A Fundamental Economic Assessment of Recovering Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals from Acid Mine Drainage Using a Network Sourcing Strategy
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials, Process, and Methods
2.1. Process Description
2.2. Techno-Economic Analysis for the Recovery of REEs and CMs from AMD
- All amounts are in USD.
- The total operational period for the plant is 20 years.
- Inflation was applied to sales revenue and operating costs using a fixed rate of 3% per year.
- Capital costs are spread over a period not to exceed three years, and the allocation between those three years is 10%, 60%, and 30% for years one through three, respectively. Thus, the total analysis period (capital purchase plus operating) is not to exceed 23 years.
- During the capital expenditure period, capital costs escalate at a constant rate of 3.6% per year.
- The project is debt financed for 50% of the total overnight capital requirement; the remaining 50% is financed by equity.
- The debt repayment terms include: 6% interest rate, 10-year loan period, and no grace period on debt repayment. The re-payment uses a standard amortization schedule with constant payments throughout the payoff period.
- Working capital is not included in this estimate and will instead be borne by the operating entity at no cost to the project.
- The combined federal and local tax rate is fixed at 26%.
- All capital is depreciable, using a 150% declining balance depreciation schedule over 20 years. The depreciation method was not changed to straight line when conditions favored the switch.
- The mineral depletion rate for REEs is 14%. Depletion is charged at the appropriate rate times the net sales revenue after deducting royalties and any severance tax, provided that the total amount calculated by depletion rates does not exceed 50% of the taxable income before depletion.
- The plant is part of a larger commercial entity with sufficient revenue to offset negative taxable income. Thus, losses are not carried forward and are instead calculated as a “negative tax” that indicates the reduction in tax burden required for overall entity.
- No royalties are charged for the productions of REEs, as this cost is assumed to be borne with the feedstock acquisition costs.
- All production is assumed to be sold.
2.2.1. Operating Cost Estimate
- Materials, Reagents, and Consumables;
- Energy;
- Labor;
- Capital Spares.
2.2.2. Capital Cost Estimate
2.2.3. Financial and Sensitivity Analysis
- Complete Processing Plant (REEs, Co, Mn, and mischmetal);
- REE plant, with no mischmetal;
- REE, Co plant, with no mischmetal;
- REE, Co, Mn plant, with no mischmetal;
- Only salable products are the magnet REEs (Pr, Nd, Tb, Dy), Y, Sc, Co and Mn.
- September 2021 Pricing;
- December 2020 Pricing;
- Minimum Pricing, Period 2014–2021;
- Maximum Pricing, Period 2014–2021.
3. Results, Discussion, and Recommendations
3.1. Engineering Study Summary
3.2. Financial Analysis
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis
3.4. Implication of the Results
4. Conclusions
- The contained value of pre-concentrated AMD produced from passive two-stage precipitation (US 2021/0017625 A1) ranged from USD 751 to USD 1786 per metric ton when using the minimum and maximum prices over the last decade. The contained value was determined to be USD 1575 per metric ton using contemporary (September 2021) prices. These values are commensurate with or even superior to conventional REE ore deposits currently under consideration.
- The REE basket price of AMD pre-concentrate was determined to be USD 60.76/kg REE when using contemporary oxide prices. This value is nearly two times that of conventional REE sources, including ion adsorption clays found in South China [60]. This value is largely due to the high content of critical and magnet REEs, including Y, Nd, Pr, and Tb, which collectively constitute over 54% of the total REE content.
- Depending on the plant configuration, the production capacity ranges from 212 to 444 mtpy REE, 157 mtpy Co, and 5653 mtpy Mn. This value is significantly below that of conventional REE separation plants; however, this level of production may be crucial in establishing a baseline for national security purposes. An assessment of the pre-concentrate feed requirements needed for this level of production show that the volume is well within the estimated flows of AMD within the Appalachian region.
