Next Article in Journal
Precipitation Isotopes Associated with the Duration and Distance of Moisture Trajectory in a Westerly-Dominant Setting
Next Article in Special Issue
Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain
Previous Article in Journal
Solution Approaches for the Management of the Water Resources in Irrigation Water Systems with Fuzzy Costs
Previous Article in Special Issue
Identifying Climate and Human Impact Trends in Streamflow: A Case Study in Uruguay
Open AccessArticle

Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
2
Utah Climate Center/Department of Plants, Soils & Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
3
State of Colorado’s Colorado River Representative, Denver, CO 80202, USA
4
Squire Patton Boggs, LLP., Denver, CO 80202, USA
5
Central Weather Bureau, Taipei 100, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(12), 2433; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122433
Received: 27 August 2019 / Revised: 7 November 2019 / Accepted: 14 November 2019 / Published: 20 November 2019
The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the US economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a decline in the 10-year averaged WS since 2013 before starting to increase around 2020. Comparison between this WS prediction and the WS projection published in a 2012 government report (derived from climate models) reveals a widened imbalance between supply and demand by 2020, a tendency that is confirmed by updated WS observation. Such information could aid in management decision-making in the face of near-future water shortages. View Full-Text
Keywords: time series; Colorado River; water supply; cross-validation; decadal prediction time series; Colorado River; water supply; cross-validation; decadal prediction
Show Figures

Graphical abstract

MDPI and ACS Style

Plucinski, B.; Sun, Y.; Wang, S.-Y.S.; Gillies, R.R.; Eklund, J.; Wang, C.-C. Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling. Water 2019, 11, 2433.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop