Quantitative Analysis of Seasonality and the Impact of COVID-19 on Tourists’ Use of Urban Green Space in Okinawa: An ARIMA Modeling Approach Using Web Review Data
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Objects
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Modeling the ARIMA
3. Results
3.1. Results of Crawling the Research Data
3.2. Results of Collating the Time-Series Dataset
3.3. Results of the Time-Series Modeling
3.3.1. An ARIMA Model for Ocean-Area UGS
- (a)
- Modeling
- (b) Testing the Model
3.3.2. ARIMA Model for Non-Ocean-Area UGS
3.3.3. Magnitude of Change in Proportional Relationships
4. Discussion
4.1. Ocean-Area UGS
4.1.1. Exploiting Seasonality
4.1.2. Impact of the Outbreak
4.2. Non-Ocean-Area UGS
4.2.1. Exploiting Seasonality
4.2.2. Impact of the Outbreak
4.3. Comparative Analysis
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Site | City | Site | City |
---|---|---|---|
Tomori Imugya Beach | Miyakojima | Ginowan Tropical Beach | Ginowan |
Maehama Beach with Naha | Miyakojima | Ginowan Marina | Ginowan |
Shinjo Coast | Miyakojima | Bibi Beach Itoman | Itoman |
Shimodachi Island | Miyakojima | Odohama Beach | Itoman |
Toriike Pond | Miyakojima | Kadeshi River | Itoman |
Irabu-jima Island | Miyakojima | Nashiro Beach | Itoman |
Ikema-jima Island | Miyakojima | Kawahira Bay | Ishigaki |
Sawada no hama Beach | Miyakojima | Yonehara Beach | Ishigaki |
Painagama Beach | Miyakojima | Sukuji Beach | Ishigaki |
Kurimajima Island | Miyakojima | Shiraho Beach | Ishigaki |
Watanabisama | Miyakojima | Sunset Beach | Ishigaki |
Yae Ganse | Miyakojima | Maezato Beach | Ishigaki |
Nakanoshima Beach | Miyakojima | Kabira Ishizaki Manta Scramble | Ishigaki |
Shigira Beach | Miyakojima | Akashi Beach | Ishigaki |
Ogami Island | Miyakojima | Maesato Beach | Ishigaki |
Nagamahama Beach Coast | Miyakojima | Ishigaki-jima Blue Cave | Ishigaki |
Sand Hill Beach | Miyakojima | Urasoko Bay | Ishigaki |
Funakusu Beach | Miyakojima | Tomizaki Beach | Ishigaki |
Hauai Waiwai Beach | Miyakojima | Osaki Hanagoi Reef | Ishigaki |
Boraga Beach | Miyakojima | Osaki Tutle Reef | Ishigaki |
Turiba Sunset Beach | Miyakojima | Iharama Okinone | Ishigaki |
Hora Gyoko no Hama Beach | Miyakojima | Kumoji River | Naha |
Kagimmi-hama Beach | Miyakojima | Ryutan | Naha |
Maja Beach | Miyakojima | Naminoue Umisora Park | Naha |
Opiiwa | Miyakojima | Miigusu Port | Naha |
Yamatobu Oiwa | Miyakojima | Soongahinja Spring | Naha |
Muigah Cliff | Miyakojima | Naminoue Beach | Naha |
Tako Park | Miyakojima | Miigusuku Furusato Coast | Naha |
Ikizu Beach | Miyakojima | Kudakajima Island | Nanjo |
Satans Palace | Miyakojima | Ojima Island | Nanjo |
Arasshisuhida Beach | Miyakojima | Miibaru Beach | Nanjo |
Urasoko Beach | Miyakojima | Ojima Coast | Nanjo |
