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Open AccessArticle

Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland

1
Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
2
Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznan, Poland
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(10), 2191; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102191
Received: 18 September 2019 / Revised: 9 October 2019 / Accepted: 15 October 2019 / Published: 21 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Riparian Vegetation in River Functioning)
Climate change is expected to affect the water cycle through changes in precipitation, river streamflow, and soil moisture dynamics, and therefore, present a threat to groundwater and surface water-fed wetland habitats and their biodiversity. This article examines the past trends and future impacts of climate change on riparian, water-dependent habitats within the special areas of conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. Hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was driven by a set of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Changes in the duration of flooding and inundation events were used to assess climate change’s impact on surface water-fed wetland habitats. The groundwater-fed wetlands were evaluated on the basis of changes in soil water content. Information about the current conservation status, threats, and pressures that affect the habitats suggest that the wetlands might dry out. Increased precipitation projected for the future causing increased water supply to both surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands would lead to beneficial outcomes for habitats with good, average, or reduced conservation status. However, habitats with an excellent conservation status that are already in optimum condition could be negatively affected by climate change as increased soil water or duration of overbank flow would exceed their tolerance. View Full-Text
Keywords: conservation status; hydrology; benefits; modelling; SWAT conservation status; hydrology; benefits; modelling; SWAT
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MDPI and ACS Style

O’Keeffe, J.; Marcinkowski, P.; Utratna, M.; Piniewski, M.; Kardel, I.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Okruszko, T. Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland. Water 2019, 11, 2191. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102191

AMA Style

O’Keeffe J, Marcinkowski P, Utratna M, Piniewski M, Kardel I, Kundzewicz ZW, Okruszko T. Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland. Water. 2019; 11(10):2191. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102191

Chicago/Turabian Style

O’Keeffe, Joanna; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Utratna, Marta; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Okruszko, Tomasz. 2019. "Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland" Water 11, no. 10: 2191. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102191

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