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Article

Applying a Delphi-Type Approach to Estimate the Adaptation Cost on Agriculture to Climate Change in Cyprus

1
Agricultural Research Institute, Nicosia 1516, Cyprus
2
Department of Agricultural Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
3
Department of Regional Development and Cross Border Studies, University of Western Macedonia, 50100 Kozani, Greece
4
Department of Agricultural Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht 41335-3516, Iran
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(5), 536; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050536
Received: 12 April 2020 / Revised: 13 May 2020 / Accepted: 19 May 2020 / Published: 21 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation of Cyprus Agriculture to Climate Change)
Agriculture is highly dependent on climate change, and Cyprus especially is experiencing its impacts on agricultural production to a greater extent, mainly due to its geographical location. The adaptation of farming to the effects of global climate change may lead to the maximization of agricultural production, which is an important and desirable improvement. The main aim of this paper is to rank and quantify the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Cyprus, through a multi-round Delphi survey seeking a consensus agreement in a group of experts. A multidisciplinary group of 20 experts stated their willingness-to-pay for various impacts of climate change. By applying this method, the individual impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources were brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with cost values. The final cost impact estimate represents the total estimated cost of climate change in the agricultural sector. According to the results, this cost reaches EUR 25.08 million annually for the agricultural sector, and EUR 366.48 million for the whole country. Therefore, it is expected that in the seven-year programming period 2014–2020 the total cost of climate change on agriculture ranges from EUR 176 to EUR 2565 million. The most significant impacts are due to the increasing level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems. View Full-Text
Keywords: agriculture; climate change; Delphi method; impacts; water resources; willingness-to-pay agriculture; climate change; Delphi method; impacts; water resources; willingness-to-pay
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MDPI and ACS Style

Markou, M.; Michailidis, A.; Loizou, E.; Nastis, S.A.; Lazaridou, D.; Kountios, G.; Allahyari, M.S.; Stylianou, A.; Papadavid, G.; Mattas, K. Applying a Delphi-Type Approach to Estimate the Adaptation Cost on Agriculture to Climate Change in Cyprus. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050536

AMA Style

Markou M, Michailidis A, Loizou E, Nastis SA, Lazaridou D, Kountios G, Allahyari MS, Stylianou A, Papadavid G, Mattas K. Applying a Delphi-Type Approach to Estimate the Adaptation Cost on Agriculture to Climate Change in Cyprus. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(5):536. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050536

Chicago/Turabian Style

Markou, Marinos, Anastasios Michailidis, Efstratios Loizou, Stefanos A. Nastis, Dimitra Lazaridou, Georgios Kountios, Mohammad S. Allahyari, Andreas Stylianou, George Papadavid, and Konstadinos Mattas. 2020. "Applying a Delphi-Type Approach to Estimate the Adaptation Cost on Agriculture to Climate Change in Cyprus" Atmosphere 11, no. 5: 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050536

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