Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Methodology
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Methodology
2.2.1. Eco-Lab Model
2.2.2. LHS Uncertainty Analysis Method
2.2.3. Morris Sensitivity Analysis Method
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Calibration and Validation
3.2. Spatiotemporal Uncertainty Analysis of the Input Conditions
3.3. Vertical Sensitivity Analysis of the Input Conditions
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Parameters | Calibration | Unit | Parameters | Calibration | Unit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
mymg | 2.1 | (d) | prel | 0.003 | g P/m2/day |
sep | 0.15 | (d) | ters | 1.02 | dimensionless |
seve | 0.1 | meter/day | pnmi | 0.08 | g N/g C |
kdma | 0.05 | (d) | pnma | 0.13 | g N/g C |
kra | 3 | (d) | ppmi | 0.006 | g P/g C |
kmdm | 0.02 | (d) | ppma | 0.08 | g P/g C |
pla | 20 | m2/g Chl-a | kc | 0.005 | g P/g C |
bla | 0.456 | m2 | kni | 0.15 | g N/g C/day |
kmsc | 1 | dimensionless | kpi | 0.008 | g P/g C/day |
kmsn | 0.3 | dimensionless | kpn | 0.2 | g N/m3 |
kmsp | 0.8 | dimensionless | kpp | 0.02 | g P/m3 |
mdo | 5.5 | mg/L | vm | 0.1 | dimensionless |
mdos | 3.5 | mg/L | fac | 1.3 | dimensionless |
ndo | 1.03 | dimensionless | alfaeu | 25 | E/m2/d |
tere | 1.04 | dimensionless | teti | 1.05 | dimensionless |
kmdn | 1 | dimensionless | epsi | 0.005 | dimensionless |
kmdp | 1 | dimensionless | vo | 3.5 | g DO/g C |
tetn | 1.02 | dimensionless | lcg | 0.16 | (d) |
tetp | 1.02 | dimensionless | optg | 28 | (d) |
nrel | 0.02 | g N/m2/day |
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Input Condition | Lower | Upper | Unit |
---|---|---|---|
Discharge | 50 | 150 | % |
C | |||
N | |||
P | |||
Wind speed | |||
Surface elevation | −0.6 | 0.6 | m |
Air temperature | −5 | 5 | °C |
Indicators | Time | RMSE | MRE | R2 | NSE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
TP | Calibration | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.939 | 0.841 |
Validation | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.842 | 0.779 | |
TN | Calibration | 0.207 | 0.170 | 0.938 | 0.990 |
Validation | 0.309 | 0.244 | 0.925 | 0.959 | |
Chl-a | Calibration | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.847 | 0.992 |
Validation | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.829 | 0.988 | |
DO | Calibration | 0.929 | 0.777 | 0.889 | 0.991 |
Validation | 0.947 | 0.805 | 0.798 | 0.990 |
External Factor | Method | Indicator | Conclusions | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wind, temperature | Experiment | Algal blooms, DO | Wind field plays a key role in algae growth. | [55] |
Wind | Experiment | TN, TP | Wind field plays an important role in sediment resuspension. | [32] |
Discharge, nitrogen, phosphorus | Model | Algal blooms | Lake ecological management still needs a long-term process. | [56] |
Nitrogen, phosphorus | Experiment | Chl-a | Nutrients promote algae growth, but they are not the decisive factor in Tai Lake. | [57] |
Surface elevation, nitrogen, phosphorus | Experiment | Chl-a | The vertical release of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sediment leads to the continued existence of algae. | [27] |
Discharge, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, wind speed, surface elevation, temperature | Model | Chl-a, DO, TN, TP | The improvement in the hydrodynamic force promotes algae growth. The control of pollution input can effectively reduce the pollution concentration of the lake, but it cannot immediately solve the risk of an algae outbreak. | This study |
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Pang, M.; Xu, R.; Hu, Z.; Wang, J.; Wang, Y. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods. Water 2021, 13, 1861. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861
Pang M, Xu R, Hu Z, Wang J, Wang Y. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods. Water. 2021; 13(13):1861. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861
Chicago/Turabian StylePang, Min, Ruichen Xu, Zhibing Hu, Jianjian Wang, and Ying Wang. 2021. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods" Water 13, no. 13: 1861. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861