Dynamics of Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Loss in the Trnava District (Slovakia): A CORINE Land Cover-Based Modelling Approach

This study analyses long-term land cover changes in the Trnava District, Slovakia, with particular emphasis on urban expansion and agricultural land loss. CORINE Land Cover datasets from 1990, 2006 and 2018 were analysed in the TerrSet Land Change Modeler environment, and future land cover development up to 2064 was simulated using a CA–Markov modelling framework. The model incorporated four spatial explanatory variables: distance from built-up areas, distance from the road network, distance from wate courses, and elevation. Between 1990 and 2018, Non-irrigated arable land recorded the largest absolute net loss, decreasing by 962 ha (−1.9%). Urban and industrial categories expanded during the same period: Industrial or commercial units increased by 456 ha (+75.2%), Discontinuous urban fabric by 378 ha (+7.7%), and Continuous urban fabric by 70 ha (+175.0%). Broad-leaved forest increased by 796 ha (+6.9%), whereas Transitional woodland-shrub decreased by 487 ha (−76.7%), demonstrating that gross gains and losses within individual categories did not necessarily correspond to their net area changes. The scenario-based projection to 2064 indicates a continued reduction in arable land and further expansion of discontinuous urban fabric and industrial or commercial areas, particularly around existing settlements and transport corridors. The results demonstrate the simultaneous effects of urbanisation, agricultural land conversion and changes in semi-natural and forest categories. The study highlights the importance of distinguishing gross land cover turnover from net area change and provides spatially explicit information to support agricultural land protection, spatial planning and sustainable landscape management in rapidly urbanising regions.