Next Article in Journal
Review on Numerical Simulation of the Internal Soil Erosion Mechanisms Using the Discrete Element Method
Previous Article in Journal
Climate Change-Enhanced Cyanobacteria Domination in Lake Kinneret: A Retrospective Overview
Previous Article in Special Issue
Impact of Climate Change on Nearshore Waves at a Beach Protected by a Barrier Reef
Open AccessArticle

Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections

1
Institute of River and Coastal Engineering, Hamburg University of Technology, Denickestr. 22, 21073 Hamburg, Germany
2
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2021, 13(2), 167; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020167
Received: 30 October 2020 / Revised: 23 December 2020 / Accepted: 6 January 2021 / Published: 12 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effect of Climate Change on Coastal Hydrodynamics)
In this study, the projected future long-term changes of the local wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast over the course of the 21st century are analyzed and assessed with special focus on model agreement, statistical significance and ranges/spread of the results. An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data. The outstanding feature of the simulations is that the data are available with a high horizontal resolution and at hourly timesteps which is a high temporal resolution and beneficial for the wind–wave modelling. A new data interface between RCM output data and wind–wave modelling has been developed. Suitable spatial aggregation methods of the RCM wind data have been tested and used to generate input for the calculation of waves at quasi deep-water conditions and at a mean water level with a hybrid approach that enables the fast compilation of future long-term time series of significant wave height, mean wave period and direction for an ensemble of RCM data. Changes of the average wind and wave conditions have been found, with a majority of the changes occurring for the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and at the end of the 21st century. At westerly wind-exposed locations mainly increasing values of the wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period have been noted. In contrast, at easterly wind-exposed locations, decreasing values are predominant. Regarding the changes of the mean wind and wave directions, westerly directions becoming more frequent. Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data. View Full-Text
Keywords: REMO; EURO-CORDEX; SWAN; wind–wave correlations; regional climate change projections; average wave conditions; extreme wave events; model spread; variability; uncertainty REMO; EURO-CORDEX; SWAN; wind–wave correlations; regional climate change projections; average wave conditions; extreme wave events; model spread; variability; uncertainty
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Dreier, N.; Nehlsen, E.; Fröhle, P.; Rechid, D.; Bouwer, L.M.; Pfeifer, S. Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections. Water 2021, 13, 167. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020167

AMA Style

Dreier N, Nehlsen E, Fröhle P, Rechid D, Bouwer LM, Pfeifer S. Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections. Water. 2021; 13(2):167. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020167

Chicago/Turabian Style

Dreier, Norman; Nehlsen, Edgar; Fröhle, Peter; Rechid, Diana; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Pfeifer, Susanne. 2021. "Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections" Water 13, no. 2: 167. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020167

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop