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Article

Superiority of Mild Interventions against COVID-19 on Public Health and Economic Measures

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Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, 2-150, Iwakura-cho, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-8570, Japan
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Discovery Research Laboratories, Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd., Nishinosho-Monguchicho 14, Minami-ku, Kyoto 601-8550, Japan
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TDB Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan
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Retty, Inc., Sumitomo Fudosan Azabujuban Building 3F 1-4-1 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-0073, Japan
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Faculty of Business Administration, Ritsumeikan University, 2-150, Iwakura-cho, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-8570, Japan
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Life Style by Design Research Unit, Institute for Future Initiatives, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
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Center for Research and Education on Drug Discovery, The Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0812, Japan
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Giampiero Mazzaglia and Rosa Gini
J. Pers. Med. 2021, 11(8), 719; https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11080719
Received: 9 May 2021 / Revised: 17 July 2021 / Accepted: 23 July 2021 / Published: 26 July 2021
(1) Background: During the global spread of COVID-19, Japan has been among the top countries to maintain a relatively low number of infections, despite implementing limited institutional interventions and its high population density. This study investigated how limited intervention policies have affected public health and economic conditions in the COVID-19 context and aimed to gain insight into the effective and sustainable measures against new infectious diseases in densely inhabited areas. (2) Methods: A system dynamics approach was employed. Qualitative causal loop analysis and stock and quantitative flow model analysis were performed, using a Tokyo Metropolitan area dataset. (3) Results: A causal loop analysis suggested that there were risks in prematurely terminating such interventions. Based on this result and the subsequent quantitative modeling, we found that the short-term effectiveness of a short-term pre-emptive stay-at-home request caused a resurgence in the number of positive cases, whereas an additional request provided a limited negative add-on effect for economic measures (e.g., number of electronic word-of-mouth communications and restaurant visits). (4) Conclusions: These findings suggest the superiority of a mild and continuous intervention as a long-term countermeasure under epidemic pressures when compared with strong intermittent interventions. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; novel infectious diseases; public health and social measures; non-pharmaceutical intervention; system dynamics; people flow analysis; electronic word-of-mouth COVID-19; novel infectious diseases; public health and social measures; non-pharmaceutical intervention; system dynamics; people flow analysis; electronic word-of-mouth
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MDPI and ACS Style

Niwa, M.; Hara, Y.; Matsuo, Y.; Narita, H.; Lim, Y.; Sengoku, S.; Kodama, K. Superiority of Mild Interventions against COVID-19 on Public Health and Economic Measures. J. Pers. Med. 2021, 11, 719. https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11080719

AMA Style

Niwa M, Hara Y, Matsuo Y, Narita H, Lim Y, Sengoku S, Kodama K. Superiority of Mild Interventions against COVID-19 on Public Health and Economic Measures. Journal of Personalized Medicine. 2021; 11(8):719. https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11080719

Chicago/Turabian Style

Niwa, Makoto, Yasushi Hara, Yusuke Matsuo, Hodaka Narita, Yeongjoo Lim, Shintaro Sengoku, and Kota Kodama. 2021. "Superiority of Mild Interventions against COVID-19 on Public Health and Economic Measures" Journal of Personalized Medicine 11, no. 8: 719. https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11080719

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