Multi-Scale Assessment of Multifunctional Supply–Demand Shortage Risks in Cultivated Land Within the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province

To clarify the multifunctional supply–demand relationship of cultivated land in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province, and to provide decision-making support for strengthening cultivated land protection and promoting sustainable agricultural and rural utilisation within this basin, this study employs the entropy value method, hierarchical demand theory, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. Analyses were conducted at three scales—functional zoning, municipal, and county—to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of supply and demand for the productive, ecological, social, and landscape functions of cultivated land from 2013 to 2023. This comprehensive assessment evaluates the supply and demand levels of multifunctional cultivated land within the study area and analyses the risks associated with shortages in multifunctional supply and demand. Results indicate: A significant spatial negative correlation exists between the supply and demand levels of multifunctional agricultural land in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province. The supply level was in the range of [0.08–0.65], exhibiting an overall slight decreasing trend and a spatial pattern of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. The demand level was in the range of [0.11–0.82], showing an overall increasing trend and a spatial pattern of higher values at both ends and lower values in the middle. Between 2013 and 2023, the severity of multifunctional supply–demand scarcity risk gradually improved, exhibiting an overall spatial distribution pattern characterised by scarcity in core and expansion zones, surplus in coordination zones. Risk severity values ranged from −0.08 to 0.02 in core zones, 0.03 to 0.11 in expansion zones, and 0.08 to 0.16 in coordination zones. To optimise the multifunctional supply–demand structure of cultivated land in Henan’s Yellow River Basin, high-risk areas require targeted management and optimisation to mitigate supply–demand risks. The balance between multifunctional supply and demand for cultivated land should be achieved through tailored approaches, such as standardising cross-regional allocation of multifunctional cultivated land resources and establishing a multi-scale, integrated compensation mechanism for protecting cultivated land functions.