Miyaguni Nnatohama Beach | Miyakojima | Komaka Island | Nanjo |
Antoni Gaudi | Miyakojima | Azama Sunsun Beach | Nanjo |
Muikaga | Miyakojima | Mibaru Beach | Nanjo |
Nakanoshima Water Channel | Miyakojima | Ishiki Beach | Nanjo |
Kumaza Beach | Miyakojima | Habyan, Cape Kaberu | Nanjo |
Nagakita Beach | Miyakojima | Ukabijima Island | Nanjo |
Cross Hole | Miyakojima | Pizza Beach | Nanjo |
Miyako Sunset Beach | Miyakojima | Busena Beach | Nago |
Hamahiga Island | Uruma | 21st Century Forest | Nago |
Ikei Beach | Uruma | Yagaji Island | Nago |
Odomari Beach | Uruma | Kise Beach | Nago |
Tsukenjima Island | Uruma | Kanucha Beach | Nago |
Tonnaha Beach | Uruma | Nago citizen Beach | Nago |
Muruku Hama Beach | Uruma | Sea Glass Beach | Nago |
Hamahiga Beach | Uruma | Koki Beach | Nago |
MIyagijima Island | Uruma | Yagaji Beach | Nago |
Henza Island | Uruma | Teniya Beach | Nago |
Tsukenjima Beach | Uruma | Setagashima | Tamagusuku |
Tomai-hama Beach | Uruma | Toyosaki Kaihin Koen | Tamagusuku |
Ukibaru-jima Island | Uruma | Chura Sun Beach | Tamagusuku |
Itsukuma Beach | Uruma | Hija River | Okinawa City |
Kaneku Beach | Uruma |
Site | City | Site | City |
---|---|---|---|
Miyakojima Marine Park | Miyakojima | Ishigaki Island Science Garden | Ishigaki |
Imugya Marine Garden | Miyakojima | Hirakubo Sagaribana Gunraku | Ishigaki |
Shimajiri Mangrove Forests | Miyakojima | Maezato Dam | Ishigaki |
Hirara Tropical Botanical Garden | Miyakojima | Oura Dam | Ishigaki |
Hika Road Park | Miyakojima | Kanmuriwashi Observatory | Ishigaki |
Turiba Seaside Park | Miyakojima | Urasoe Park | Urasoe |
Nishikaigan Park | Miyakojima | Urasoe Sports Park | Urasoe |
Kamamamine Park | Miyakojima | Miyagi Park | Urasoe |
Shiratori Misaki Park | Miyakojima | Ohira Bus Stop Park | Urasoe |
Nakahara Limestone Cave | Miyakojima | Fukushuen | Naha |
Stone Garden | Miyakojima | Shikinaen | Naha |
Tropical Fruits Park | Miyakojima | Onoyama Park | Naha |
Takenakayama Tembo Park | Miyakojima | Shurikinjocho Oakagi Tree | Naha |
Fukuzato Underground Dam | Miyakojima | Manko Park | Naha |
Minafuku Underground Dam Park | Miyakojima | Yogi Park | Naha |
Painagama Umizora Sukoyaka Park | Miyakojima | Sueyoshi Park | Naha |
Ogamijima Island Multipurpose Park | Miyakojima | Wakasa Seaside Park | Naha |
Shiratori Hole | Miyakojima | Kinjo Dam | Naha |
Panata | Miyakojima | Matsuyama Park | Naha |
Sunken Ship Irabu | Miyakojima | Midorigaoka Park | Naha |
Bios Valley | Uruma | Kibogaoka Park | Naha |
Cave Okinawa | Uruma | Asatogawa Shinsui Park | Naha |
Zukeran Poultry Farm Minimini Zoo | Uruma | Uenomo Park | Naha |
Jyane Caves | Uruma | Gajanbira Park | Naha |
Sea Side Garden Hamahiga | Uruma | Makishi Park | Naha |
Miten Uza | Uruma | Asahigaoka Park | Naha |
Kurashiki Dam | Uruma | Shintoshin Park | Naha |
Uruma Shiminnomori Park | Uruma | Okinawa Cellular Park Naha | Naha |
Yacho no Mori Nature Park | Uruma | Kuganimui Park | Naha |
Iha Park | Uruma | Matsuo Park | Naha |
Heshikiya Takino | Uruma | Uenoya North Park | Naha |
Hamagyoko Ryokuchi Park | Uruma | Sakiyama Park | Naha |
Hanaridaki | Uruma | Nami no Ue Chocho House | Naha |
Ginowa Seaside Park | Ginowan | Ai no Shisa Park | Naha |
Kakazu Upland Park | Ginowan | Gangala Valley | Nanjo |
Morikawa Park | Ginowan | Cape Chinen Park | Nanjo |
Mashiki Pocket Park | Ginowan | Hanayakamura | Nanjo |
Heiwa Sozo no Mori Park | Itoman | Gusuku Road Park | Nanjo |
Okinawa Maha Bodhi Garden | Itoman | Chichinga | Nanjo |
Ishigaki Island Stalactite Cave | Ishigaki | Busena Marine Park | Nago |
Ishigakijima Banner Park | Ishigaki | NEO PARK OKINAWA | Nago |
Kawahira Park | Ishigaki | Forest Yanbaru Subtropical | Nago |
Ibaruma Sabichi Cave | Ishigaki | Nago Castle Historical Park | Nago |
Nosoko Mape | Ishigaki | Todoroki Falls | Nago |
Yaeyama Shyonyudo Doshokubutsuen Park | Ishigaki | 21st Century Forest Park | Nago |
Nosoko Forest Road | Ishigaki | Mt. Tanoudake | Nago |
Shinei Park | Ishigaki | Fukugawa Falls | Nago |
Misaki Park | Ishigaki | Haneji Dam | Nago |
Maezato Park | Ishigaki | Shikuwasa Hana & Green Village | Nago |
Funakura Park | Ishigaki | Kouki Park | Nago |
Sokobaru Dam | Ishigaki | Kaigungo Park | Tamagusuku |
Mr. Isigaki Garden | Ishigaki | Manko Waterbird & Wetland Center | Tamagusuku |
Ishigaki Dam | Ishigaki | Dmm Kariyushi Aquarium | Tamagusuku |
Arakawa Falls | Ishigaki | Southeast Botanical Gardens | Okinawa City |
Nagura Dam | Ishigaki | Okinawa Zoo & Museum | Okinawa City |
Kids Land Fantasy World | Ishigaki | Okinawa Comprehensive Athletic Park | Okinawa City |
Manta Park | Ishigaki | Yaeshima Park | Okinawa City |
Yashima Ryokuchi Park | Ishigaki | Akemichi Park | Okinawa City |
Yashima Jinko Island | Ishigaki |
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Years | Volume of Data | Number of Tourists |
---|---|---|
2009 | 87 | 5,690,000 |
2010 | 221 | 5,717,900 |
2011 | 284 | 5,528,000 |
2012 | 575 | 5,924,700 |
2013 | 995 | 6,583,000 |
2014 | 2034 | 7,169,900 |
2015 | 3187 | 7,936,300 |
2016 | 3442 | 8,769,200 |
2017 | 3398 | 9,579,900 |
2018 | 2942 | 10,004,300 |
2019 | 2310 | 10,163,900 |
Time (Month and Year) | Ocean-Area UGS | Non-Ocean-Area UGS |
---|---|---|
January 2014 | 68 | 57 |
February 2014 | 56 | 58 |
March 2014 | 111 | 57 |
April 2014 | 108 | 69 |
May 2014 | 104 | 54 |
June 2014 | 105 | 44 |
July 2014 | 170 | 56 |
August 2014 | 175 | 50 |
September 2014 | 170 | 58 |
October 2014 | 100 | 52 |
November 2014 | 88 | 68 |
December 2014 | 84 | 72 |
January 2015 | 104 | 95 |
February 2015 | 96 | 93 |
March 2015 | 105 | 83 |
April 2015 | 161 | 98 |
May 2015 | 181 | 103 |
