 (708.90) | 7011.32 (4922.67) | 2804.51 (1257.97) | −2550.61 (2800.61) | 1325.83 (743.19) |
Manufacturing export orientation | −3916.31 (2828.00) | −2397.61 (962.38) | −14,250.21 (4911.01) | −4038.01 (1443.00) | −1773.93 (2972.98) | −1888.71 (969.31) |
Uncertainty from exposure to trade | 28,960.76 * (16,677.34) | 2715.51 (4367.57) | 34,791.99 * (16,372.63) | 1983.89 (5150.77) | 40,927.68 * (15,490.47) | 3190.06 (4538.84) |
Union density (percent of workforce) | 16.87 (21.14) | −0.09 (40.06) | ||||
Union density squared | 0.35 (0.49) | 0.87 (1.55) | ||||
Real per capita personal income (thousands of US dollars) | −45.96 * (16.43) | −1.11 (9.80) | ||||
Right-to-work law | −121.32 * (39.32) | 13.82 (42.89) | ||||
Unemployment rate | −54.64 * (25.77) | −18.02 (18.03) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state citizens | 0.38 (2.56) | −0.74 (1.34) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state government | −4.17 (1.80) | −1.15 (1.02) | ||||
Wage and salary employees (thousands) | 0.30 * (0.04) | 0.07 * (0.02) | 0.16 (0.15) | −0.02 (0.11) | 0.26 * (0.05) | 0.06 * (0.02) |
Lagged dependent variable | 0.27 * (0.10) | 0.07 (0.19) | 0.01 (0.10) | −0.06 (0.19) | 0.31 * (0.11) | 0.03 (0.19) |
Constant | 25.78 (119.75) | 43.96 (66.95) | 664.07 * (208.13) | 241.41 (196.96) | 268.88 (326.63) | −68.78 (334.56) |
R-squared | 0.47 | 0.07 | 0.58 | 0.18 | 0.62 | 0.10 |
Observations | 1525 | 849 | 1525 | 849 | 876 | 849 |
Discussion of Results in Appendix C
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1. | Work stoppages are the technical term used by the Bureau of Labor statistics, including both strikes and work stoppages. Data on work stoppages are available for a longer period of time than we cover in this study. Limitations on key independent variables restrict its scope to the 1947–1981 and 1984–2001 periods. |
2. | |
3. | To be sure, other work has argued that union organization may also lower degree of membership activism (e.g., Aronowitz 1973; Brecher 1997; Piven and Cloward 1979). |
4. | We will thus sum the absolute change in the value of these two indices to capture trade’s effect on uncertainty. This measure assumes that change in exposure to international markets during the past year causes uncertainty. One might argue, instead, for considering change over a longer span of time. As a robustness test, we will use the standard deviation of our two trade measures during the most recent five years. Appendix C presents the results using this index, which are substantively similar to those we found using the one-year changes. |
5. | To be sure, our measure cannot capture the extent to which intentionally short but very damaging strikes such as those involved in ‘just in time’ manufacturing processes take place. |
6. | Of the 1750 cases coded for the 50 states between 1947 and 1981, only three cases had to be double-checked. |
7. | The coding decision to remove duplicate entries was to remove cases where the location, dates of strikes, numbers involved and name of workplace matched. A total of 12 duplicates were found. |
8. | Letter from the FMCS on file with the author. Available upon request. |
9. | Union density data are from Hirsch et al. (2001). |
10. | |
11. | The coefficients for export-orientation would be statistically significant if we had hypothesized that it had a negative relationship to the number of strikes. However, this is not what our argument about the impact of trade on labor’s bargaining power suggests. To be clear about our results, we cannot reject the null hypothesis concerning our claims about bargaining power. However, this result does not imply that the null hypothesis is true. It means that the relationship between export orientation and strike activity, if any, must stem from a causal process other than the one we proposed. |
12. | See Appendix C for results using an alternative indicator of trade-related uncertainty. |
13. | Appendix B presents two robustness tests arising from possible objections to our dependent variables. Neither substantially changes our results. |
14. | This concern applies to the logged dependent variable as well. Because we added one to the number of person-days idle before logging it in order to avoid undefined values, there are an equal number of zeroes observed in those data. |
1. No Controls | 2. State Fixed Effects | 3. Control Variables | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1964–1981 | 1984–2001 | |
Manufacturing import sensitivity | 5.09 (0.72) | −2.63 * (0.92) | 5.24 (0.73) | −2.34 * (0.94) | −3.24 * (1.36) | −1.89 (1.11) |
Manufacturing export orientation | −6.73 (0.89) | −10.64 (1.10) | −6.82 (0.89) | −10.90 (1.11) | −4.25 (1.22) | −9.55 (1.20) |
Uncertainty from exposure to trade | 0.18 * (0.06) | 0.51 * (0.29) | 0.18 * (0.07) | 0.53 * (0.29) | 0.64 * (0.12) | 0.41 (0.29) |
Union density (percent of workforce) | 0.05 * (0.02) | 0.10 * (0.04) | ||||
Union density squared | −0.001 * (0.0003) | −0.002 * (0.001) | ||||
