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Article

Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Supply and Demand Balance under Drought Risk and Its Relationship with Maize Yield: A Case Study in Midwestern Jilin Province, China

by 1,2,3, 1,2,3, 4, 1,2,3, 5, 1,2,3 and 1,2,3,*
1
School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
2
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
3
Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, China
4
School of Horticulture, Jilin Agricultural University, No. 2888 Xincheng Street, Nanguan, Changchun 130117, China
5
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Changchun Normal University, Changchun 130032, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Maria Mimikou
Water 2021, 13(18), 2490; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182490
Received: 10 August 2021 / Revised: 1 September 2021 / Accepted: 6 September 2021 / Published: 10 September 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimization of Water Use in Agricultural Systems)
Under the background of global warming, the frequent occurrence and long-term persistence of drought events have substantial negative effects on agricultural production. As the main maize production area in midwestern Jilin Province, frequent drought and a shortage of irrigation water pose substantial threats to the production of maize. We analyzed the balance of water supply and demand in each growth period and the degree of maize yield affected by drought. The results indicate that the FIO-ESM climate model can effectively simulate the changes in temperature and precipitation, and was highly applicable to the study area. From 1980 to 2020, the drought risk indices for the sowing to jointing, jointing to tasseling, tasseling to milk-ripe, and milk-ripe to maturity stages were 0.62, 0.52, 0.48, and 0.60, respectively. In the future, the chances of a RCP8.5 scenario drought risk and an enhanced RCP4.5 scenario have eased. Spatially, the high-risk areas shift in a “west−central−southwest” pattern. Effective precipitation will decrease in the future, while the increasing water requirement of maize increases the dependence on irrigation water. The irrigation requirement index is more than 70% for all periods, particularly in the milk-ripe to maturity stage. The relative meteorological yields were positively correlated with the CWDI of the whole growth period, with the rate of reduction in maize yield and the yield reduction coefficient of variation at a high level of risk between 1980 and 2020. In the future, the negative impact of drought risk on the yield of maize lessened with no obvious trend in production. In particular, the rate of reduction and reduction coefficient of variation for the RCP8.5 scenario were 1.24 and 1.09, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: maize yield; drought; crop water deficit index; effective precipitation; irrigation requirement index; water supply and demand balance maize yield; drought; crop water deficit index; effective precipitation; irrigation requirement index; water supply and demand balance
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ma, Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhao, C.; Li, K.; Dong, S.; Liu, X.; Tong, Z. Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Supply and Demand Balance under Drought Risk and Its Relationship with Maize Yield: A Case Study in Midwestern Jilin Province, China. Water 2021, 13, 2490. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182490

AMA Style

Ma Y, Zhang J, Zhao C, Li K, Dong S, Liu X, Tong Z. Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Supply and Demand Balance under Drought Risk and Its Relationship with Maize Yield: A Case Study in Midwestern Jilin Province, China. Water. 2021; 13(18):2490. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182490

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ma, Yining, Jiquan Zhang, Chunli Zhao, Kaiwei Li, Shuna Dong, Xingpeng Liu, and Zhijun Tong. 2021. "Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Supply and Demand Balance under Drought Risk and Its Relationship with Maize Yield: A Case Study in Midwestern Jilin Province, China" Water 13, no. 18: 2490. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182490

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