Simulating the Hydrological Processes under Multiple Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Scenarios in the Mahanadi Reservoir Complex, Chhattisgarh, India
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area and Data Used
2.2. Model Setup
2.3. Criteria for Model Performance Assessments
2.4. Overall Methodology
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Model Performance
3.2. Influence of LULC Change and Climate Variability on Hydrology under the Real Scenario
3.3. Influence of LULC Change and Climate Variability on Hydrology under the Hypothetical Scenario
3.4. Isolated Influence of LULC on Streamflow, ET
3.5. Isolated Influence of Climate Variability on Streamflow, ET
3.6. The Combined Influence of LULC and Climate Variability on Streamflow, ET
3.7. Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Change Analysis
3.8. Variability and Trend of Precipitation and Temperature Variables
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Meenu et al. [57] | Tunga-Bhadra River Basin, India | This research assesses the effects of potential climate change scenarios on the hydrological conditions within the Tunga-Bhadra River’s upstream catchment area, located before the Tungabhadra dam. |
Chen et al. [58] | Lower Virgin River (LVR) Watershed, Nevada, USA | This study employs a cellular model to investigate how alterations in climate and land cover affect the hydrology of the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed, situated upstream of Lake Mead in Nevada, USA. |
Belayand Mengistu [59] | Muga watershed, Ethiopia | This study focused on evaluating soil erosion within the Muga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abay), considering both past and projected future climate conditions and changes in land use and land cover (LULC). |
Dwarakish and Ganasri [60] | - | To assess the effects of alterations in land use on hydrology and to appraise diverse methods of scenario modeling. |
Eini et al. [61] | Dez River Basin, Iran | The impact of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) due to climate change on streamflow and sediment yield has been assessed in the Dez River Basin, located in the southwestern region of Iran. |
Li et al. [62] | Xin’anjiang Reservoir Basin (XRB), China | This study focuses on analyzing how alterations in both climate patterns and land use/land cover affect hydrological processes and sediment yield within the Xin’anjiang Reservoir Basin (XRB), located in southeastern China. |
Preetha and Hasan [63] | River catchments, Chennai, India | In this research, a combined simulation model of SWAT-FEM was utilized to assess how changes in land use, land cover, and climate scenarios could affect water resources within river catchments situated in Chennai, India. |
Setyorini et al. [64] | Upper Brantas River Basin, Indonesia | In this research, the effects of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and variations in climate on hydrological processes were evaluated and modeled. By employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate these processes within the Upper Brantas River Basin, situated in Indonesia. |
Pandey et al. [65] | Upper Narmada Basin, India | This study shows how to model hydrological reactions in the Upper Narmada Basin in India by taking into account the changing dynamics of the LULC and possible climate changes. |
Mensah et al. [66] | - | The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of the integrated modeling approach in analyzing hydrological processes and groundwater recharge, considering the influence of LULC and climate change. |
Wu et al. [67] | Heihe River Basin (HRB), China | This study assessed the effects of possible shifts in climate and land use on the hydrology of the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China by incorporating SWAT and a downscaling model. |
Data Type | Descriptions | Years/Periods | Sources |
---|---|---|---|
Digital elevation model (DEM) | Shutter Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) of (30 m resolution) | - | (https://www.opentopography.org/ accessed on 10 September 2022) |
Land use maps | (30 m resolution) | 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2014 | Landsat-8 images, USGS Earth Explorer |
Soil map | Raster resolution (1:50,000) | - | National Bureau of Soil Survey-Land Use Planning, Nagpur (NBSS-LUP) |
Weather data | Daily basis | 1985–2020 | Indian Meteorological Department, Pune, India |
Hydrological data | Monthly discharge at the reservoir site | 1985–2020 | Mahanadi Reservoir Project complex in Rudri division, Dhamtari, Chhattisgarh |
Climatic Condition | Scenario Used | Land Use | Duration (Rainfall, Tmax., Tmin.) |
