Extreme Runoff Estimation for Ungauged Watersheds Using a New Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Model MASVC
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Model MASVC
2.2. Probability Density Functions (PDF)
2.3. Curves IDT
2.4. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number Method (SCS-CN)
2.5. Case Study
3. Results
3.1. Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Results
3.2. PDFs
3.3. SCS-CN
3.4. Determination of Surface Runoff for All Subbasins
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
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Station | Latitude (°) | Longitude (°) | Elevation (msnm) | Years | Total Annual Precipitation (mm/year) | Pmax * (mm/year) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16022 | 19.625 | −101.281 | 2096 | 1980−2009 | 811.8 | 78 |
16247 | 19.675 | 101.392 | 2097 | 1980−2009 | 700.7 | 75.3 |
16055 | 19.652 | −101.151 | 2180 | 1980−2009 | 1092.25 | 97 |
16081 | 16.289 | −101.176 | 1913 | 1980−2009 | 772.21 | 80.1 |
Statistical/Station | 16055 | 16081 | 16022 | 16247 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | −0.0084 | −0.0035 | 0.080 | −0.078 |
Standard deviation | 1.0431 | 1.0843 | 1.3315 | 1.0895 |
Skewness coefficient | −0.1212 | 0.3246 | 0.5622 | −0.0939 |
Lag-one autocorrelation | 0.0239 | 0.0420 | 0.0461 | −0.0581 |
AIC | −2145 | −1995 | −4733 | −2652 |
Function/Station | 16055 | 16081 | 16022 | 16247 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Normal | 0.1977 | 0.1138 | 0.1932 | 0.1193 |
Log-Normal 3P | 0.1064 | 0.0592 | 0.0696 * | 0.1044 |
Log-Normal 2P | 0.1187 | 0.0618 | 0.1164 | 0.0907 * |
Gamma 2P | 0.1427 | 0.0798 | 0.1433 | 0.1025 |
Gamma 3P | N/A | 0.05595 | N/A | 0.09575 |
Log Pearson III | 0.09761 | 0.0511 | N/A | N/A |
Gumbel | 0.1347 | 0.045 * | 0.1478 | 0.0994 |
Log Gumbel | 0.0871 * | 0.0596 | 0.079 | 0.0924 |
Model | TR | 16022 | 16247 | 16055 | 16081 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MASVC | 2 | 34.99 | 40.05 | 47.73 | 31.65 |
5 | 43.78 | 50.47 | 59.49 | 47.45 | |
10 | 58.26 | 64.33 | 71.87 | 59.36 | |
20 | 69.58 | 79.31 | 84.41 | 72.07 | |
50 | 87.33 | 99.25 | 101.34 | 91.33 | |
100 | 102.25 | 112.2 | 116.51 | 105.23 | |
2 | 40.66 | 41.01 | 31.27 | 42.7 | |
5 | 52.61 | 56.2 | 43.61 | 53.75 | |
10 | 61.63 | 66.27 | 54.35 | 61.07 | |
20 | 71.03 | 75.93 | 67.13 | 68.09 | |
50 | 84.27 | 88.49 | 88.23 | 77.18 | |
100 | 95.02 | 98 | 108.28 | 83.99 |
Subbasin * | Area (km2) | Height Difference (m) | Length of the Main Channel (m) | Slope (%) | Concentration Time (h) | CN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 308.32 | 898 | 30,833.01 | 2.41 | 3.62 | 76.35 |
2 | 47.62 | 1132 | 16,106.46 | 5.72 | 1.56 | 78.36 |
4 | 24.3 | 459 | 11,451.81 | 5.32 | 1.49 | 84.47 |
5 | 26.67 | 561 | 12,862.88 | 4.58 | 1.58 | 83.14 |
6 | 86.79 | 416 | 21,086.86 | 1.13 | 3.13 | 77.03 |
8 | 18.85 | 230 | 9394.3 | 2.46 | 1.55 | 84.16 |
12 | 40.19 | 792 | 14,307.83 | 4.77 | 1.56 | 85.09 |
13 | 10.01 | 258 | 4614.52 | 5.14 | 0.65 | 86.87 |
14 | 6.11 | 220 | 4114.46 | 3.95 | 0.61 | 86.02 |
15 | 11.3 | 671 | 9878.71 | 3.67 | 1.08 | 84.67 |
16 | 10.71 | 1.93 | 453.54 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 87.21 |
Model | * Subbasin/Tr | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 50 | 100 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MASVC-SCS-CN | 1 | 9.68 | 35.01 | 88.48 | 166.82 | 298.97 | 394.90 |
2 | 0.32 | 1.49 | 9.86 | 20.72 | 44.11 | 68.85 | |
4 | 0.11 | 1.45 | 5.39 | 11.93 | 25.73 | 38.10 | |
5 | 1.45 | 6.11 | 13.08 | 22.26 | 36.62 | 53.63 | |
6 | 4.38 | 13.76 | 28.25 | 47.08 | 78.03 | 110.21 | |
8 | 0.11 | 1.17 | 25.30 | 30.72 | 38.93 | 44.85 | |
12 | 0.93 | 2.51 | 9.08 | 19.89 | 42.50 | 62.65 | |
13 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 2.86 | 7.39 | 17.72 | 27.20 | |
14 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 1.75 | 4.29 | 10.12 | 16.44 | |
15 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 1.93 | 4.64 | 10.78 | 17.52 | |
16 | 0.23 | 0.94 | 2.95 | 6.09 | 12.43 | 17.95 | |
PDF-SCS-CN | 1 | 10.56 | 52.59 | 104.17 | 142.81 | 217.25 | 280.62 |
2 | 0.98 | 7.06 | 16.79 | 25.42 | 44.15 | 62.26 | |
4 | 0.91 | 4.24 | 5.08 | 7.64 | 17.92 | 23.30 | |
5 | 0.33 | 1.11 | 5.81 | 11.47 | 28.00 | 48.51 | |
6 | 2.21 | 3.06 | 13.73 | 25.48 | 59.66 | 101.38 | |
8 | 0.67 | 3.16 | 3.79 | 5.68 | 13.39 | 17.45 | |
12 | 1.40 | 6.67 | 7.99 | 12.02 | 28.33 | 36.87 | |
13 | 0.11 | 1.73 | 2.15 | 3.72 | 10.53 | 14.29 | |
14 | 0.10 | 0.90 | 2.74 | 4.70 | 8.98 | 13.24 | |
15 | 0.06 | 1.34 | 3.74 | 6.01 | 11.05 | 16.06 | |
16 | 0.60 | 2.29 | 2.61 | 3.91 | 8.65 | 11.06 |
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Hernández-Bedolla, J.; García-Romero, L.; Franco-Navarro, C.D.; Sánchez-Quispe, S.T.; Domínguez-Sánchez, C. Extreme Runoff Estimation for Ungauged Watersheds Using a New Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Model MASVC. Water 2023, 15, 2994. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162994
Hernández-Bedolla J, García-Romero L, Franco-Navarro CD, Sánchez-Quispe ST, Domínguez-Sánchez C. Extreme Runoff Estimation for Ungauged Watersheds Using a New Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Model MASVC. Water. 2023; 15(16):2994. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162994
Chicago/Turabian StyleHernández-Bedolla, Joel, Liliana García-Romero, Chrystopher Daly Franco-Navarro, Sonia Tatiana Sánchez-Quispe, and Constantino Domínguez-Sánchez. 2023. "Extreme Runoff Estimation for Ungauged Watersheds Using a New Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Model MASVC" Water 15, no. 16: 2994. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162994
APA StyleHernández-Bedolla, J., García-Romero, L., Franco-Navarro, C. D., Sánchez-Quispe, S. T., & Domínguez-Sánchez, C. (2023). Extreme Runoff Estimation for Ungauged Watersheds Using a New Multisite Multivariate Stochastic Model MASVC. Water, 15(16), 2994. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162994