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Article

Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea
2
Microbial Safety Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Rural Development Administration, Wanju 55365, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Academic Editor: Eric R. May
Life 2021, 11(12), 1332; https://doi.org/10.3390/life11121332
Received: 28 October 2021 / Revised: 19 November 2021 / Accepted: 30 November 2021 / Published: 2 December 2021
(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change and Infectious Disease)
As incidences of food poisoning, especially norovirus-induced diarrhea, are associated with climate change, there is a need for an approach that can be used to predict the risks of such illnesses with high accuracy. In this paper, we predict the winter norovirus incidence rate in Korea compared to that of other diarrhea-causing viruses using a model based on B-spline added to logistic regression to estimate the long-term pattern of illness. We also develop a risk index based on the estimated probability of occurrence. Our probabilistic analysis shows that the risk of norovirus-related food poisoning in winter will remain stable or increase in Korea based on various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our approach can be used to obtain an overview of the changes occurring in regional and seasonal norovirus patterns that can help assist in making appropriate policy decisions. View Full-Text
Keywords: norovirus; climate change; relative risk; generalized additive logistic model norovirus; climate change; relative risk; generalized additive logistic model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kim, T.-K.; Paek, J.; Kim, H.-Y.; Choi, I. Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea. Life 2021, 11, 1332. https://doi.org/10.3390/life11121332

AMA Style

Kim T-K, Paek J, Kim H-Y, Choi I. Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea. Life. 2021; 11(12):1332. https://doi.org/10.3390/life11121332

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kim, Tae-Kyoung, Jayeong Paek, Hwang-Yong Kim, and Ilsu Choi. 2021. "Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea" Life 11, no. 12: 1332. https://doi.org/10.3390/life11121332

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