Real per capita personal income (thousands of US dollars) | 0.07 (0.02) | −0.03 (0.03) | ||||
Right-to-work law | −0.39 * (0.11) | −0.30 (0.24) | ||||
Unemployment rate | −0.02 * (0.01) | −0.03 * (0.01) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state citizens | 0.002 (0.001) | −0.005 (0.003) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state government | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | ||||
Wage and salary employees (thousands) | 0.06 * (0.02) | 0.13 * (0.03) | 0.04 * (0.02) | 0.09 * (0.03) | 0.02 (0.03) | 0.13 * (0.03) |
Lagged dependent variable | 0.002 * (0.0001) | 0.004 * (0.001) | 0.002 * (0.0001) | 0.003 * (0.001) | 0.002 * (0.0001) | 0.004 * (0.001) |
Constant | 2.39 * (0.06) | 4.02 * (0.20) | 2.42 * (0.06) | 4.22 * (0.20) | 2.06 * (0.30) | 3.44 * (0.59) |
Observations | 1676 | 849 | 1676 | 849 | 876 | 849 |
1. No Controls | 2. State Fixed Effects | 3. Control Variables | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1947–1981 | 1984–2001 | 1964–1981 | 1984–2001 | |
Manufacturing import sensitivity | −349.65 (2378.31) | 1144.49 (558.76) | 5821.82 (4125.58) | 2643.52 (1085.95) | −554.90 (2055.63) | 1531.43 (599.26) |
Manufacturing export orientation | 577.56 (2100.00) | −2351.20 (999.17) | −6223.53 (4031.84) | −3787.97 (1428.80) | 2708.71 (2016.94) | −1931.94 (1011.13) |
Uncertainty from exposure to trade | 910.54 * (349.47) | 466.01 (295.85) | 975.02 * (331.73) | 484.87 * (286.74) | 1903.82 * (469.38) | 322.19 (298.70) |
Union density (percent of workforce) | 16.11 (21.62) | 0.35 (40.02) | ||||
Union density squared | 0.31 (0.49) | 0.84 (1.55) | ||||
Real per capita personal income (thousands of US dollars) | −45.36 * (15.59) | −1.71 (10.09) | ||||
Right-to-work law | −93.65 * (37.00) | 15.11 (41.96) | ||||
Unemployment rate | −24.72 (23.38) | −15.89 (17.23) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state citizens | 1.44 (2.47) | −0.53 (1.24) | ||||
Ideological orientation of state government | −4.72 (1.72) | −1.20 (0.97) | ||||
Wage and salary employees (thousands) | 0.28 * (0.04) | 0.08 * (0.02) | 0.18 (0.13) | −0.03 (0.10) | 0.25 * (0.05) | 0.06 * (0.02) |
Lagged dependent variable | 0.32 * (0.09) | 0.07 (0.19) | 0.05 (0.09) | −0.05 (0.19) | 0.33 * (0.10) | 0.03 (0.19) |
Constant | −162.94 (124.88) | 22.13 (79.78) | 247.54 (213.26) | 240.99 (168.87) | −148.18 (281.77) | −68.78 (334.56) |
R-squared | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.58 | 0.18 | 0.63 | 0.10 |
Observations | 1674 | 849 | 1674 | 849 | 876 | 849 |
1. No Controls | 2. State Fixed Effects | 3. Control Variables | |
---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing import sensitivity | −2.30 (1.81) | −9.38 * (2.63) | −3.33 * (1.76) |
Manufacturing export orientation | 0.72 (2.90) | −0.21 (4.44) | 0.81 (2.95) |
Percentage of state workforce in manufacturing | 0.01 (0.01) | ||
Right-to-work law | −0.28 * (0.10) | ||
Unemployment rate | −0.08 * (0.03) | ||
Ideological orientation of state citizens | 0.004 (0.004) | ||
Ideological orientation of state government | 0.001 (0.002) | ||
Lagged dependent variable | 0.97 * (0.01) | 0.85 * (0.02) | 0.95 * (0.01) |
Constant | 0.49 * (0.18) | 4.17 * (0.80) | 1.17 * (0.33) |
R-squared | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
Observations | 1849 | 1849 | 1827 |
1. No Controls | 2. State Fixed Effects | 3. Control Variables | |
---|---|---|---|
Change in manufacturing import sensitivity | −0.76 * (0.41) | −0.79 * (0.41) | −0.79 * (0.41) |
Change in manufacturing export orientation | 0.47 (0.47) | 0.47 (0.48) | 0.53 (0.48) |
Change in percentage of state workforce in manufacturing | 0.002 (0.005) | ||
Change in right-to-work law | 0.12 (0.07) | ||
Change in unemployment rate | −0.001 (0.003) | ||
Change in ideological orientation of state citizens | −0.0001 (0.0005) | ||
Change in ideological orientation of state government | 0.0000 (0.0002) | ||
Lagged dependent variable | −0.18 * (0.05) | −0.18 * (0.05) | −0.18 * (0.06) |
Constant | −0.02 * (0.004) | −0.01 (0.01) | −0.02 * (0.01) |
R-squared | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
Observations | 1799 | 1799 | 1777 |
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Abouharb, M.R.; Fordham, B.O. Trade and Strike Activity in the Postwar United States. Soc. Sci. 2020, 9, 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110198
Abouharb MR, Fordham BO. Trade and Strike Activity in the Postwar United States. Social Sciences. 2020; 9(11):198. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110198
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbouharb, M. Rodwan, and Benjamin O. Fordham. 2020. "Trade and Strike Activity in the Postwar United States" Social Sciences 9, no. 11: 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110198
APA StyleAbouharb, M. R., & Fordham, B. O. (2020). Trade and Strike Activity in the Postwar United States. Social Sciences, 9(11), 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9110198