- The results of this analysis show that, with the exception of the minimum price scenario, all operational configurations have positive economic indicators with rates of return varying from 25% to 32% for the contemporary price scenario. The optimal configuration was determined to include production Co, Mn, and all REEs except for mischmetal, which is not recovered. The magnet REE, Sc, Y, and CM-only configuration, which is deemed to be the most likely given future demand scenarios, yielded a positive rate of return in all scenarios.
- Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the project capital cost and HCl consumption were the only two project parameters that produced a significant impact on overall profitability. This result suggests that further optimization of process design may impart significant financial gains to the enterprise (i.e., the low capital cost estimate produce a 5 percentage point increase to rate of return). Notably, additional research and development on the use of ionic liquids [59], rather than solvent-based extractants may produce simultaneous and synergistic improvement of these two parameters.
- While the economic results are moderately favorable under most scenarios, the level of project risk is significant, particularly considering the possibility of prolonged price disruptions. To mitigate this risk, one option could re-frame the sourcing strategy to one of supplier-buyer cooperative whereby the profits are shared between the investor, the operator, and the feedstock suppliers. Given the nature of AMD treatment in the US, which can often include a mix of government and private liability holders, this approach would inevitably require strong public-private partnerships. Nevertheless, this approach will both incentivize AMD treatment and promote economic development in regions that have been most impacted by declining coal production, while mitigating a national security need.
- To better identify and quantify the environmental, social, and governance, benefit of the proposed approach, additional study should address stakeholder assessments, regional economic impact, environmental justice considerations, product life cycle analysis, and legal implications and barriers. Given the promising economic indicators identified at this stage, the research team will evaluate these and other factors as the project progresses.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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EHEHPA | CA-12 | CA-12,C272 | C-572 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Source | [51] | [52] | [52] | [53] |
Reference Element | La | Y | Y | La |
La | 1 | * | * | 1 |
Ce | 6.8 | * | * | 5.9 |
Pr | 13.9 | * | * | 9.5 |
Nd | 21.5 | * | * | 14.6 |
Sm | 227.8 | * | * | 101 |
Eu | 341.7 | * | * | 189 |
Gd | 1982 | 3.73 | 1.97 | 252 |
Tb | >2000 | 3.09 | 1.86 | 612 |
Dy | >2000 | 2.44 | 1.75 | 1014 |
Ho | >2000 | 1.73 | 1.41 | 1308 |
Er | >2000 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 2013 |
Tm | >2000 | 1.36 | 2.51 | 3961 |
Yb | >2000 | 1.25 | 5.09 | 5611 |
Lu | >2000 | 1.06 | 6.55 | 9583 |
Y | >2000 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 1713 |
Sc | >2000 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 38,334 |
Direct Cost | Typical Range | Selected Factor |
---|---|---|
Instrumentation and Controls | 10%–20% | 10% |
Piping | 20%–70% | 15% |
Electrical | 10% | 10% |
Building and Structure | 20%–30% | 20% |
Property Improvements | 10% | 10% |
Utilities | 20%–50% | 20% |
Product | 2020 Price | 2021 Price | Min Price | Max Price |
---|---|---|---|---|
MREO | $26.65 | $39.05 | $16.13 | $47.46 |
M-HREO | $73.22 | $117.47 | $46.93 | $143.12 |
Nd(Pr) micro powder | $69.65 | $129.11 | $51.60 | $129.11 |
Y Metal micro powder | $39.77 | $40.13 | $24.72 | $40.13 |
