Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder River—Requirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport
2. Ice Cover Breakage as an Ice Flood Mitigation Scheme
3. Requirements for an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System on the Oder River
3.1. Ice Jam Formation
- Characteristics of the moving ice floes—large vs. small, thick vs. thin;
- Flow velocity and temperature of the water—faster flows will tend to increase thrust on the ice jam front and drag along the underside of the ice jam, which will increase the severity of the jam and resulting backwater staging; higher water temperatures can ablate the ice quicker;
- Form of the river profile—both meandering or varying cross-sectional flow areas influence flow velocity fields;
- Characteristics of the river bed (sediment)—gravel beds will erode less than beds with soft sediment;
- Weather conditions—cold air temperatures will create more ice and also increase cohesion to consolidate ice covers more quickly.
3.2. Ice Cover Extension
- Amount of incoming ice—determines the supply of ice to the jam and its juxtapositioning cover; more ice supplied from upstream floes and frazil ice may shove and thicken the jams, exasperating backwater staging;
- Weather conditions in the upstream river basin—persistent cold weather will generate more ice; rain-on-snow or rain-on-frozen ground events can increase discharges and lead to increased staging before ice jams are flushed out of the river stretch;
- Water level (size of flooded area) during ice generation;
- Dynamic water level in the ice generation zone;
- Structure of the ice floes—e.g., thickness, size and consistency of the ice floes.
3.3. Ice Cover Movement
- Shifts in the ice causing shear stresses along the bottom of the ice cover to redistribute and break sections of the cover;
- Sections of broken ice sheets submerging under downstream covers to form layers leading to thickening of ice;
- Open leads which often form when ice releases from the cover and submerge to be swept with the current and deposited on downstream ice covers and established ice jams.
- Where will an ice jam occur?
- When will the ice jam occur?
- How much backwater staging will result?
- What is the time to peak?
- Will there be potential water level rises after an ice jam releases?
4. Summary of Current Research
4.1. Climate Trends in the Oder River Basin
4.2. Space-Borne Remote Sensing
4.2.1. Optical and Thermal Imagery
4.2.2. Microwave Imagery
- Water—river free of ice phenomena;
- Fractured ice—floe or frazil ice floating and free flowing;
- Solid ice cover—ice cover not covered with snow, also sections of the river covered with dense frazil ice or densely arranged floes;
- Ice cover by snow—areas of the river bed giving a very strong reflection of radiation in both the visible and low backscattering in the microwave portion of the spectrum.
4.3. River Discharge and Flood Extent Forecasting
4.3.1. Hydrological Modelling
4.3.2. Hydrodynamic and River Ice Modelling
4.3.3. Stochastic Modelling
4.4. Designing River Modifications to Reduce Probabilities of Ice Jamming
5. A Way Forward
Conflicts of Interest
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|frequency/wavelength||X-band/3 cm||C-band/5.6 cm||C-band/5.6 cm|
|polarisation||single-pol, dual-pol, (quad-pol)||single-pol, dual-pol, quad-pol||single-pol, dual-pol|
|spatial resolution (SLC)/scene size||0.6 m/4 km (spotlight)|
3.3.m/270 km (wide ScanSAR)
|8 m/50 km (fine mode)|
100 m/500 km (ScanSAR wide mode)
|5 m/80 km (StripMap)|
20 m/250 km (interferometric wide swath
|data access||commercial distribution of data||commercial distribution of data||open data policy|
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Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Carstensen, D.; Fröhlich, W.; Hentschel, B.; Iwicki, S.; Kögel, M.; Kubicki, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Lauschke, C.; Łazarów, A.; et al. Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder River—Requirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport. Water 2019, 11, 95. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010095
Lindenschmidt K-E, Carstensen D, Fröhlich W, Hentschel B, Iwicki S, Kögel M, Kubicki M, Kundzewicz ZW, Lauschke C, Łazarów A, et al. Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder River—Requirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport. Water. 2019; 11(1):95. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010095Chicago/Turabian Style
Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich, Dirk Carstensen, Wolfgang Fröhlich, Bernd Hentschel, Stefan Iwicki, Michael Kögel, Michał Kubicki, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Cornelia Lauschke, Adam Łazarów, and et al. 2019. "Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder River—Requirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport" Water 11, no. 1: 95. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010095