Poverty Risks after Relationship Dissolution and the Role of Children: A Contemporary Longitudinal Analysis of Seven OECD Countries
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Background: Poverty, Relationship Dissolution, and Social Policy
3. Data and Methods
3.1. Dependent Variable
3.2. Independent Variables
Time
3.3. Covariates
3.4. The Models
4. Results
5. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Model | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pooled | Pooled | Women | Men | Women | Men | |
Prior to separation | ||||||
Slope | 0.992 | 0.975 | 0.928 | 0.792 ** | 0.951 | 0.785 ** |
(0.013) | (0.018) | (0.055) | (0.065) | (0.057) | (0.065) | |
Slope x Women | 1.019 | |||||
(0.023) | ||||||
Slope x Country | ||||||
Australia | 1.072 | 1.273 ** | 1.042 | 1.278 ** | ||
(0.073) | (0.111) | (0.072) | (0.112) | |||
Korea | 1.021 | 1.377 ** | 0.949 | 1.331 ** | ||
(0.079) | (0.135) | (0.076) | (0.133) | |||
USA | 1.125 | 1.274 * | 1.097 | 1.282 * | ||
(0.081) | (0.122) | (0.080) | (0.124) | |||
Russia | 1.017 | 1.175 | 0.989 | 1.190 | ||
(0.070) | (0.112) | (0.070) | (0.114) | |||
Switzerland | 1.045 | 1.092 | 0.999 | 1.117 | ||
(0.079) | (0.105) | (0.078) | (0.110) | |||
UK | 1.147 * | 1.285 ** | 1.123 | 1.301 ** | ||
(0.076) | (0.115) | (0.076) | (0.117) | |||
Children in HH | 0.219 ** | 1.484 | ||||
(0.115) | (1.055) | |||||
Children in HH x Country | ||||||
Australia | 4.007 * | 0.836 | ||||
(2.346) | (0.625) | |||||
Korea | 2.103 | 0.409 | ||||
(1.437) | (0.352) | |||||
USA | 4.117 * | 1.264 | ||||
(2.667) | (1.041) | |||||
Russia | 4.942 ** | 1.118 | ||||
(2.936) | (0.884) | |||||
Switzerland | 3.993 * | 9.996 ** | ||||
(2.617) | (8.878) | |||||
UK | 5.659 ** | 1.552 | ||||
(3.218) | (1.167) | |||||
Postseparation | ||||||
Intercept Change | 3.229 *** | 1.144 | 17.343 *** | 3.890 *** | 4.931 *** | 3.987 * |
(0.205) | (0.118) | (5.016) | (1.571) | (2.250) | (2.751) | |
Slope Change | 0.912 *** | 0.985 | 0.634 *** | 0.919 | 0.611 *** | 0.926 |
(0.018) | (0.032) | (0.059) | (0.138) | (0.058) | (0.139) | |
Intercept Change x Women | 5.069 *** | |||||
(0.673) | ||||||
Slope Change x Women | 0.900 ** | |||||
(0.036) | ||||||
Intercept Change x Country | ||||||
Australia | 0.349 ** | 0.313 ** | 1.169 | 0.259 | ||
(0.124) | (0.139) | (0.604) | (0.188) | |||
Korea | 0.187 *** | 0.176 ** | 0.263 * | 0.133 * | ||
(0.089) | (0.097) | (0.167) | (0.108) | |||
USA | 0.132 *** | 0.125 *** | 0.345 | 0.111 ** | ||
(0.052) | (0.066) | (0.207) | (0.093) | |||
Russia | 0.189 *** | 0.224 ** | 0.525 | 0.260 | ||
(0.067) | (0.111) | (0.282) | (0.200) | |||
Switzerland | 0.690 | 0.133 *** | 1.342 | 0.287 | ||
(0.288) | (0.076) | (0.759) | (0.246) | |||
UK | 0.321 *** | 0.453 | 0.687 | 0.488 | ||
(0.105) | (0.202) | (0.343) | (0.357) | |||
Slope Change x Country | ||||||
Australia | 1.251 * | 0.982 | 1.298 * | 0.990 | ||
(0.137) | (0.158) | (0.143) | (0.160) | |||
Korea | 1.611 *** | 0.860 | 1.818 *** | 0.878 | ||
(0.209) | (0.160) | (0.243) | (0.164) | |||
USA | 1.581 *** | 1.156 | 1.650 *** | 1.135 | ||
(0.201) | (0.217) | (0.211) | (0.215) | |||
Russia | 1.553 *** | 1.319 | 1.619 *** | 1.342 | ||
(0.172) | (0.236) | (0.181) | (0.242) | |||
Switzerland | 1.375 ** | 1.434 | 1.449 ** | 1.367 | ||
(0.166) | (0.274) | (0.178) | (0.264) | |||
UK | 1.457 *** | 1.034 | 1.528 *** | 1.018 | ||