June 2015 | 205 | 91 |
July 2015 | 265 | 97 |
August 2015 | 236 | 86 |
September 2015 | 214 | 88 |
October 2015 | 213 | 110 |
November 2015 | 122 | 78 |
December 2015 | 135 | 128 |
January 2016 | 130 | 133 |
February 2016 | 129 | 107 |
March 2016 | 156 | 106 |
April 2016 | 253 | 116 |
May 2016 | 225 | 110 |
June 2016 | 195 | 84 |
July 2016 | 286 | 112 |
August 2016 | 236 | 94 |
September 2016 | 201 | 74 |
October 2016 | 192 | 85 |
November 2016 | 115 | 73 |
December 2016 | 124 | 106 |
January 2017 | 160 | 126 |
February 2017 | 104 | 86 |
March 2017 | 136 | 124 |
April 2017 | 261 | 147 |
May 2017 | 214 | 92 |
June 2017 | 205 | 84 |
July 2017 | 284 | 89 |
August 2017 | 237 | 81 |
September 2017 | 166 | 78 |
October 2017 | 267 | 99 |
November 2017 | 97 | 71 |
December 2017 | 104 | 86 |
January 2018 | 112 | 119 |
February 2018 | 104 | 108 |
March 2018 | 123 | 110 |
April 2018 | 160 | 120 |
May 2018 | 173 | 94 |
June 2018 | 156 | 67 |
July 2018 | 182 | 77 |
August 2018 | 234 | 109 |
September 2018 | 160 | 92 |
October 2018 | 148 | 79 |
November 2018 | 132 | 86 |
December 2018 | 103 | 94 |
January 2019 | 123 | 106 |
February 2019 | 97 | 80 |
March 2019 | 121 | 86 |
April 2019 | 123 | 83 |
May 2019 | 141 | 95 |
June 2019 | 150 | 61 |
July 2019 | 164 | 62 |
August 2019 | 125 | 57 |
September 2019 | 97 | 62 |
October 2019 | 134 | 68 |
November 2019 | 88 | 52 |
December 2019 | 67 | 68 |
Time (Month and Year) | Predictive Value (Ocean-Area UGS) |
---|---|
January 2020 | 78.08404 |
February 2020 | 57.38566 |
March 2020 | 83.26087 |
April 2020 | 129.76301 |
May 2020 | 128.58841 |
June 2020 | 124.91645 |
July 2020 | 171.0254 |
August 2020 | 154.29757 |
September 2020 | 111.09483 |
October 2020 | 128.38786 |
November 2020 | 63.48787 |
December 2020 | 54.03563 |
January 2021 | 68.76185 |
February 2021 | 48.06347 |
March 2021 | 73.93868 |
April 2021 | 120.44082 |
May 2021 | 119.26622 |
June 2021 | 115.59426 |
July 2021 | 161.70321 |
August 2021 | 144.97538 |
September 2021 | 101.77264 |
October 2021 | 119.06566 |
November 2021 | 54.16567 |
December 2021 | 44.71344 |
Time (Month and Year) | Predictive Value (Non-Ocean-Area UGS) |
---|---|
January 2020 | 69.36227 |
February 2020 | 62.42041 |
March 2020 | 60.41193 |
April 2020 | 57.79053 |
May 2020 | 66.66478 |
June 2020 | 51.83195 |
July 2020 | 53.09759 |
August 2020 | 53.94552 |
September 2020 | 54.32503 |
October 2020 | 53.93627 |
November 2020 | 50.57369 |
December 2020 | 57.13684 |
January 2021 | 55.19529 |
February 2021 | 50.41964 |
March 2021 | 50.97723 |
April 2021 | 49.22835 |
May 2021 | 54.82956 |
June 2021 | 49.18297 |
July 2021 | 49.10758 |
August 2021 | 45.08598 |
September 2021 | 47.14309 |
October 2021 | 49.37000 |
November 2021 | 45.56541 |
December 2021 | 48.69557 |
Time (Month and Year) | Actual Value (Ocean-Area UGS) | Actual Value (Non-Ocean-Area UGS) |
