Unraveling the Causal Mechanisms for Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land: An Analysis Framework Applied in Liyang, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. An Analysis Framework
2.3. Classifying and Extracting Non-Grain Production Categories
2.4. Analyzing Spatial Patterns of Four Categories
2.4.1. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
2.4.2. Spatial Hotspot Analysis
2.4.3. Scatterplot Matrix
2.5. Revealing the Causal Mechanisms of Four Categories
2.5.1. Factors Selection
2.5.2. Multiple linear regression model
2.6. Data Sources and Processing
3. Result Analysis
3.1. Spatial Patter Features of Four Non-Grain Production Categories in Liyang
3.1.1. Non-Grain Production Areas and Rates
3.1.2. Spatial Pattern Features of Four Categories
3.2. Causal Mechanisms of Four Non-Grain Production Categories
4. Discussion
4.1. Spatial Patterns of Non-Grain Production Categories
4.2. Reasons for the Significant Causal Mechanisms for Four Categories
4.3. Governance Implementation
4.4. Limitations and Future Prospects
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- Non-grain production activities were found to be widespread in Liyang, the comprehensive non-grain rate was 48.09%. The non-grain rates of IMR, SER, ENR, and IR were 11.81%, 17.76%, 15.07%, and 3.45%, respectively. SER and ENR were more widely distributed.
- (2)
- A significant neighborhood effect was identified among the four categories. While they exhibited different levels and obvious spatial agglomeration, there were positive relationships among IMR, SER, and ENR in pairs.
- (3)
- All four non-grain production categories were inclined to occur in places where the proportion of irrigated farmland was lower. In addition, IMR was more likely to occur around urban areas, which were characterized by more labor force loss, higher-density transportation infrastructures, and larger-scale industry and tourism. Furthermore, SER was mainly located in the south, central, and north of Liyang, mainly in areas closer to mountains and with an aging workforce and larger-scale commerce and tourism. ENR was mainly located in the east and west of Liyang, mainly in areas closer to mountains, with younger labor forces and smaller-scale industries. IR was mainly distributed in the west and north of Liyang, which were characterized by less experienced village leaders, less transportation infrastructure, smaller-scale commerce, and larger-scale tourism.
- (4)
- To ensure grain security, the government should improve farmland irrigation facilities, as well as increase the proportion of irrigated farmland and grain subsidies for mountainous farmland. A future policy orientation could be to increase the scale of land transfer and take grain production as a performance indicator for the promotion of village chiefs. In terms of industry imports, local governments should encourage industries that use grain as raw material to go into the countryside, effectively controlling the random expansion of rural tourism. The basis of the management of non-grain production on cultivated land lies in adhering to regulations on the protection of prime farmland and clarifying the penalties for occupying permanent prime farmland.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Description |
---|---|
Geophysical variables | |
Cultivated land topography (G1) | 1 = plain, 2 = hill, 3 = mountain |
Proportion of irrigated farmland (G2) | Irrigated farmland area/total cultivated land area (%) |
Distance to nearest town (G3) | 1 = town location, 2 = close to town, 3 = one village away from town, 4 = two or more villages away from town |
Demographicvariables | |
Proportion over age 60 (D1) | Population over age 60/total number (%) |
Proportion leaving town for more than 6 months (D2) | Amount of labor force leaving the township for more than 6 months/total labor force (%) |
Proportion with high school education or above (D3) | Amount of labor force with high school education or above/total labor force (%) |
Age of the village chief (D4) | 1 = under 30, 2 = 31–40, 3 = 41–50, 4 = over 51 |
Economic variables | |
Road traffic density in villages (E1) | Road area/rural area (%) |
Industrial scale (E2) | Area of industrial and storage land in a village (hm2) |
Commercial scale (E3) | Area of commercial land in a village (hm2) |
Tourism scale (E4) | Number of homesteads in three places and above/total number of households in a village (%) |
Policy variables | |
Proportion of completed cultivated land transfer (P1) | Area of completed transfer/total cultivated land area (%) |
Proportion of prime farmland (P2). | Area of prime farmland/total cultivated land area (%) |
Variable | Min | Max | AVG | STD |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land topography (G1) | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.53 |
Proportion of irrigated farmland (G2) | 33.5 | 99.27 | 87.96 | 11.88 |
Distance to nearest town (G3) | 1 | 3 | 1.85 | 0.79 |
Proportion over age 60 (D1) | 16.12 | 46.77 | 26.27 | 3.97 |
Proportion leaving town for more than 6 months (D2) | 0 | 55.27 | 11.35 | 8.87 |
Proportion with high school education or above (D3) | 10.76 | 29.33 | 19.25 | 3.64 |
Age of the village chief (D4) | 1 | 4 | 3.49 | 0.68 |
Road traffic density in villages (E1) | 1.33 | 17.91 | 5.03 | 2.69 |
Industrial scale (E2) | 0 | 53.79 | 4.44 | 7.42 |
Commercial scale (E3) | 0 | 23.87 | 2.42 | 4.52 |
Tourism scale (E4) | 0 | 33.8 | 1.69 | 4.55 |
Proportion of completed cultivated land transfer (P1) | 0 | 27.03 | 1.89 | 2.58 |
Proportion of prime farmland (P2) | 2.88 | 99.14 | 87 | 12 |
IMR | SER | ENR | IR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Liyang_areas (ha) | 6915.17 | 10,399.1 | 8824.01 | 2020.09 |
Liyang_rates (%) | 11.81 | 17.76 | 15.07 | 3.45 |
Villages_range (%) | 1.35–61.06 | 0.48–75.96 | 0.19–96.69 | 0.02–30.88 |
IMR | SER | ENR | IR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land topography (G1) | −0.036 | 0.117 * | 0.146 * | 0.055 |
Proportion of irrigated farmland (G2) | −0.279 *** | −0.133 * | −0.55 *** | −0.547 *** |
Distance to the nearest town (G3) | 0.036 | −0.019 | −0.098 | 0.06 |
Proportion over age 60 (D1) | 0.055 | 0.127* | −0.153 * | −0.002 |
Proportion leaving town for more than 6 months (D2) | 0.153 * | 0.086 | 0.086 | −0.046 |
Proportion of high school education or above (D3) | −0.104 | −0.067 | 0.051 | −0.017 |
Age of village chief (D4) | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.081 | −0.192 * |
Road traffic density in villages (E1) | 0.269 *** | −0.048 | 0.084 | −0.197 ** |
Industrial scale (E2) | 0.154* | −0.083 | −0.23 ** | −0.002 |
Commercial scale (E3) | 0.119 | 0.209 * | −0.143 | −0.172 * |
Tourism scale (E4) | 0.271 ** | 0.427 ** | −0.024 | 0.139 * |
Proportion of completed cultivated land transfer (P1) | 0.008 | 0.003 | −0.058 | −0.111 |
Proportion of prime farmland (P2) | −0.076 | −0.228 ** | 0.044 | −0.082 |
a | 0.222 | / | 0.757 | 0.301 |
n | 165 | 165 | 165 | 165 |
F | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
R2 | 0.540 | 0.397 | 0.274 | 0.300 |
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Cheng, X.; Tao, Y.; Huang, C.; Yi, J.; Yi, D.; Wang, F.; Tao, Q.; Xi, H.; Ou, W. Unraveling the Causal Mechanisms for Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land: An Analysis Framework Applied in Liyang, China. Land 2022, 11, 1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11111888
Cheng X, Tao Y, Huang C, Yi J, Yi D, Wang F, Tao Q, Xi H, Ou W. Unraveling the Causal Mechanisms for Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land: An Analysis Framework Applied in Liyang, China. Land. 2022; 11(11):1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11111888
Chicago/Turabian StyleCheng, Xianbo, Yu Tao, Conghong Huang, Jialin Yi, Dan Yi, Fei Wang, Qin Tao, Henghui Xi, and Weixin Ou. 2022. "Unraveling the Causal Mechanisms for Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land: An Analysis Framework Applied in Liyang, China" Land 11, no. 11: 1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11111888