(0.151) | (0.170) | (0.160) | (0.167) | |||
Intercept Change x | 4.532 *** | 0.842 | ||||
Children in HH | (2.020) | (0.620) | ||||
Intercept Change x Children in HH x Country | ||||||
Australia | 0.242 ** | 1.305 | ||||
(0.127) | (1.043) | |||||
Korea | 1.783 | 1.965 | ||||
(1.291) | (1.796) | |||||
USA | 0.338 | 1.664 | ||||
(0.199) | (1.518) | |||||
Russia | 0.319 * | 0.782 | ||||
(0.174) | (0.662) | |||||
Switzerland | 0.892 | 0.730 | ||||
(0.542) | (0.723) | |||||
UK | 0.486 | 1.206 | ||||
(0.240) | (0.981) | |||||
Covariates | ||||||
Education (ref. higher) | ||||||
Lower | 1.421 | 1.432 | 1.379 | 1.008 | 1.265 | 0.987 |
(0.272) | (0.279) | (0.349) | (0.360) | (0.321) | (0.356) | |
Medium | 1.068 | 1.139 | 1.193 | 0.987 | 1.120 | 0.946 |
(0.158) | (0.172) | (0.213) | (0.308) | (0.201) | (0.301) | |
Weekly hours worked | 0.956 *** | 0.950 *** | 0.946 *** | 0.950 *** | 0.944 *** | 0.949 *** |
(0.005) | (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.008) | (0.006) | (0.009) | |
Weekly hours worked (sq) | 1.000 *** | 1.000 *** | 1.000 *** | 1.000 *** | 1.000 *** | 1.000 *** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
Socioeconomic incex (ISEI08) | 0.987 *** | 0.987 *** | 0.991 ** | 0.980 *** | 0.991 ** | 0.981 *** |
(0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.004) | |
Age (ref. 18–25) | ||||||
26–35 | 0.701 *** | 0.734 ** | 0.754 * | 0.763 | 0.770 * | 0.745 |
(0.068) | (0.073) | (0.100) | (0.122) | (0.102) | (0.120) | |
36–45 | 0.760 | 0.780 | 0.884 | 0.705 | 0.829 | 0.717 |
(0.114) | (0.119) | (0.177) | (0.178) | (0.168) | (0.183) | |
46–55 | 0.947 | 0.925 | 0.875 | 1.100 | 0.788 | 1.109 |
(0.193) | (0.191) | (0.233) | (0.373) | (0.212) | (0.381) | |
56–65 | 1.224 | 1.183 | 1.044 | 1.526 | 1.220 | 1.502 |
(0.341) | (0.334) | (0.386) | (0.700) | (0.452) | (0.694) | |
Children in HH | 2.019 *** | 1.558 *** | 1.367 ** | 1.843 *** | ||
(0.138) | (0.110) | (0.140) | (0.191) | |||
Observations | 16,456 | 16,456 | 10,422 | 6034 | 10,422 | 6034 |
Number of respondents | 2493 | 2493 | 1595 | 898 | 1595 | 898 |
LR chisq | 775 *** | 1073 *** | 1066 *** | 220 *** | 1130 *** | 255 *** |
DF | 13 | 16 | 31 | 31 | 44 | 44 |
Log likelihood | −5719 | −5570 | −3363 | −2099 | −3332 | −2082 |
AIC | 11,464 | 11,172 | 6789 | 4261 | 6752 | 4252 |
BIC | 11,564 | 11,295 | 7014 | 4469 | 7071 | 4547 |
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Country | Incidence | Grounds c | Determined by | Amount | Duration | Exists for Cohabitation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | Uncommon | Limited circumstances | Court | Minimal | Usually a short period of time | No |
Korea | Non-existent | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
USA b | Common | Limited circumstances | Partners, Mediator, Court | Individually determined | Set date or certain life course events a | No |
Russia | Uncommon | Limited circumstances | Court | Sufficient for living needs | Discretion of the court | No |
Switzerland | Uncommon | Limited circumstances | Court | Sufficient for living needs | Usually limited duration | No |
Germany | Common | Limited circumstances | Court | Individually determined | Individually determined | No |
UK | Common | Limited circumstances | Court | Sufficient for living needs | Depends on marriage duration and events (remarriage) | Yes |
Country | Involvement in the Determination of Child Maintenance | Responsibility for Determining Maintenance Payments | Rules for Determining the Amount of Payments | Enforcement of Payments | Different for Children of Unmarried Parents | Age at Which Support Ends | Advance on Maintenance Payments | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parents | Court | Agency | |||||||
Australia | Yes—formal system if parents cannot agree | Yes (residual role) | Yes—CSA | Parents or CSA | Rules/rigid formula | CSA | No | 18 years or end of schooling | No |
Korea | Yes—ratified by court | Yes | No | Parents or Court if parental disagreement | Mostly discretion, no fixed rules or methods | Court | No | Parental agreement or 20 years | No |
USA | Yes—ratified by court | Yes | Yes—CSA (varies by state) | Court | Formal guidelines | Court and CSA | No | Varies across states (16–25) | No |
Russia | Yes—formal system if parents cannot agree | Yes (residual role) | No | Parents or court if parental disagreement | Rules in case of disagreement | Court | No | 18 years | Yes |
Switzerland | Yes—ratified by court | Yes | No | Parents with supervision of lawyers or court | Rules | Court | Yes | 18 years or end of education | Yes |
Germany | Yes | Yes | No | Parents or court if parental disagreement | Mostly discretion, using “support tables” | Court | Yes | 18 years | Yes |
UK | Yes—ratified by court | Yes (residual role) | Yes—CSA | Parents or CSA | Rules/rigid formula | Court and CSA | No | 16 years or 19 years if in full time education | Yes |
Women (Obs. = 10,422; N = 1595) | Men (Obs. = 6034; N = 898) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
Time to/since factual separation | −1.32 | 3.94 | −10 | 7 | −0.99 | 3.88 | −10 | 7 |
ISEI08 b | 40.37 | 14.76 | 10 | 89 | 39.66 | 13.96 | 10 | 89 |
Weekly work hours | 31.80 | 14.61 | 0 | 120 | 42.15 | 14.04 | 0 | 119 |
% | % | |||||||
AROP c | 33% | 31% | ||||||
Country | ||||||||
Australia | 20% | 31% | ||||||
Korea | 5% | 8% | ||||||
USA | 8% | 9% | ||||||
Russia | 14% | 11% | ||||||
Switzerland | 10% | 8% | ||||||
Germany | 10% | 7% | ||||||
UK | 33% | 26% | ||||||
Educational attainment | ||||||||
Low | 16% | 21% | ||||||
Medium | 54% | 58% | ||||||
High | 30% | 21% | ||||||
Age | ||||||||
18–25 | 13% | 13% | ||||||
26–35 | 31% | 31% | ||||||
36–45 | 33% | 29% | ||||||
46–55 | 19% | 21% | ||||||
56–65 | 4% | 6% | ||||||
Children living in the household a | 64% | 51% |
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Thielemans, G.; Mortelmans, D. Poverty Risks after Relationship Dissolution and the Role of Children: A Contemporary Longitudinal Analysis of Seven OECD Countries. Soc. Sci. 2022, 11, 138. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030138
Thielemans G, Mortelmans D. Poverty Risks after Relationship Dissolution and the Role of Children: A Contemporary Longitudinal Analysis of Seven OECD Countries. Social Sciences. 2022; 11(3):138. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030138
Chicago/Turabian StyleThielemans, Gert, and Dimitri Mortelmans. 2022. "Poverty Risks after Relationship Dissolution and the Role of Children: A Contemporary Longitudinal Analysis of Seven OECD Countries" Social Sciences 11, no. 3: 138. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030138