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Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

by Marcin Szpyrka 1,*,† and Bartosz Jasiul 2,†
1
Department of Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
2
Cyber Security Laboratory, Military Communication Institute, ul. Warszawska 22a, 05-130 Zegrze, Poland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Academic Editor: Young-Sik Jeong
Symmetry 2017, 9(3), 32; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym9030032
Received: 27 November 2016 / Accepted: 22 February 2017 / Published: 26 February 2017
This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On the
basis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class provides
a formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations between
nodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relations
between components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in various
branches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it can
be adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionally
proposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, we
show the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security Threats
Evaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented as
well as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it is
possible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all related
nodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk assessment; risk propagation; Petri nets; propagation nets, formal methods risk assessment; risk propagation; Petri nets; propagation nets, formal methods
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Szpyrka, M.; Jasiul, B. Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets. Symmetry 2017, 9, 32.

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