Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study area and Data
3. Methodology
3.1. Threshold Level Method
3.2. Bivariate Frequency Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Definition of a Drought Event
4.2. Drought Risk Analysis Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Model | Institution |
---|---|
CanESM2 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis |
CCSM4 | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
CESM1-BGC | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
CESM1-CAM5 | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
CMCC-CM | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici |
CMCC-CMS | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici |
CNRM-CM5 | Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques |
GFDL-ESM2G | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
GFDL-ESM2M | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
HadGEM2-AO | Met Office Hadley Centre |
HadGEM2-ES | Met Office Hadley Centre |
INM-CM4 | Institute for Numerical Mathematics |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace |
IPSL-CM5A-MR | Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace |
MIROC5 | Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute |
MPI-ESM-LR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology |
MPI-ESM-MR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology |
MRI-CGCM3 | Meteorological Research Institute |
NorESM1-M | Norwegian Climate Centre |
Name | Note | |
---|---|---|
Clayton | and denote random variates is a parameter. | |
Frank | ||
Gumbel |
Characteristics | Dataset | Han River | Nakdong River | Geum River | Seomjin River | Yeongsan River | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average Duration (mon) | Observed data | 3.42 | 3.56 | 3.41 | 3.47 | 3.43 | |
GCMs | Lowest | 3.18 (HadGEM2-AO) | 2.97 (HadGEM2-AO) | 3.19 (HadGEM2-AO) | 3.23 (IPSL-CM5A-MR) | 3.21 (HadGEM2-AO) | |
Highest | 3.73 (CFDL-ESM2M) | 3.83 (CMCC-CM) | 3.72 (CMCC-CM) | 3.73 (IPSL-CM5A-LR) | 3.87 (CFDL-ESM2M) | ||
Average | 3.44 | 3.51 | 3.50 | 3.51 | 3.47 | ||
Average Severity (mm) | Observed data | 660.8 | 600.3 | 601.8 | 711.2 | 630.9 | |
GCMs | Lowest | 599.9 (CESM1-BGC) | 503 (CESM1-BGC) | 558.5 (CESM1-BGC) | 654.7 (CESM1-BGC) | 579.2 (CESM1-BGC) | |
Highest | 804.1 (INM-CM4) | 725.4 (HadGEM2-AO) | 771.8 (HadGEM2-AO) | 832.7 (CNRM-CM5) | 742.3 (CFDL-ESM2M) | ||
Average | 685.73 | 6225.73 | 661.41 | 760.20 | 669.51 |
Characteristics | Dataset | Han River | Nakdong River | Geum River | Sumjin River | Yeongsan River | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average Duration (mon) | Observed data | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | |
GCMs | Lowest | 8 (CESM1-BGC) | 7 (HadGEM2-AO) | 9 (GFDL-ESM2M) | 7 (HadGEM2-AO) | 10 (CESM1-BGC) | |
Highest | 25 (MPI-ESM-MR) | 25 (MPI-ESM-MR) | 25 (MPI-ESM-MR) | 19 (CESM1-CAM5) | 29 (MPI-ESM-MR) | ||
Average | 13.2 | 11.9 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 13.8 | ||
Average Severity (mm) | Observed data | 2673.7 | 2127.6 | 2745.7 | 2238.8 | 2307.5 | |
GCMs | Lowest | 2169.9 (CESM1-BGC) | 1474.1 (CESM1-BGC) | 2526.3 (CMCC-CM) | 2020.7 (HadGEM2-AO) | 2073.1 (NorESM1-M) | |
Highest | 5081.9 (MPI-ESM-MR) | 3964.9 (MPI-ESM-MR) | 4793.6 (CanESM2) | 3823.5 (IPSL-CM5A-LR) | 4920.2 (MPI-ESM-MR) | ||
Average | 3132.62 | 2178.64 | 3278.40 | 2707.99 | 2757.99 |
Basin (River) | CanESM2 | CCSM4 | CESM1-BGC | CESM1-CAM5 | CMCC-CM | CMCC-CMS | CNRM-CM5 | GFDL-ESM2G | GFDL-ESM2M | HadGEM2-AO | HadGEM2-ES | INM-CM4 | IPSL-CM5A-LR | IPSL-CM5A-MR | MIROC5 | MPI-ESM-LR | MPI-ESM-MR | MRI-CGCM3 | NorESM1-M |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Han River | 0.64 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.48 |
Nakdong River | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
Geum River | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.91 | 0.38 |
Seomjin River | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.71 | - |
Yeongsan River | 0.26 | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.41 | - | 0.45 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.96 | 0.70 | 0.31 |
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Kim, J.E.; Yoo, J.; Chung, G.H.; Kim, T.-W. Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis. Water 2019, 11, 2052. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102052
Kim JE, Yoo J, Chung GH, Kim T-W. Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis. Water. 2019; 11(10):2052. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102052
Chicago/Turabian StyleKim, Ji Eun, Jiyoung Yoo, Gun Hui Chung, and Tae-Woong Kim. 2019. "Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis" Water 11, no. 10: 2052. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102052