Detection of Spatial Shift in Flood Regime of the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan, Causes, Challenges, and Opportunities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data Description
2.1. Study Area
Population in the KRB
2.2. Data
2.2.1. Hydrological and Meteorological Data
2.2.2. Soil and Land Use Data
3. Methods
3.1. Preliminary Analysis
3.1.1. Analysis of Annual, Seasonal, and Peak over Threshold Flood Regime
Flood Indicators
Independence of Flood Peaks
Selection of Threshold for POT Series
Meteorological Indices
3.2. Trend Analysis
3.3. Change Point Detection for Flood Time Series
3.4. Flood Modeling with HEC–HMS
3.4.1. Basin Model
3.4.2. Meteorological Model
3.4.3. Calibration and Validation of HEC–HMS
3.4.4. Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) Impact on the Extreme Flood of 2010
3.4.5. Assessment of Model Performance
4. Results
4.1. Analysis of Floods at Annual, Seasonal, and Peak over Threshold
4.1.1. The Decision of Threshold for POT-Based Flood Series
4.1.2. Spatial and Temporal Trends in Flood Regime of the KRB (1961/64-2015)
4.1.3. Change Point Analysis
4.1.4. Trends in Flood Regime Posterior to Change Point
4.2. Probable Causes of Floods in the KRB, Pakistan
4.2.1. Spatial and Temporal Changes in Mean Annual Temperature across the KRB
4.2.2. Spatial and Temporal Trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices
4.2.3. Land Use Cover Changes in the KRB from 1992–2015
4.2.4. Calibration and Validation of HEC–HMS
4.2.5. Impact of LUCC on Flood Peak in Past and Future
5. Discussion
5.1. Analysis of Annual, Seasonal, POT Series, and Probable Causes of Floods in KRB
5.1.1. Analysis Posterior to Change Point in Flood Regime
5.1.2. Impact of LUCC on Extreme Flood of 2010 in Past and Future
6. Conclusions
Recommendations, Challenges, and Opportunities
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Site# | River | Station | Flow Regime | Basin Area (km2) | Record (Years) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kabul | Nowshera | Rainfall-dominated | 87,499 | 52 (1964–2015) |
2 | Chitral | Chitral | Seasonal snowmelt regime | 11,396 | 52 (1964–2015) |
3 | Swat | Kalam | Seasonal snowmelt regime | 2020 | 50 (1961–2010) |
4 | Swat | Chakdara | Seasonal snowmelt and rainfall | 6066 | 55 (1961–2015) |
5 | Bara | Jhansi Post | Rainfall-dominated | 1847 | 54 (1962–2015) |
Sr | Station | Record (Years) | Variables |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Drosh | 1961–2014 | Precipitation & Temperature |
2 | Kalam | 1961–2015 * | Precipitation & Temperature |
3 | Saidu Sharif | 1974–2014 | Precipitation & Temperature |
4 | Dir | 1967–2014 | Precipitation & Temperature |
5 | Chitral | 1961–2015 | Precipitation & Temperature |
6 | Cherat | 1961–2015 | Precipitation & Temperature |
7 | Peshawer | 1961–2015 | Precipitation & Temperature |
Flood Indicators | Abbreviations | Description | Flood Characteristics |
---|---|---|---|
Annual maximum flow (m3/s) | AMF | Maximum daily flow during a hydrological year | Magnitude |
Annual maximum flow from spring to pre-monsoon (m3/s) | AMFsp | Maximum daily flow including spring to pre-monsoon (March–15 June) | Magnitude |
Peak over threshold magnitude (m3/s) | POT3M | Flow peaks over the threshold that lead to an average of 2.4–3 events per year | Magnitude |
