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Article

Towards a Transferable Antecedent Rainfall—Susceptibility Threshold Approach for Landsliding

1
Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Leuvensesteenweg 13, Tervuren 3080, Belgium
2
Department of Geography, University of Liège, Clos Mercator 3, Liège 4000, Belgium
3
F.R.S.-FNRS, Rue d’Egmont, 5, Brussels 1000, Belgium
4
Division of Geography and Tourism, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Heverlee 3001, Belgium
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(11), 2202; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112202
Received: 24 September 2019 / Revised: 21 October 2019 / Accepted: 21 October 2019 / Published: 23 October 2019
Determining rainfall thresholds for landsliding is crucial in landslide hazard evaluation and early warning system development, yet challenging in data-scarce regions. Using freely available satellite rainfall data in a reproducible automated procedure, the bootstrap-based frequentist threshold approach, coupling antecedent rainfall (AR) and landslide susceptibility data as proposed by Monsieurs et al., has proved to provide a physically meaningful regional AR threshold equation in the western branch of the East African Rift. However, previous studies could only rely on global- and continental-scale rainfall and susceptibility data. Here, we use newly available regional-scale susceptibility data to test the robustness of the method to different data configurations. This leads us to improve the threshold method through using stratified data selection to better exploit the data distribution over the whole range of susceptibility. In addition, we discuss the effect of outliers in small data sets on the estimation of parameter uncertainties and the interest of not using the bootstrap technique in such cases. Thus improved, the method effectiveness shows strongly reduced sensitivity to the used susceptibility data and is satisfyingly validated by new landslide occurrences in the East African Rift, therefore successfully passing first transferability tests. View Full-Text
Keywords: landslide hazard; antecedent rainfall threshold; landslide susceptibility; satellite-derived rainfall; TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA); tropical Africa landslide hazard; antecedent rainfall threshold; landslide susceptibility; satellite-derived rainfall; TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA); tropical Africa
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MDPI and ACS Style

Monsieurs, E.; Dewitte, O.; Depicker, A.; Demoulin, A. Towards a Transferable Antecedent Rainfall—Susceptibility Threshold Approach for Landsliding. Water 2019, 11, 2202. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112202

AMA Style

Monsieurs E, Dewitte O, Depicker A, Demoulin A. Towards a Transferable Antecedent Rainfall—Susceptibility Threshold Approach for Landsliding. Water. 2019; 11(11):2202. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112202

Chicago/Turabian Style

Monsieurs, Elise; Dewitte, Olivier; Depicker, Arthur; Demoulin, Alain. 2019. "Towards a Transferable Antecedent Rainfall—Susceptibility Threshold Approach for Landsliding" Water 11, no. 11: 2202. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112202

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