Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

I find the paper “Assessment of total climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of Cyprus” well-structured, clearly written, and with adequate presentation of methods, methods’ limitations, and relevance of results. My recommendation would be to accept it for publication in Atmosphere after minor revision:

Abstract:

Lines 32-33: final sentence of abstract. I would change that for a more balanced statement avoiding just an economic focus. For instance, you could write instead: “However, it is recommended that producers and the Government take action to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability”.

1. Introduction

Line 66. Please, introduce some statement -and some reference too if available- about the great value of some of the analysed crops (e.g. grapevine, olive, wheat) concerning economics, cultural heritage and environmental conservation  for Mediterranean countries or Cyprus so that the manuscript is also more coherent when referring to sustainability in the abstract, results and discussion, and conclusions.

2. Methods

Line 116. Please, also provide horizontal resolution in kilometres.

Line 173. I think you need to introduce or mention table 5 somewhere in this paragraph or at the end of it.

Table 5. Which years the Cyprus Agricultural Payments Organization (CAPO) consulted sources refer to?

3. Results and discussion.

Lines 270-271 “….based on the opinion of the involved stakeholders in Cyprus.” It is very good to take into account stakeholders for effective science. Please, could you reflect or explain better how that was done? References? Workshops or Seminars? Both?

Lines 320-322. Same as 32-33. I would change that for a more balanced statement avoiding just an economic focus. For instance, you could write instead: “However, it is recommended that producers and the Government take action to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability”.

4. Conclusions

Line 340. If you join results and discussion, I think you end with a 4^th section instead of a fifth one.

Lines 366-369. Same as 32-33. I would change that for a more balanced statement avoiding just an economic focus. For instance, you could write instead: “However, it is recommended that producers and the Government take action to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability”.

Author Response

Thank you very much for your comments. Please find below our replies:

Abstract:

Lines 32-33: final sentence of abstract. I would change that for a more balanced statement avoiding just an economic focus. For instance, you could write instead: “However, it is recommended that producers and the Government take action to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability”.

Reply: The statement was modified as follows in order to achieve a more balanced statement.

“However, the farmers as well as the Government should take action to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector, with a special focus on those crops and areas that are expected to be adversely affected by climate change impacts.”

Introduction

Line 66. Please, introduce some statement -and some reference too if available- about the great value of some of the analysed crops (e.g. grapevine, olive, wheat) concerning economics, cultural heritage and environmental conservation  for Mediterranean countries or Cyprus so that the manuscript is also more coherent when referring to sustainability in the abstract, results and discussion, and conclusions.

Reply: The following text was moved from the methods sections to the introduction, in order to provide a short intro on the examined crops.

“Overall, six crops were taken into account in the impact assessment, i.e. barley, wheat, tomatoes, potatoes, olive trees and grapevines. These crops are considered to be important for the agricultural sector of Cyprus, since they contributed approximately 60% to the total revenues of the sector, during the period 2010-2015, “

Next the following text was added to provide information about the great value of some of the analysed crops (e.g. grapevine, olive, wheat) concerning economics, cultural heritage and environmental conservation for or Cyprus.

“while the area cultivated with these crops constituted 50% of the total cultivated area in Cyprus in 2015 [7]. On average, during the period 2010-2015, potatoes recorded the highest total value of production with 25% share in the total value of crop production, followed by olives with 11% share, barley and wheat with 9%, tomatoes with 7% and grapes with 6% [7]. In Cyprus, cultivated areas with grapevines and olive trees are characterized as areas of High Natural Value (HNV) and as Protected Landscapes. HNVs are cultivated with traditional methods, have high ecological value and support great biodiversity. Protected Landscapes are areas of high aesthetical, ecological and cultural importance. The grapevines cultivated in Cyprus are traditional varieties that are adjusted to the local climatic and other conditions [8]. Cereals are widely cultivated in Cyprus, as almost 25% of the total utilised agricultural area is covered with barley and wheat. From the examined crops, potatoes and grapevine products are among are among the crop products of the primary sector with high added value [8], while potato is also the most important raw agricultural export product of Cyprus [9]."

7. LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA. Knowledge capitalization concerning the sectors of agriculture in the regions of Crete, Sicily and Cyprus, Deliverable C1.1. Project ADAPT2CLIMA (LIFE14 CCA/GR/000928), 2016. http://adapt2clima.eu/uploads/2017/Del_C1_1.pdf
8. Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment. Cyprus Rural Development Programme 2014-2020, version 1.4. Republic of Cyprus, 2015. http://www.paa.gov.cy/moa/paa/paa.nsf/All/3763CA3C237DF5F3C22580F7003E192B
9. CYSTAT. Agricultural Statistics 2015, Series II, Reports No. 45. Cyprus Statistical Service. Republic of Cyprus, Nicosia, 2017.

Methods

Line 116. Please, also provide horizontal resolution in kilometres.

Reply: The horizontal resolution of the model is about 12km and has been added to the revised manuscript.

Line 173. I think you need to introduce or mention table 5 somewhere in this paragraph or at the end of it.

Reply: The table is mentioned at the end of this paragraph.

Table 5. Which years the Cyprus Agricultural Payments Organization (CAPO) consulted sources refer to?

Reply: The source refers to year 2015. The information has been added to the table.

Results and discussion.

Lines 270-271 283-284“.based on the opinion of the involved stakeholders in Cyprus.” It is very good to take into account stakeholders for effective science. Please, could you reflect or explain better how that was done? References? Workshops or Seminars? Both?

Reply: The relevant information is provided through the text below. However, it was considered that it would be better suited in the Methods section, so it was inserted after the sentence in row 130 (former 99) “Indicators were assigned with weights which were defined through expert judgement.”:

"In particular, a steering committee was set from the beginning of the project bringing together the relevant ADAPT2CLIMA stakeholder groups, i.e. representatives from agricultural cooperatives, competent government departments, Non-Governmental Organizations, as well as agronomists and academic staff from relevant fields. Among the goals of the steering committee were to inform the project team with respect to the different stakeholders’ views and expectations and to provide advice throughout the project implementation, in order to promote the validation of the project results and, subsequently, their exploitation and uptake [17]. The process of assigning weights to individual indicators was realized through short Focus Group Discussions (FGD) that took place during workshops, with members of the steering committee and the project team. The committee members were asked to provide their opinion on the relevant importance of the different indicators in the form of weights."

17. LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA. Stakeholder Engagement Strategy and Communication Plan - Deliverable A1.1. Project ADAPT2CLIMA (LIFE14 CCA/GR/000928), 2015.

Lines 320-322. Same as 32-33. I would change that for a more balanced statement avoiding just an economic focus. For instance, you could write instead: “However, it is recommended that producers and the Government take action to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability”.

Reply: The statement was modified as shown in Comment

Conclusions

Line 340. If you join results and discussion, I think you end with a 4^th section instead of a fifth one.

Reply: This is right, we corrected the numbering of the section.

Lines 366-369. Same as 32-33. I would change that for a more balanced statement avoiding just an economic focus. For instance, you could write instead: “However, it is recommended that producers and the Government take action to ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability”.

Reply: The statement was modified as shown in Comment 1.

Reviewer 2 Report

The manuscript reports an analysis of the impact and vulnerability assessment of climate change on the agricultural sector. Impact and vulnerability assessments by climate change of each crop were performed well. However, there are some parts to improve in the introduction, methods, and results & discussion. First, the introduction should include information about each crop and a description of the crop yield model. For methods, some specific comments are attached below. In the case of results & discussion, the results of impact and vulnerability assessment were described by each crop and district. However, it is not explained why the results were different depending on each RCP scenario, precocity level, and district. You should also compare the impact results with the results of other similar studies to evaluate whether the results of this study were performed successfully. In addition, this process should be the basis for interpreting the results of vulnerability assessment. Finally, the manuscript is weak as regards the statistical analysis and does not provide significance levels. If you can add statistical analysis, please add it.

Line 70: I suggest adding information about the study site (e.g. scale, climate, percentage of cultivated area, etc.).

Line 118: Do you mean the average of the 30-year results? I suggest adding the method and reason for the results of handling.

Line 130: Please add a brief description of the model's performance.

Line 147: Was only weather data and soil texture used as input data for the crop model? Please provide details of soil nutrient content and cultivation method (fertilizer treatment, harvesting dates, etc.). Also, please refer to the scale of the input data and the model-simulation scale in detail.

Author Response

Thank you very much for your comments. Please find attached our replies.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Round 2

Reviewer 2 Report

The comments I have suggested are well included in the revised article.

Thank you for adding and revising a lot of content.