Study on the Relationship Between Landscape Features and Water Eutrophication in the Liangzi Lake Basin Based on the XGBoost Machine Learning Algorithm and the SHAP Interpretability Method

Lake eutrophication exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity at the watershed scale, yet a systematic and quantitative understanding of how landscape characteristics drive these variations remains limited. In this study, a long-term and internally consistent trophic state dataset for the Liangzi Lake Basin was constructed by integrating Landsat imagery from 1990 to 2022 with a semi-analytical water color inversion method. A multi-scale landscape feature system incorporating both land use composition and landscape pattern metrics was developed at the sub-basin level to elucidate the mechanisms by which landscape characteristics influence eutrophication dynamics. The XGBoost model was employed to characterize the nonlinear relationships between landscape attributes and trophic conditions, while the SHAP interpretability approach was applied to quantify the relative contribution of individual landscape components and their interaction pathways. The analytical framework demonstrates that landscape pattern attributes—such as fragmentation, diversity, and connectivity—play essential roles in shaping the spatial variability of eutrophication by modulating hydrological processes, nutrient transport, and ecological buffering capacity. By integrating remote sensing observations with interpretable machine learning, the study reveals the complexity and scale dependence of landscape–water interactions, providing a methodological foundation for advancing the understanding of eutrophication drivers. The findings offer theoretical guidance and practical references for optimizing watershed landscape planning, controlling non-point source pollution, and supporting ecological restoration efforts in lake basins.