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Symmetry 2018, 10(7), 245; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10070245

A Forecasting Model Based on Multi-Valued Neutrosophic Sets and Two-Factor, Third-Order Fuzzy Fluctuation Logical Relationships

1
School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China
2
School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
3
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 May 2018 / Revised: 17 June 2018 / Accepted: 25 June 2018 / Published: 28 June 2018
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Abstract

Making predictions according to historical values has long been regarded as common practice by many researchers. However, forecasting solely based on historical values could lead to inevitable over-complexity and uncertainty due to the uncertainties inside, and the random influence outside, of the data. Consequently, finding the inherent rules and patterns of a time series by eliminating disturbances without losing important details has long been a research hotspot. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting model based on multi-valued neutrosophic sets to find fluctuation rules and patterns of a time series. The contributions of the proposed model are: (1) using a multi-valued neutrosophic set (MVNS) to describe the fluctuation patterns of a time series, the model could represent the fluctuation trend of up, equal, and down with degrees of truth, indeterminacy, and falsity which significantly preserve details of the historical values; (2) measuring the similarities of different fluctuation patterns by the Hamming distance could avoid the confusion caused by incomplete information from limited samples; and (3) introducing another related time series as a secondary factor to avoid warp and deviation in inferring inherent rules of historical values, which could lead to more comprehensive rules for further forecasting. To evaluate the performance of the model, we explored the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) as the major factor we forecast, and the Dow Jones Index as the secondary factor to facilitate the predicting of the TAIEX. To show the universality of the model, we applied the proposed model to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI) as well. View Full-Text
Keywords: fuzzy time series; forecasting; two-factor fuzzy logical relationship; multi-valued neutrosophic set; Hamming distance fuzzy time series; forecasting; two-factor fuzzy logical relationship; multi-valued neutrosophic set; Hamming distance
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Guan, H.; He, J.; Zhao, A.; Dai, Z.; Guan, S. A Forecasting Model Based on Multi-Valued Neutrosophic Sets and Two-Factor, Third-Order Fuzzy Fluctuation Logical Relationships. Symmetry 2018, 10, 245.

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