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Water 2018, 10(2), 126;

Multiple Climate Change Scenarios and Runoff Response in Biliu River

College of Water Resources Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen 518055, China
State Key Laboratory of Water Resource & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 19 October 2017 / Revised: 25 January 2018 / Accepted: 26 January 2018 / Published: 30 January 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Catchment Management and Reservoir Operation)
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The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on regional evaporation and runoff characteristics have been investigated for the Biliu River basin, which is located in Liaoning Province, northeast China. Multiple climate change scenarios from phase 3 and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) (21 scenarios in total) were utilized. A calibrated hydrologic model—SWAT model—was used to simulate future discharges based on downscaled climate data through a validated morphing method. Results show that both annual temperature and precipitation increase under most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios, and increase more in the far future (2041–2065) than in the near future (2016–2040). These changes in precipitation and temperature lead to an increase in evaporation under 19 scenarios and a decrease in runoff under two-thirds of the selected scenarios. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 scenarios show higher temperature and wider ranges of changes in precipitation and runoff. The results provide important information on the impacts of global climate change on water resources availability in the Biliu River basin, which is beneficial for the planning and management of water resources in this region. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; CMIP3; CMIP5; downscaling; runoff response; SWAT model climate change; CMIP3; CMIP5; downscaling; runoff response; SWAT model

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Zhu, X.; Zhang, C.; Qi, W.; Cai, W.; Zhao, X.; Wang, X. Multiple Climate Change Scenarios and Runoff Response in Biliu River. Water 2018, 10, 126.

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