Mischmetal micro powder | $20.45 | $4.89 | $3.27 | $20.45 |
Cobalt micro powder | $41.67 | $58.60 | $23.77 | $58.60 |
Sm micro powder | $18.40 | $15.01 | $13.25 | $15.01 |
Crude EuSO4 | $7.50 | $7.87 | $7.45 | $7.87 |
Gd metal micro powder | $56.81 | $72.31 | $24.21 | $72.31 |
Tb metal micro powder | $738.58 | $1867.41 | $511.19 | $1867.41 |
Dy metal micro powder | $340.88 | $579.23 | $251.59 | $579.23 |
Ho metal micro powder | $695.03 | $768.62 | $315.14 | $768.62 |
Er metal micro powder | $107.95 | $116.66 | $39.24 | $116.66 |
Tm metal micro powder | $857.29 | $925.77 | $379.57 | $925.77 |
Yb metal micro powder | $228.28 | $229.18 | $93.96 | $229.18 |
Lu metal micro powder | $3298.76 | $3451.32 | $1415.04 | $3451.32 |
Sc metal micro powder | $3976.99 | $3314.83 | $1359.08 | $3314.83 |
Manganese oxide | $1.97 | $1.97 | $1.58 | $3.20 |
Element | Composition |
---|---|
Al | 5.03% |
Si | 19.03% |
S | 3.93% |
Ca | 4.92% |
Sc | 0.002% |
Mn | 13.32% |
Fe | 8.62 × 10% |
Co | 0.390% |
Y | 0.219% |
La | 0.077% |
Ce | 0.220% |
Pr | 0.030% |
Nd | 0.148% |
Sm | 0.038% |
Eu | 0.010% |
Gd | 0.053% |
Tb | 0.008% |
Dy | 0.046% |
Ho | 0.009% |
Er | 0.022% |
Tm | 0.0028% |
Yb | 0.016% |
Lu | 0.002% |
2020 Price | 2021 Price | Min Price | Max Price | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-Concentrate Contained Value | $1242 | $1575 | $751 | $1786 |
Plant Configuration | Capital Cost | Operating Cost |
---|---|---|
MM USD | MM USD/Year | |
Complete Facility | $185.81 | $21.35 |
REE, w/no Mischmetal | $130.79 | $17.54 |
REE, Co, w/no Mischmetal | $148.60 | $18.50 |
REE, Co, Mn, w/no Mischmetal | $154.83 | $20.47 |
Magnet REE, Y, Sc, Co, Mn | $142.20 | $20.47 |
Plant Configuration | REE | Co | Mn |
---|---|---|---|
mtpy | mtpy | mtpy | |
Complete Facility | 444 | 157 | 5653 |
REE, w/no Mischmetal | 290 | - | - |
REE, Co, w/no Mischmetal | 290 | 157 | - |
REE, Co, Mn, w/no Mischmetal | 290 | 157 | 5653 |
Magnet REE, Y, Sc, Co, Mn | 212 | 157 | 5653 |
Plant Configuration | September | December | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|
(in MM USD) | 2021 | 2020 | 2014–2021 | 2014–2021 |
Complete Facility | $70.46 | $56.07 | $33.39 | $79.83 |
REE, w/no Mischmetal | $49.42 | $35.26 | $20.25 | $49.42 |
REE, Co, w/no Mischmetal | $58.59 | $41.78 | $23.97 | $58.59 |
REE, Co, Mn, w/no Mischmetal | $69.70 | $52.92 | $32.89 | $76.68 |
Magnet REE, Y, Sc, Co, Mn | $56.58 | $40.77 | $27.58 | $63.55 |
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Larochelle, T.; Noble, A.; Ziemkiewicz, P.; Hoffman, D.; Constant, J. A Fundamental Economic Assessment of Recovering Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals from Acid Mine Drainage Using a Network Sourcing Strategy. Minerals 2021, 11, 1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/min11111298
Larochelle T, Noble A, Ziemkiewicz P, Hoffman D, Constant J. A Fundamental Economic Assessment of Recovering Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals from Acid Mine Drainage Using a Network Sourcing Strategy. Minerals. 2021; 11(11):1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/min11111298
Chicago/Turabian StyleLarochelle, Tommee, Aaron Noble, Paul Ziemkiewicz, David Hoffman, and James Constant. 2021. "A Fundamental Economic Assessment of Recovering Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals from Acid Mine Drainage Using a Network Sourcing Strategy" Minerals 11, no. 11: 1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/min11111298
APA StyleLarochelle, T., Noble, A., Ziemkiewicz, P., Hoffman, D., & Constant, J. (2021). A Fundamental Economic Assessment of Recovering Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals from Acid Mine Drainage Using a Network Sourcing Strategy. Minerals, 11(11), 1298. https://doi.org/10.3390/min11111298