Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Evaluation of the Confidence Levels of the Spectral Analysis
3. High-Resolution Spectral Analysis of the Global Surface Temperature Versus the CMIP5 Multi-Model Mean Function
4. Optimized Spectral Analysis and Harmonic Modeling
4.1. The Non-Harmonic Temperature Component is Assumed to be Simulated by the Anthropogenic + Volcano CMIP5 Multi-Model Mean Temperature Function
4.2. The Non-Harmonic Temperature Component is Assumed to be Simulated by 50% of the Anthropogenic + Volcano CMIP5 Multi-Model Mean Temperature Function
5. Secular and Millennial Temperature Reconstruction and a Discussion on the Physical Origin of the Climatic Oscillations
5.1. The Optimized Semi-Empirical Climate Regression Model
5.2. The Astronomically Optimized Semi-Empirical Climate Model
6. Validation of the Model Forecast
7. Conclusions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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MTM Spectral Peak Frequencies | MEM Spectral Peak Frequencies | Regression Optimized Frequencies | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
() | () | (°C) | () | () | (°C) | () | () | (°C) | |||
62.11 | 0.0161 | 0.118 | 0.20 | 64.10 | 0.0156 | 0.122 | 0.16 | 65.79 | 0.0152 | 0.121 | 0.14 |
21.33 | 0.0469 | 0.042 | 1.00 | 20.75 | 0.0482 | 0.044 | 0.08 | 20.70 | 0.0483 | 0.046 | 0.10 |
10.24 | 0.0977 | 0.027 | 0.13 | 10.44 | 0.0958 | 0.025 | 0.97 | 10.21 | 0.0979 | 0.031 | 0.13 |
9.225 | 0.1084 | 0.038 | 0.45 | 9.234 | 0.1083 | 0.041 | 0.44 | 9.183 | 0.1089 | 0.039 | 0.50 |
8.190 | 0.1221 | 0.024 | 0.82 | 7.831 | 0.1277 | 0.015 | 0.38 | 8.190 | 0.1221 | 0.021 | 0.80 |
7.530 | 0.1328 | 0.024 | 0.66 | 7.645 | 0.1308 | 0.024 | 0.57 | ||||
6.131 | 0.1631 | 0.021 | 0.27 | 6.020 | 0.1661 | 0.027 | 0.61 | 6.254 | 0.1599 | 0.027 | 0.94 |
5.277 | 0.1895 | 0.025 | 0.33 | 5.200 | 0.1923 | 0.025 | 0.49 | 5.236 | 0.1910 | 0.029 | 0.42 |
4.762 | 0.2100 | 0.031 | 0.04 | 4.746 | 0.2107 | 0.033 | 0.10 | 4.773 | 0.2095 | 0.034 | 0.01 |
4.232 | 0.2363 | 0.017 | 0.46 | 4.202 | 0.2380 | 0.022 | 0.58 | 4.179 | 0.2393 | 0.026 | 0.65 |
3.644 | 0.2744 | 0.025 | 0.70 | 3.635 | 0.2751 | 0.024 | 0.73 | 3.628 | 0.2756 | 0.029 | 0.79 |
3.531 | 0.2832 | 0.023 | 0.89 | 3.516 | 0.2844 | 0.021 | 0.95 | 3.556 | 0.2812 | 0.028 | 0.79 |
2.876 | 0.3477 | 0.025 | 0.95 | 2.869 | 0.3486 | 0.025 | 0.02 | 2.875 | 0.3478 | 0.025 | 0.97 |
MTM Spectral Peak Frequencies | MEM Spectral Peak Frequencies | Regression Optimized Frequencies | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
() | () | (°C) | () | () | (°C) | () | () | (°C) | |||
760 | 1/760 | 0.350 | 0.171 | 760 | 1/760 | 0.350 | 0.171 | 760 | 1/760 | 0.33 | 0.171 |
115 | 1/115 | 0.050 | 0.424 | 115 | 1/115 | 0.050 | 0.424 | 115 | 1/115 | 0.055 | 0.424 |
58.50 | 0.0171 | 0.086 | 0.26 | 58.82 | 0.0170 | 0.088 | 0.25 | 63.29 | 0.0158 | 0.091 | 0.17 |
21.32 | 0.0469 | 0.029 | 0.94 | 20.33 | 0.0492 | 0.033 | 0.08 | 20.33 | 0.0492 | 0.034 | 0.10 |
10.34 | 0.0967 | 0.023 | 0.024 | 10.72 | 0.0933 | 0.012 | 0.85 | 10.37 | 0.0964 | 0.025 | 0.00 |
9.225 | 0.1084 | 0.032 | 0.46 | 9.302 | 0.1075 | 0.033 | 0.37 | 9.19 | 0.1088 | 0.034 | 0.49 |
7.587 | 0.1318 | 0.020 | 0.61 | 7.680 | 0.1302 | 0.020 | 0.52 | 7.536 | 0.1327 | 0.020 | 0.65 |
6.131 | 0.1631 | 0.024 | 0.25 | 6.039 | 0.1656 | 0.027 | 0.51 | 6.010 | 0.1664 | 0.029 | 0.61 |
5.252 | 0.1904 | 0.026 | 0.39 | 5.198 | 0.1924 | 0.024 | 0.51 | 5.219 | 0.1916 | 0.026 | 0.44 |
4.785 | 0.2090 | 0.031 | 0.96 | 4.762 | 0.2100 | 0.031 | 0.03 | 4.787 | 0.2089 | 0.033 | 0.95 |
3.644 | 0.2744 | 0.024 | 0.70 | 3.640 | 0.2747 | 0.024 | 0.72 | 3.636 | 0.2750 | 0.027 | 0.75 |
3.531 | 0.2832 | 0.023 | 0.91 | 3.516 | 0.2844 | 0.021 | 0.96 | 3.554 | 0.2814 | 0.025 | 0.81 |
2.876 | 0.3477 | 0.025 | 0.96 | 2.871 | 0.3483 | 0.026 | 1.00 | 2.874 | 0.3480 | 0.025 | 0.98 |
Semi-Empirical Optimized Frequencies | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Possible Origin | () | () | (°C) | |
Solar/Planetary | 760 | 760 | 0.3228 | 0.1711 |
Solar/Planetary | 115 | 115 | 0.0585 | 0.4239 |
Solar/Planetary | 61 | 61 | 0.0859 | 0.152 |
Solar/Planetary | 20 | 20 | 0.0334 | 0.148 |
Sun Spots | 10.4 | 10.4 | 0.0241 | 0.020 |
Solar-Lunar tidal | 9.3 | 9.3 | 0.0265 | 0.497 |
Solar/Planetary | 7.463 | 0.1340 | 0.0216 | 0.711 |
Solar/Planetary | 6.003 | 0.1666 | 0.0272 | 0.617 |
Solar/Planetary | 5.238 | 0.1909 | 0.0260 | 0.409 |
Solar/Orbital | 4.795 | 0.2086 | 0.0326 | 0.931 |
Solar/Orbital | 3.633 | 0.2752 | 0.0276 | 0.767 |
Solar/Orbital | 3.556 | 0.2812 | 0.0254 | 0.792 |
Solar/Orbital | 2.874 | 0.3480 | 0.0247 | 0.975 |
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Scafetta, N. Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 147. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020147
Scafetta N. Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(2):147. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020147
Chicago/Turabian StyleScafetta, Nicola. 2021. "Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature" Atmosphere 12, no. 2: 147. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020147