Structural Transformation or Crisis? The Dynamics of Cultivated Land Abandonment and Reuse in China’s Rural Development, 1992–2022

The study investigates whether cultivated land abandonment (CLA) reflects structural transformation or an intensifying crisis. CLA is defined as land that has remained uncultivated for a minimum of two consecutive years, with the exclusion of land that is subject to deliberate programs such as the “Grain-for-Green” initiative. Utilizing the China Land Cover Dataset and a moving-window approach, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal patterns across 2847 Chinese counties from 1992 to 2022. The research employed OLS, Tobit, high-dimensional fixed effects and instrumental variable regressions. The findings of the present study indicate an annual average abandonment rate of 2.3995%, with 12.3649% of cropland abandoned at least once and 9.2028% reclaimed, suggesting a fragile equilibrium. The Huang-Huai-Hai region and Northeast China’s plains emerged as low-abandonment clusters. Cropland fragmentation was found to trigger abandonment, while a higher ecological land ratio significantly exacerbates CLA. Rural labor migration and urbanization drive cumulative abandonment, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective governance requires context-specific interventions that address key constraints and integrate land reuse into sustainable rural development frameworks. The research methods and theoretical mechanisms presented offer a reference for balancing food security, rural revitalization, and ecological sustainability worldwide.