Peak over threshold frequency (number of events per year) | POT3F | Annual number of flow events in POT3 series | Frequency |
Indicators | Abbreviations | Unit |
---|---|---|
Annual Mean Temperature | Tmean | °C |
Maximum length of dry spell | CDD | d |
Maximum length of wet spell | CWD | d |
Annual total precipitation in wet days | PRCPTOT | mm |
Annual count of days when precipitation ≥ 10 mm | R10 | d |
Annual count of days when precipitation ≥ 20 mm | R20 | d |
Annual count of days when precipitation ≥ 25 mm | R25 | d |
Annual total precipitation when “daily precipitation amount on wet day > 95th percentile” | R95PTOT | mm |
Annual total precipitation when “daily precipitation amount on wet day > 99th percentile” | R99PTOT | mm |
Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation | Rx1day | mm |
Monthly maximum 5-day precipitation | Rx5day | mm |
Simple precipitation intensity index; Let RRwj be the daily precipitation amount on wet days, w (RR ≥ 1 mm) in period j. If W represents number of wet days in j, then: SDIIj = | SDII | mm/d |
Sr | Station | Lambda λ | Chi-Squared Critical Value | Chi-Squared Observed Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nowshera | 2.6 | 15.51 | 13.17 |
2 | Chitral | 2.731 | 15.51 | 9.968 |
3 | Kalam | 2.51 | 15.51 | 5.113 |
4 | Chakdara | 2.4 | 15.51 | 14.736 |
5 | Jhansi Post | 2.585 | 15.51 | 11.6 |
Sr | Station | AMF | AMFsp | POT3M | POT3F |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nowshera | −0.35 | −1.27 | −1.8 + | −0.59 |
2 | Chitral | 2.86 ** | 1.56 | 0.61 | 0.95 |
3 | Kalam | −1.36 | −1.45 | −0.08 | −2.35 * |
4 | Chakdara | 1.03 | 1.41 | 1.73 + | −0.75 |
5 | Jhansi Post | −2.31 * | −2.67 ** | −0.5 | −2.23 * |
Sr | Station | AMF | AMFsp | POT3M | POT3F | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pettitt’s | Buishand’s | SNHT | Pettitt’s | Buishand’s | SNHT | Pettitt’s | Buishand’s | SNHT | Pettitt’s | Buishand’s | SNHT | ||
1 | Nowshera | 1968 | 2004 | 2009 | 1969 | 1969 | 1968 | 1978 | 1968 | 1965 | 1969 | 1969 | 1969 |
2 | Chitral | 1991 | 1991 | 1991 | 2000 | 1987 | 1964 | 1981 | 1981 | 1972 | 1992 | 1992 | 1965 |
3 | Kalam | 1997 | 1999 | 1999 | 1996 | 1998 | 1998 | 1997 | 1963 | 1963 | 1995 | 1995 | 1998 |
4 | Chakdara | 1987 | 1987 | 1987 | 1989 | 1989 | 1989 | 1991 | 1973 | 1973 | 1998 | 1998 | 2010 |
5 | Jhansi Post | 1994 | 1983 | 1967 | 1983 | 1983 | 1967 | 1991 | 2009 | 2009 | 1983 | 1976 | 1976 |
Sr | Station | AMF | AMFsp | POT3M | POT3F |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nowshera | 1.06 | 0.24 | 1.39 | 0.41 |
2 | Chitral | −0.74 | −0.88 | −0.66 | 0.1 |
3 | Kalam | −0.89 | −1.4 | −1.24 | −0.83 |
4 | Chakdara | −0.34 | −1.04 | −0.91 | −0.71 |
5 | Jhansi Post | 2.09 * | 0.65 | −2.22 * | 0.72 |
Sr | Station | Entire Series | 1981–2015 |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Drosh | 0.22 | −0.02 |
2 | Kalam | 0.22 | 0.22 |
3 | Saidu Sharif | 0.43 | 0.60 |
4 | Dir | 1.23 | 3.18 ** |
5 | Chitral | 1.92 + | 2.00 * |
6 | Cherat | −1.68 + | 1.77 + |
7 | Peshawer | 3.58 *** | 1.82 * |
Indices | Stations | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chitral | Drosh | Kalam | Saidu Sharif | Dir | Peshawar | Cherat | |
CDD | −1.62 | 0.52 | −1.88 + | 1.66 + | 0.78 | 0.2 | −0.8 |
CWD | 0.48 | −3.69 *** | −1.08 | 1.17 | 0.63 | 1.87 + | −0.6 |