---|---|---|---|
C1 | S1 | 1985 | 1985–1996 |
S2 | 1995 | 1985–1996 | |
S3 | 2005 | 1985–1996 | |
S4 | 2014 | 1985–1996 | |
C2 | S5 | 1985 | 1997–2008 |
S6 | 1995 | 1997–2008 | |
S7 | 2005 | 1997–2008 | |
S8 | 2014 | 1997–2008 | |
C3 | S9 | 1985 | 2009–2020 |
S10 | 1995 | 2009–2020 | |
S11 | 2005 | 2009–2020 | |
S12 | 2014 | 2009–2020 |
Parameters | Methods | Descriptions | Parameter Range | Fitted Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial | Final | ||||
CN2 | Relative | Curve number | −0.30 | 0.30 | 0.36 |
ALPHA_BF | Replace | Base flow alpha factor | 0 | 1 | 0.56 |
GW_DELAY | Replace | Groundwater delay | 40 | 480 | 242.12 |
GWQMN | Absolute | Shallow aquifer threshold depth of water | 0 | 4500 | 1.01 |
GW_REVAP | Replace | Groundwater “Revap” coefficient | 0.03 | 0.3 | 0.15 |
ESCO | Replace | Evaporation soil compensation factor | 0.02 | 1 | 0.90 |
CH_N2 | Replace | Manning’s roughness | 0 | 0.3 | −0.08 |
CH_K2 | Replace | Effective hydraulic conductivity | 5 | 130 | 122.15 |
ALPHA_BNK | Replace | Base flow alpha factor for bank storage | 0 | 1 | 0.009 |
SOL_AWC | Relative | Available water capacity | −0.25 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
SOL_K | Relative | Soil hydraulic conductivity | −0.8 | 0.8 | −0.05 |
SOL_BD | Relative | The density of soil mass | −0.5 | 0.7 | 0.80 |
HRU_SLP | Relative | Slope steepness | 0 | 0.2 | 0.06 |
OV_N | Relative | Overland Manning’s roughness | 0.05 | 35 | −0.15 |
SLSUBBSN | Relative | Slope length | 0 | 0.2 | 0.02 |
Statistical Indices | LULC Scenarios | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Criteria for Satisfactory | 1985 | 1995 | 2005 | 2014 | ||
p-factor | Calibration | >0.7 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
Validation | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 | ||
r-factor | Calibration | <1.5 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.07 |
Validation | 1.20 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.93 | ||
R2 | Calibration | >0.5 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.85 |
Validation | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.81 | ||
NSE | Calibration | >0.5 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.83 |
Validation | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.75 | ||
RSR | Calibration | ≤0.7 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.41 |
Validation | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.50 | ||
PBIAS | Calibration | <±25 | 1.90 | 2.90 | 8.40 | 4.30 |
Validation | 6.10 | 2.90 | 1.20 | 3.80 |
LULC Classes | Area 1985 (%) | Area 1995 (%) | RoC (%) | Area 1995 (%) | Area 2005 (%) | RoC (%) | Area 2005 (%) | Area 2014 (%) | RoC (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FRSD | 45.36 | 43.74 | −3.57 | 43.74 | 43.20 | −1.23 | 43.20 | 42.07 | −2.61 |
AGRR | 38.95 | 39.83 | 2.26 | 39.83 | 40.44 | 1.53 | 40.44 | 42.73 | 5.66 |
URBN | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 10.34 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 43.75 |
FRST | 3.72 | 4.11 | 10.48 | 4.11 | 4.14 | 0.72 | 4.14 | 5.01 | 21.01 |
RNGB | 2.92 | 3.28 | 12.32 | 3.28 | 3.16 | −3.65 | 3.16 | 1.80 | −43.03 |
BARR | 0.60 | 0.63 | 5.00 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 4.76 | 0.66 | 0.9 | 36.36 |
AGRL | 1.06 | 0.92 | −13.20 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 4.87 | 81.07 |
WATR | 3.07 | 3.08 | 2.28 | 3.08 | 3.10 | 0.64 | 3.10 | 3.67 | 18.38 |
FRSE | 4.07 | 4.07 | 0.00 | 4.07 | 4.07 | 0.00 | 4.07 | 6.74 | 65.60 |
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Verma, S.; Verma, M.K.; Prasad, A.D.; Mehta, D.; Azamathulla, H.M.; Muttil, N.; Rathnayake, U. Simulating the Hydrological Processes under Multiple Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Scenarios in the Mahanadi Reservoir Complex, Chhattisgarh, India. Water 2023, 15, 3068. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173068
Verma S, Verma MK, Prasad AD, Mehta D, Azamathulla HM, Muttil N, Rathnayake U. Simulating the Hydrological Processes under Multiple Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Scenarios in the Mahanadi Reservoir Complex, Chhattisgarh, India. Water. 2023; 15(17):3068. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173068
Chicago/Turabian StyleVerma, Shashikant, Mani Kant Verma, A. D. Prasad, Darshan Mehta, Hazi Md Azamathulla, Nitin Muttil, and Upaka Rathnayake. 2023. "Simulating the Hydrological Processes under Multiple Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Scenarios in the Mahanadi Reservoir Complex, Chhattisgarh, India" Water 15, no. 17: 3068. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173068