---|---|---|
January 2020 | 62 | 65 |
February 2020 | 66 | 48 |
March 2020 | 72 | 46 |
April 2020 | 12 | 13 |
May 2020 | 1 | 4 |
June 2020 | 9 | 9 |
July 2020 | 40 | 27 |
August 2020 | 30 | 25 |
September 2020 | 12 | 8 |
October 2020 | 31 | 9 |
November 2020 | 44 | 28 |
December 2020 | 32 | 24 |
January 2021 | 7 | 25 |
February 2021 | 4 | 6 |
March 2021 | 8 | 11 |
April 2021 | 12 | 24 |
May 2021 | 24 | 15 |
June 2021 | 8 | 14 |
July 2021 | 14 | 19 |
August 2021 | 19 | 32 |
September 2021 | 13 | 20 |
October 2021 | 8 | 11 |
November 2021 | 11 | 22 |
December 2021 | 26 | 28 |
Time (Month and Year) | Proportion (Ocean-Area UGS) | Proportion (Non-Ocean-Area UGS) |
---|---|---|
January 2020 | 79.40% | 93.71% |
February 2020 | 115.01% | 76.90% |
March 2020 | 86.48% | 76.14% |
April 2020 | 9.25% | 22.50% |
May 2020 | 0.78% | 6.00% |
June 2020 | 7.20% | 17.36% |
July 2020 | 23.39% | 50.85% |
August 2020 | 19.44% | 46.34% |
September 2020 | 10.80% | 14.73% |
October 2020 | 24.15% | 16.69% |
November 2020 | 69.30% | 55.36% |
December 2020 | 59.22% | 42.00% |
January 2021 | 10.18% | 45.29% |
February 2021 | 8.32% | 11.90% |
March 2021 | 10.82% | 21.58% |
April 2021 | 9.96% | 48.75% |
May 2021 | 20.12% | 27.36% |
June 2021 | 6.92% | 28.47% |
July 2021 | 8.66% | 38.69% |
August 2021 | 13.11% | 70.98% |
September 2021 | 12.77% | 42.42% |
October 2021 | 6.72% | 22.28% |
November 2021 | 20.31% | 48.28% |
December 2021 | 58.15% | 57.50% |
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Yang, R.; Liu, K.; Su, C.; Takeda, S.; Zhang, J.; Liu, S. Quantitative Analysis of Seasonality and the Impact of COVID-19 on Tourists’ Use of Urban Green Space in Okinawa: An ARIMA Modeling Approach Using Web Review Data. Land 2023, 12, 1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12051075
Yang R, Liu K, Su C, Takeda S, Zhang J, Liu S. Quantitative Analysis of Seasonality and the Impact of COVID-19 on Tourists’ Use of Urban Green Space in Okinawa: An ARIMA Modeling Approach Using Web Review Data. Land. 2023; 12(5):1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12051075
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Ruochen, Kun Liu, Chang Su, Shiro Takeda, Junhua Zhang, and Shuhao Liu. 2023. "Quantitative Analysis of Seasonality and the Impact of COVID-19 on Tourists’ Use of Urban Green Space in Okinawa: An ARIMA Modeling Approach Using Web Review Data" Land 12, no. 5: 1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12051075
APA StyleYang, R., Liu, K., Su, C., Takeda, S., Zhang, J., & Liu, S. (2023). Quantitative Analysis of Seasonality and the Impact of COVID-19 on Tourists’ Use of Urban Green Space in Okinawa: An ARIMA Modeling Approach Using Web Review Data. Land, 12(5), 1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12051075