Atmospheric Concentration of Particulate Air Pollutants in the Context of Projected Future Emissions from Motor Vehicles

Ambient PM concentrations are influenced by various emission sources and weather conditions such as temperature, wind speed, and direction. Measurements using optical sensors cannot directly link pollution levels to specific sources. Data from roadside monitoring often show that a significant portion of PM originates from non-traffic sources. Therefore, vehicle-related PM emissions are typically estimated using simulation models based on average emission factors. This study uses the COPERT (Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) model to estimate emissions from road vehicles under current conditions and future scenarios. These include the introduction of Euro 7 standards and a shift from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The analysis considers exhaust and non-exhaust emissions, as well as indirect emissions from electricity generation for BEV charging. The conducted study showed, among other findings, that replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones could reduce PM2.5 emissions by approximately 6% (2% when including indirect emissions from electricity generation) and PM10 emissions by about 10% (5% with indirect emissions), compared to the Euro 7 scenario.