Does Geopolitical Risk Affect Agricultural Exports? Chinese Evidence from the Perspective of Agricultural Land

Geopolitical conflicts and power games among major nations present substantial challenges to cross-border trade and global economic development; however, the existing literature has paid limited attention to the role of geopolitical risk in agricultural exports, especially the underlying macroimpact mechanisms from the perspective of agricultural land. This paper utilizes China’s agricultural export data spanning 1995–2020 to empirically investigate the influence of geopolitical risk on China’s agricultural exports and unveil its specific internal mechanisms. The findings reveal that China’s agricultural exports are negatively affected when its trading partners are exposed to geopolitical risk. Notably, trading partners’ agricultural land is instrumental in mitigating the adverse effects of geopolitical risk on China’s agricultural exports. Moreover, a heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical risk on China’s agricultural exports is more significant in non-Belt and Road countries than in Belt and Road countries. Given China’s status as one of the world’s major agricultural exporting nations, the results of this study hold significant importance in proactively addressing and alleviating the impact of geopolitical risks on both Chinese and global agricultural exports.