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Open AccessArticle

Integrated Real-Time Flood Forecasting and Inundation Analysis in Small–Medium Streams

1
National Civil Defense and Disaster Management Training Institute, Ministry of the Interior and Safety, 269 Taejosan-gil, Dongnam-gu, Cheonan 31068, Korea
2
National Disaster Management Research Institute, Ministry of the Interior and Safety, 365 Jongga-ro, Jung-gu, Ulsan 44538, Korea
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Buk-gu Daegu 41566, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(5), 919; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050919
Received: 8 April 2019 / Revised: 25 April 2019 / Accepted: 29 April 2019 / Published: 1 May 2019
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Abstract

This study presents the application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and one dimensional (1-D) and two dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic models to improve the problems of hydrological models currently used for flood forecasting in small–medium streams of South Korea. The optimal combination of input variables (e.g., rainfall and water level) in ANFIS was selected based on a statistical analysis of the observed and forecasted values. Two membership functions (MFs) and two ANFIS rules were determined by the subtractive clustering (SC) approach in the processes of training and checking. The developed ANFIS was applied to Jungrang Stream and water levels for six lead times (0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 hour) were forecasted. Based on point forecasted water levels by ANFIS, 1-D section flood forecast and 2-D spatial inundation analysis were carried out. This study demonstrated that the proposed methodology can forecast flooding based only on observed rainfall and water level without extensive physical and topographic data, and can be performed in real-time by integrating point- and section flood forecasting and spatial inundation analysis. View Full-Text
Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS); real-time; flood forecasting; inundation analysis; small–medium stream adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS); real-time; flood forecasting; inundation analysis; small–medium stream
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Kim, B.; Choi, S.Y.; Han, K.-Y. Integrated Real-Time Flood Forecasting and Inundation Analysis in Small–Medium Streams. Water 2019, 11, 919.

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