Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Carbon–Water Coupling Coordination in the Dongping Lake Basin from 1990 to 2020

The Dongping Lake Basin (DLB) serves as a critical water regulation and supply zone for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China. Understanding the coupling effects and influence mechanisms between ecosystem services is essential for regional ecological restoration and sustainable development. This study employed the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, Random Forest, and Geodetector. We analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of the relationship between carbon storage and water yield in the DLB from 1990 to 2020. The results showed that: (1) Carbon storage and water yield exhibited a pronounced spatial mismatch. This was generally characterized by a pattern of high in the eastern/northeastern regions and low in the west/southwest. (2) The overall coordination between carbon storage and water yield remained at a medium-to-low level. Temporally, the CCD followed a trajectory of initial stability, abrupt decline post-2000, and subsequent low-level stagnation. Spatially, the CCD presented an agglomeration gradient of “high in the northeast and low in the southwest”. It also exhibited a significant positive correlation with rising elevation, peaking in mid-to-high altitude zones. Furthermore, the overall coupling relationship showed a continuous degradation trend, heavily concentrated in the southwestern region. (3) Land use type and topographic slope were the primary driving factors shaping the CCD pattern. However, the synergistic interaction between precipitation and soil sand content demonstrated the strongest spatial explanatory power. This underscores the necessity of adapting localized management to specific environmental conditions. This study provides scientific support for carbon sink enhancement and water resource management in lake basins, thereby mitigating potential negative impacts on human well-being.