The Cross-Dike Failure Probability by Wave Overtopping over Grass-Covered and Damaged Dikes
1
Department of Marine and Fluvial Systems, University of Twente, Drienerlolaan 5, 7522 NB Enschede, The Netherlands
2
Antea Group, Tolhuisweg 57, 8443 DV Heerenveen, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Miguel Á. Toledo
Water 2021, 13(5), 690; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050690
Received: 23 December 2020
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Revised: 22 February 2021
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Accepted: 26 February 2021
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Published: 3 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Dam Safety. Overtopping and Geostructural Risks)
A probabilistic framework is developed to calculate the cross-dike failure probability by overtopping waves on grass-covered dikes. The cross-dike failure probability of dike profiles including transitions and damages can be computed to find the most likely location of failure and quantify the decrease in the failure probability when this location is strengthened. The erosion depth along the dike profile is calculated using probability distributions for the water level, wind speed and dike cover strength. Failure is defined as the exceedance of 20 cm erosion depth when the topsoil of the grass cover is eroded. The cross-dike failure probability shows that the landward toe is the most vulnerable location for wave overtopping. Herein, the quality of the grass cover significantly affects the failure probability up to a factor 1000. Next, the failure probability for different types of damages on the landward slope are calculated. In case of a damage where the grass cover is still intact and strong, the dike is most likely to fail at the landward toe due to high flow velocity and additional load due to the slope change. However, when the grass cover is also damaged, the probability of failure at the damage is between 4 and 125 times higher than for a regular dike profile.
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Keywords:
wave overtopping; erosion; levee; cover; probabilistic framework
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MDPI and ACS Style
van Bergeijk, V.M.; Verdonk, V.A.; Warmink, J.J.; Hulscher, S.J.M.H. The Cross-Dike Failure Probability by Wave Overtopping over Grass-Covered and Damaged Dikes. Water 2021, 13, 690. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050690
AMA Style
van Bergeijk VM, Verdonk VA, Warmink JJ, Hulscher SJMH. The Cross-Dike Failure Probability by Wave Overtopping over Grass-Covered and Damaged Dikes. Water. 2021; 13(5):690. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050690
Chicago/Turabian Stylevan Bergeijk, Vera M., Vincent A. Verdonk, Jord J. Warmink, and Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher. 2021. "The Cross-Dike Failure Probability by Wave Overtopping over Grass-Covered and Damaged Dikes" Water 13, no. 5: 690. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050690
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