Incorporating Future Ecosystem Services to Assess the Progress of Sustainable Development Goals in Southern Jiangsu, China

Urban expansion in southern Jiangsu is intensifying the conflict between ecological protection and economic growth, hindering the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, we have not yet seen the development of a framework combining land use/land cover (LULC) simulation, ecosystem service (ES) quantification, and SDG assessment; there is an especially limited understanding of future ES dynamics and their potential to support the SDGs. In this study, we used the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate and quantify carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ) in southern Jiangsu, China, under four 2030 scenarios: business as usual scenario (BAUS), ecological protection redline scenario (EPRS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and economic development scenario (EDS). Additionally, we assessed the contributions of these ESs in advancing SDGs, guided by the ES-SDG target-SDG linkages. The results revealed a pronounced trade-off between WY and HQ, where the EDS, promoting the highest WY increase (+4.54%), caused the most severe degradation in CS (−5.86%) and HQ (−4.39%). In contrast, the EPRS optimally balanced multiple ESs, enhancing CS (+1.62%) and WY (+2.26%) over the BAUS. Spatially, ESs and the derived SDG index were superior in forested and agricultural clusters compared to urban cores. Overall, the SDG index declined most under the EDS and improved most under the EPRS, highlighting the EPRS as the most sustainable pathway. The sustainability performance regarding SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) was higher than that regarding SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), with Changzhou and Zhenjiang exceeding Suzhou. This study examined the contribution of ESs to the SDGs through four 2030 scenarios, offering insights to guide regional sustainable development.