Sustainable Agricultural Development in China: An Empirical Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Evolution, Regional Differences, and Convergence Mechanisms

With the increasing constraints of resource and environmental factors and the prominent issues of regional development imbalance, how to scientifically measure the level of agricultural sustainable development and reveal its spatial-temporal differentiation patterns has become a key scientific question that urgently needs to be addressed in optimizing land use layout and promoting rural revitalization. This study takes the human-land spatial systems coupling theory as the core framework and constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural sustainable development covering five dimensions: economy, society, resources, ecology, and technology. Based on provincial panel data in China from 2001 to 2024, the entropy method is employed to measure agricultural sustainable development, while Dagum’s Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and convergence models are applied to analyze its spatial–temporal evolution. Furthermore, the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method is introduced to identify multi-factor configurational driving pathways. The results indicate that the overall level of agricultural sustainable development in China shows a steady upward trend, exhibiting a regional gradient pattern characterized by “central region leading, eastern region steadily advancing, and western region gradually catching up”. The overall disparity presents a weak convergence trend, with inter-regional differences as the primary source, although their contribution is gradually declining. The development structure has evolved from regional fragmentation to a more complex spatial interaction pattern. The overall distribution shifts rightward with evident stage-based differentiation, accompanied by significant positive spatial dependence, with “high–high” and “low–low” clustering coexisting over the long term. Convergence analysis shows that σ-convergence exists at the national level. After accounting for spatial effects, significant absolute β-convergence is observed in the eastern and western regions, while the central region does not exhibit significant convergence. Conditional β-convergence further confirms the existence of regional convergence trends, although the convergence speeds vary. The fsQCA results indicate that agricultural sustainable development is not driven by a single factor but by multiple configurational pathways formed through the interaction of various conditions. These findings provide empirical evidence for optimizing agricultural spatial layout, strengthening land factor support, and promoting regionally coordinated agricultural sustainable development.