Next Article in Journal
Comparison of GC-μECD and OA-ICOS Methods for High-Precision Measurements of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide (N2O) at a Korean GAW Station
Next Article in Special Issue
Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (Prunus africana) under Climate Change in Tanzania
Previous Article in Journal
Initiation and Organization Mechanisms of Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event over Beijing
Previous Article in Special Issue
Changes in the Seasonality of Ethiopian Highlands Climate and Implications for Crop Growth
Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Climate and the Global Spread and Impact of Bananas’ Black Leaf Sigatoka Disease

by 1,* and 2
1
Department of Economics, University of Bern, 3008 Bern, Switzerland
2
Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine 82391, Trinidad and Tobago
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(9), 947; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090947
Received: 7 August 2020 / Revised: 29 August 2020 / Accepted: 31 August 2020 / Published: 5 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Adaptation to Global Climate Change)
While Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) has arguably been the most important pathogen affecting the banana industry over the past 50 years, there are no quantitative estimates of what risk factors determine its spread across the globe, nor how its spread has affected banana producing countries. This study empirically models the disease spread across and its impact within countries using historical spread timelines, biophysical models, local climate data, and country level agricultural data. To model the global spread a empirical hazard model is employed. The results show that the most important factor affecting first time infection of a country is the extent of their agricultural imports, having increased first time disease incidence by 69% points. In contrast, long distance dispersal due to climatic factors only raised this probability by 0.8% points. The impact of disease diffusion within countries once they are infected is modelled using a panel regression estimator. Findings indicate that under the right climate conditions the impact of Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease can be substantial, currently resulting in an average 3% reduction in global annual production, i.e., a loss of yearly revenue of about USD 1.6 billion. View Full-Text
Keywords: bananas; Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease; climate; global spread & impact bananas; Black Sigatoka Leaf Disease; climate; global spread & impact
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Strobl, E.; Mohan, P. Climate and the Global Spread and Impact of Bananas’ Black Leaf Sigatoka Disease. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 947.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop