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Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Flood Risk of Urban Agglomeration Polders Using Multivariate Copula

1
College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, No. 1, Xi Kang Rd., Gu Lou District, Nanjing 210098, China
2
Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA
3
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
4
Shenzhen Techand Ecology & Environment Co., Ltd., Agricultural Business Office Building, No. 8133, Futian District, Shenzhen 518040, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(10), 1470; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101470
Received: 13 September 2018 / Revised: 3 October 2018 / Accepted: 16 October 2018 / Published: 18 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Modelling: Regional Flood Estimation and GIS Based Techniques)
Urban agglomeration polders (UAPs) are often used to control flooding in eastern China. The impacts of UAPs on individual flood events have been extensively examined, but how flood risks are influenced by UAPs is much less examined. This study aimed to explore a three-dimensional joint distribution of annual flood volume, peak flow and water level to examine UAPs’ impact on flood risks based on hydrological simulations. The dependence between pairwise hydrological characteristics are measured by rank correlation coefficients and graphs. An Archimedean Copula is applied to model the dependence structure. This approach is applied to the Qinhuai River Basin where UAPs are used proactively for flood control. The result shows that the Frank Copula can better represent the dependence structure in the Qinhuai River Basin. UAPs increase risks of individual flood characteristics and integrated risks. UAPs have a relatively greater impact on water level than the other two flood characteristics. It is noted that the impact on flood risk levels off for greater floods. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk; polders; Archimedean Copula; peak flow; hydrological modelling; water resources flood risk; polders; Archimedean Copula; peak flow; hydrological modelling; water resources
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gao, Y.; Wang, D.; Zhang, Z.; Ma, Z.; Guo, Z.; Ye, L. Analysis of Flood Risk of Urban Agglomeration Polders Using Multivariate Copula. Water 2018, 10, 1470.

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