Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Determinants of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province, China

This study investigates the changes in carbon emissions resulting from land use in Jiangsu Province, China, over the past two decades. It constructs a land use transition matrix to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics, applies the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate land use carbon emissions, and employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression to investigate the determinants of land use carbon emissions. The findings reveal the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, construction land in Jiangsu Province, China, exhibited a significant increasing trend, primarily due to the conversion of cultivated land. Meanwhile, the area of other land use types decreased. (2) The primary sources of carbon emissions are construction land and cultivated land. Between 2000 and 2020, the total carbon emissions from land use in Jiangsu Province, China, showed a clear upward trend. However, between 2015 and 2020, these emissions gradually stabilized. (3) Economic development level and consumption level have significant positive effects on land use carbon emissions, while the technological level has a significant negative effect.