Revision of Frequency Estimates of Extreme Precipitation Based on the Annual Maximum Series in the Jiangsu Province in China
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School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China
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Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
3
Kunshan Meteorology Bereaus, Kunshan 215300, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Yuanfang Chen, Dong Wang, Dedi Liu, Binquan Li and Ashish Sharma
Water 2021, 13(13), 1832; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131832
Received: 24 May 2021
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Revised: 22 June 2021
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Accepted: 26 June 2021
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Published: 30 June 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistics in Hydrology)
Frequency estimates of extreme precipitation are revised using a regional L-moments method based on the annual maximum series and Chow’s equation at lower return periods for the Jiangsu area in China. First, the study area is divided into five homogeneous regions, and the optimum distribution for each region is determined by an integrative assessment. Second, underestimation of quantiles and the applicability of Chow’s equation are verified. The results show that quantiles are underestimated based on the annual maximum series, and that Chow’s formula is applicable for the study area. Next, two methods are used to correct the underestimation of frequency estimation. A set of rational and reliable frequency estimations is obtained using the regional L-moments method and the two revised methods, which can indirectly provide a robust basis for flood control and water resource management. This study extends previous works by verifying underestimation of the quantiles and the provision of two improved methods for obtaining reliable quantile estimations of extreme precipitation at lower recurrence intervals, especially in solving reliable estimates for a 1-year return period from the integral lower limit of the frequency distribution.
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Keywords:
regional l-moments; revision of frequency estimation of extreme precipitation; chow’s equation; annual maximum series; annual exceedance series
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MDPI and ACS Style
Shao, Y.; Zhao, J.; Xu, J.; Fu, A.; Wu, J. Revision of Frequency Estimates of Extreme Precipitation Based on the Annual Maximum Series in the Jiangsu Province in China. Water 2021, 13, 1832. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131832
AMA Style
Shao Y, Zhao J, Xu J, Fu A, Wu J. Revision of Frequency Estimates of Extreme Precipitation Based on the Annual Maximum Series in the Jiangsu Province in China. Water. 2021; 13(13):1832. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131832
Chicago/Turabian StyleShao, Yuehong, Jun Zhao, Jinchao Xu, Aolin Fu, and Junmei Wu. 2021. "Revision of Frequency Estimates of Extreme Precipitation Based on the Annual Maximum Series in the Jiangsu Province in China" Water 13, no. 13: 1832. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131832
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