PRCPTOT | 0.16 | −1.38 | 1.13 | 1.95 + | 0.19 | 2.87 ** | 1.66 + |
R10mm | 0.55 | −0.62 | 0.81 | 1.99 * | 0.4 | 3.02 ** | 1.52 |
R20mm | 0.3 | −0.13 | 0.29 | 1.51 | 0.49 | 3.44 *** | 1.67 + |
R25mm | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.96 | 1.68 + | 0 | 3.36 *** | 1.70 + |
R95p | −0.18 | 0.33 | 1.66 + | 1.52 | −0.14 | 1.87 + | 1.15 |
R99p | −0.57 | −1.32 | 1.97 * | 0.22 | 0.65 | 0.98 | 2.73 ** |
R1*Day | 0.43 | 0.48 | 1.56 | 2.47 * | 0.83 | 1.94 + | 2.22 * |
R5*Day | 1.07 | 0.11 | 2.09 * | 2.37 * | 1.32 | 2.23 * | 1.58 |
SDII | −0.28 | 2.95 ** | −0.05 | 0.61 | −0.53 | 2.14 * | 1.21 |
Class Name | 1992 (km2) | 2000 (km2) | 2010 (km2) | 2015 (km2) | % (1992–2000) | % (2000–2010) | % (2010–2015) | % (1992–2015) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forest | 5839.56 | 5538.96 | 5542.56 | 5535.36 | −5.43 | 0.06 | −0.13 | −5.21 |
Urban Areas | 40.14 | 48.51 | 264.78 | 341.91 | 17.25 | 81.68 | 22.56 | 88.26 |
Grassland | 17,680.1 | 17,776.7 | 17,685.4 | 17,688.3 | 0.54 | −0.52 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
Agriculture | 8795.25 | 8990.82 | 8874.63 | 8801.91 | 2.18 | −1.31 | −0.83 | 0.08 |
Water Body | 33.12 | 33.12 | 33.03 | 32.94 | 0 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.54 |
Snow Cover | 1192.05 | 1192.05 | 1192.05 | 1192.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bare Areas | 1964.7 | 1964.7 | 1952.37 | 1952.37 | 0 | −0.63 | 0 | −0.63 |
Peak Flow (m3 s−1) | Time of Peak (Hours) | Nash Efficiency (NS) | Coefficient of Determination (R2) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Calibration Event 27 July 2010 to 5 August 2010 | ||||
Observed | 9808 | 30 July 2010, 18 p.m. | 0.86 | 0.85 |
Simulated | 9871 | 31 July 2010, 00 a.m. | ||
Difference Dp (%) | 0.63% | 6 h | ||
Validation Event 7 August 2010 to 14 August 2010 | ||||
Observed | 7054 | 09 August 2010, 14 p.m. | 0.84 | 0.83 |
Simulated | 6578 | 08 August 2010, 12 a.m. | ||
Difference Dp (%) | 6.74% | 26 h |
Sr 1 | Chitral River Basin | Swat River Basin | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual Rainfall | Monsoon Rainfall | Annual Rainfall | Monsoon Rainfall | |||||
ES | ACP | ES | ACP | ES | ACP | ES | ACP | |
1 | 0.55 | −1.74 + | 1.73 + | −1.06 | 1.58 | 0.28 | 1.79 + | 0.06 |
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Mehmood, A.; Jia, S.; Lv, A.; Zhu, W.; Mahmood, R.; Saifullah, M.; Adnan, R.M. Detection of Spatial Shift in Flood Regime of the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan, Causes, Challenges, and Opportunities. Water 2021, 13, 1276. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091276
Mehmood A, Jia S, Lv A, Zhu W, Mahmood R, Saifullah M, Adnan RM. Detection of Spatial Shift in Flood Regime of the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan, Causes, Challenges, and Opportunities. Water. 2021; 13(9):1276. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091276
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmood, Asif, Shaofeng Jia, Aifeng Lv, Wenbin Zhu, Rashid Mahmood, Muhammad Saifullah, and Rana Muhammad Adnan. 2021. "Detection of Spatial Shift in Flood Regime of the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan, Causes, Challenges, and Opportunities" Water 13, no. 9: 1276. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13091276