Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions over Northwest Greece Using a Data Assimilation Technique
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Power Plants in Northwest Greece
2.2. The LOTOS-EUROS CTM
2.3. The A Priori NOx Emissions
2.4. The S5P/TROPOMI Satellite Observations
2.5. Ensemble Kalman Filter around LOTOS-EUROS CTM
2.6. In Situ NO2 Measurements
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. LOTOS-EUROS NO2 Simulations and S5P/TROPOMI Observations
3.2. Updated Assimilated NOx Emissions
3.3. Validation of the A Posteriori NOx Simulations
3.3.1. In Situ Measurements
3.3.2. Energy Production of the Power Plants
4. Conclusions
- For 2019, the summertime a posteriori emissions estimated for the two largest power plants of Ag. Dimitrios and Kardia decreased by more than 60% compared to the a priori 2015 emissions, while in 2018 they are reduced by around 33%.
- Stronger decreases in the energy production are reported for the summer period of 2019 compared to the summer of 2018 as well, in line with the estimated emission reduction. The energy production of the Ag. Dimitrios power plant decreased by around 50% in 2019 compared to 2015, while in Kardia and Amyntaio energy decreased by 90% for the summer of 2019. In the summer of 2018, the energy production in the three larger power plants decreased by around 30–45%.
- The a posteriori annual emission changes estimated over the two larger power plants in 2018 compared to the a priori 2015 emissions are ~−40% to −50%, whereas the changes for 2019 are ~−70% for both power plants. These a posteriori annual NOx emissions agree well in line with the annual emissions reported by E-PRTR. The changes in the annual E-PRTR 2018 reported emissions compared to 2015 over Ag. Dimitrios and Kardia are −35% and −38%, while for 2019 this decrease rises to −62% and −72%, closely following the findings of this work.
- In situ NO2 measurements from air quality stations of Koilada and Amyntaio, which are directly affected by pollution from the power plants of Ag. Dimitrios and Amyntaio, show an improved agreement with the assimilated NO2 simulations compared to the base run which is based on the 2015 CAMS a priori emissions. The bias in the station of Koilada near the power plant of Ag. Dimitrios improves to 2 μg/m3 (2.83 μg/m3) from 10.5 μg/m3 (8.46 μg/m3) in 2019 (2018).
- The results for the Meliti power plant were found not to be representative of the grid cell where the plant is located due to presence of other emission sources affecting that grid cell. The dominant winds over the neighboring Bitola power plant are northerly for both summers of 2018 and 2019, showing that pollution may flow from the neighboring country of Republic of North Macedonia towards Northwest Greece.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Localization Radius (ρ) in km | |||
---|---|---|---|
Configuration | Mean | Bias | RMSE |
Base run | 13.05 | 9.17 | 12.21 |
ρ = 0 | 8.37 | 4.49 | 7.40 |
ρ = 5 | 7.46 | 3.58 | 6.36 |
ρ = 7 | 7.20 | 3.31 | 6.01 |
ρ = 14 | 6.56 | 2.68 | 5.31 |
ρ = 20 | 6.49 | 2.61 | 5.23 |
Temporal correlation parameter (τ) in days | |||
Configuration | Mean | Bias | RMSE |
Base run | 13.05 | 9.17 | 12.21 |
τ = 1 | 8.83 | 4.95 | 8.04 |
τ = 3 | 6.56 | 2.68 | 5.31 |
τ = 5 | 5.82 | 1.94 | 4.52 |
τ = 7 | 5.46 | 1.57 | 4.18 |
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CAMS NOx Emission (Tonnes/Year) | Ag. Dimitrios | Kardia | Amyntaio | Meliti |
---|---|---|---|---|
Point sources (Public power) | 11000 | 8060 | 3190 | 694 |
Rest emitting sources | 181 | 125 | 141 | 127 |
Power Plants | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TROPOMI | LOTOS-EUROS | Bias | TROPOMI | LOTOS-EUROS | Bias | |
Ag. Dimitrios | 3.70 ± 2.42 | 7.29 ± 5.14 | 3.59 | 2.11 ± 1.43 | 8.97 ± 6.17 | 6.86 |
Kardia | 3.20 ± 2.51 | 4.75 ± 3.83 | 1.55 | 1.64 ± 0.67 | 6.13 ± 4.31 | 4.50 |
Amyntaio | 2.13 ± 1.20 | 2.88 ± 1.90 | 0.75 | 1.37 ± 0.53 | 2.38 ± 0.93 | 1.01 |
Meliti | 1.61 ± 0.61 | 1.33 ± 0.50 | −0.28 | 1.46 ± 0.47 | 1.40 ± 0.96 | −0.06 |
Relative Differences | Ag. Dimitrios | Kardia | Amyntaio | Meliti |
---|---|---|---|---|
2018–2015 | −38% | −27% | −1% | −11% |
2019–2015 | −63% | −63% | −37% | −1% |
Air Quality Stations | Emission Sources | Seasonal Mean (μg/m3) ± std | Bias (μg/m3) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measurements | Base Run | Assimilated | Base Run | Assimilated | ||
Koilada | P.P. Ag. Dimitrios | 3.39 ± 2.74 | 13.92 ± 10.18 | 5.39 ± 4.65 | 10.52 | 2.00 |
Filotas | Town of Filotas/P.P. Amyntaio | 5.38 ± 3.52 | 4.91 ± 4.46 | 3.12 ± 3.12 | −0.47 | −2.26 |
Amyntaio | Town of Amyntaio/P.P. Amyntaio | 4.00 ± 2.25 | 7.49 ± 7.57 | 5.73 ± 6.35 | 3.49 | 1.73 |
Meliti | Town of Meliti/P.P. Meliti/P.P. Bitola | 8.18 ± 6.46 | 6.55 ± 6.23 | 5.84 ± 6.49 | −1.63 | −2.34 |
Florina | Town of Florina | 4.93 ± 2.45 | 6.10 ± 6.35 | 4.57 ± 5.65 | 1.17 | −0.35 |
Relative Differences | Ag. Dimitrios | Kardia | Amyntaio | Meliti | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Energy | Emissions | Energy | Emissions | Energy | Emissions | Energy | Emissions | |
2018–2015 | −27% | −38% | −31% | −27% | −43% | −1% | 2% | −11% |
2019–2015 | −48% | −63% | −90% | −63% | −88% | −37% | −51% | −1% |
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Skoulidou, I.; Koukouli, M.-E.; Segers, A.; Manders, A.; Balis, D.; Stavrakou, T.; van Geffen, J.; Eskes, H. Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions over Northwest Greece Using a Data Assimilation Technique. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 900. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070900
Skoulidou I, Koukouli M-E, Segers A, Manders A, Balis D, Stavrakou T, van Geffen J, Eskes H. Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions over Northwest Greece Using a Data Assimilation Technique. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(7):900. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070900
Chicago/Turabian StyleSkoulidou, Ioanna, Maria-Elissavet Koukouli, Arjo Segers, Astrid Manders, Dimitris Balis, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jos van Geffen, and Henk Eskes. 2021. "Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions over Northwest Greece Using a Data Assimilation Technique" Atmosphere 12, no. 7: 900. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070900