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A New Uncertainty Measure for Assessing the Uncertainty Existing in Hydrological Simulation

1
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
4
CSIRO Digital Productivity Flagship, Leeuwin Centre, 65 Brockway Road, Floreat, WA 6014, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(4), 812; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040812
Received: 3 March 2019 / Revised: 13 April 2019 / Accepted: 16 April 2019 / Published: 18 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

The absence of aggregated uncertainty measures restricts the assessment of uncertainty in hydrological simulation. In this work, a new composite uncertainty measure is developed to evaluate the complex behaviors of uncertainty existing in hydrological simulation. The composite uncertainty measure is constructed based on a framework, which includes three steps: (1) identification of behavioral measures by analyzing the pairwise correlations among different measures and removing high correlations; (2) weight assignment by means of a new hierarchical weight assembly (HWA) approach incorporating the intra-class and inter-class weights; (3) construction of a composite uncertainty measure through incorporating multiple properties of the measure matrix. The framework and the composite uncertainty measure are demonstrated by case studies in uncertainty assessment for hydrological simulation. Results indicate that the framework is efficient to generate a composite uncertainty index (denoted as CUI) and the new measure CUI is competent for uncertainty evaluation. Besides, the HWA approach performs well in weighting, which can characterize subjective and objective properties of the information matrix. The achievement of this work provides promising insights into the performance comparison of uncertainty analysis approaches, the selection of proper cut-off threshold in the GLUE method, and the guidance of reasonable uncertainty assessment in a range of environmental modelling. View Full-Text
Keywords: uncertainty analysis; uncertainty measures; weight assignment; composite uncertainty index; hierarchical weight assembly approach; hydrological simulation uncertainty analysis; uncertainty measures; weight assignment; composite uncertainty index; hierarchical weight assembly approach; hydrological simulation
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Shi, P.; Yang, T.; Yong, B.; Li, Z.; Xu, C.-Y.; Shao, Q.; Wang, X.; Zhou, X.; Qin, Y. A New Uncertainty Measure for Assessing the Uncertainty Existing in Hydrological Simulation. Water 2019, 11, 812.

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