Water 2017, 9(2), 149; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020149
Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)
Department of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of San Antonio, Campus de los Jerónimos s/n, 30107 Murcia, Spain
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Academic Editors: Karim Abbaspour, Raghavan Srinivasan, Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Monireh Faramarzi and Lei Chen
Received: 9 January 2017 / Revised: 9 February 2017 / Accepted: 17 February 2017 / Published: 22 February 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Soil and Water Management: Selected Papers from 2016 International SWAT Conference)
Abstract
The Segura River Basin is one of the most water-stressed basins in Mediterranean Europe. If we add to the actual situation that most climate change projections forecast important decreases in water resource availability in the Mediterranean region, the situation will become totally unsustainable. This study assessed the impact of climate change in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the medium term (2041–2070) and the long term (2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction was performed using the distribution mapping approach. The fuzzy TOPSIS technique was applied to rank a set of nine GCM–RCM combinations, choosing the climate models with a higher relative closeness. The study results show that the SWAT performed satisfactorily for both calibration (NSE = 0.80) and validation (NSE = 0.77) periods. Comparing the long-term and baseline (1971–2000) periods, precipitation showed a negative trend between 6% and 32%, whereas projected annual mean temperatures demonstrated an estimated increase of 1.5–3.3 °C. Water resources were estimated to experience a decrease of 2%–54%. These findings provide local water management authorities with very useful information in the face of climate change. View Full-TextKeywords:
water resources; SWAT model; climate change; Segura Basin; fuzzy TOPSIS
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Senent-Aparicio, J.; Pérez-Sánchez, J.; Carrillo-García, J.; Soto, J. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain). Water 2017, 9, 149.
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