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Article

Projection of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands Projections Impacts on Hydropower Generation in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

1
Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Department (DEHA), Federal University of Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza-CE 60455-760, Brazil
2
Higher Engineering Institute of Porto (ISEP), 4200-072 Porto, Portugal
3
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME), Fortaleza-CE 60115-221, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Shuo Wang
Water 2021, 13(3), 332; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030332
Received: 30 December 2020 / Revised: 22 January 2021 / Accepted: 25 January 2021 / Published: 29 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydro-Meteorological Hazards under Climate Change)
Climate change impacts may influence hydropower generation, especially with the intensification of extreme events and growing demand. In this study, we analyzed future hydroelectric generation using a set of scenarios considering both climate change and consumptive demands in the São Francisco River Basin. This project will increase consumptive demands for the coming decades. Five models from the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were considered to estimate climate change projections. The affluent natural flows, regulated flows, and the hydroelectric energy generated were estimated for four multi-purpose reservoirs considering all existing and new demands. The conjunction of scenarios indicated a possible significant reduction in water availability, increased consumptive demands, especially for irrigation, and reduced power generation. Only at the Sobradinho hydroelectric plant, the decrease ranged from −30% to −50% for the period 2021 to 2050 compared to the historical period (1901 to 2000). The results can provide insights into future energy generation and water resources management in the basin. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; hydroelectric generation; conflicting demands; water resources management climate change; hydroelectric generation; conflicting demands; water resources management
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MDPI and ACS Style

da Silva, M.V.M.; Silveira, C.d.S.; Costa, J.M.F.d.; Martins, E.S.P.R.; Vasconcelos Júnior, F.d.C. Projection of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands Projections Impacts on Hydropower Generation in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. Water 2021, 13, 332. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030332

AMA Style

da Silva MVM, Silveira CdS, Costa JMFd, Martins ESPR, Vasconcelos Júnior FdC. Projection of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands Projections Impacts on Hydropower Generation in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. Water. 2021; 13(3):332. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030332

Chicago/Turabian Style

da Silva, Marx V.M., Cleiton d.S. Silveira, José M.F.d. Costa, Eduardo S.P.R. Martins, and Francisco d.C. Vasconcelos Júnior. 2021. "Projection of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands Projections Impacts on Hydropower Generation in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil" Water 13, no. 3: 332. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030332

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