The Risk Assessment of River Water Pollution Based on a Modified Non-Linear Model

The water resource system is a non-linear system, featuring variability and randomness. Its risk assessment is very different from that of a linear system. Considering the effects of river flow on the pollutant diffusion, migration, and maximum tolerable concentration, a modified non-linear model (MNLM) was established, while the forcing terms were introduced to model functions for water pollution risk assessment. Taking the Weihe River Basin in China as an example, the risk assessment values were divided into five levels: negligible risk, acceptable risk, marginal risk, unacceptable risk, and catastrophic risk. As such, the risk variation of the river pollution interval was analyzed. The results showed that the BOD₅, COD, and nitrite nitrogen are the main pollutants, leading to great risks of river water pollution. Moreover, it was found that the risk in the dry season is higher than that in the flood season, while the risk based on MNLM is 10.9% higher than that of linear methods. Verification indicates that MNLM is considered more suitable for risk assessment of complex river water pollution. However, the forcing term coefficient should be corrected for actual situations in different river water systems. The explored MNLM is expected to give insights into regional river water environment management.