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Article

Late 21st Century Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet, and African Easterly Waves

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West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Landuse (WASCAL) Graduate Research Program on West African Climate System, Federal University of Technology, P.M.B. 704 Akure, Nigeria
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WASCAL Competence Center, Boulevard Mouammar Kadafi, Patte d’oie, 06 B.P 9507 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
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Department of Geography, University of California—Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
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African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), AIMS Rwanda Center, KN 3, P.O. Box 71 50 Kigali, Rwanda
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Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
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Institute of Research for Development IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, IGE, University Grenoble Alpes, F-38000 Grenoble, France
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African Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture (ACE CCBAD), University Félix Houphouët Boigny, 22 BP 582 Abidjan 22, Cote d’Ivoire
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Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 353; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040353
Received: 10 March 2020 / Revised: 31 March 2020 / Accepted: 2 April 2020 / Published: 4 April 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends in Hydrological and Climate Extremes in Africa)
The present study utilizes three high-resolution simulations from the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) to examine the late 21st century changes (2080–2099) in the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. A set of three Earth System Models are utilized to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions to the RegCM4 experiments. Our analysis focuses on seasonal mean changes in WAM large-scale dynamical features, along with their connections with the summer monsoon precipitation. In the historical period, the simulation ensemble means mimic reasonably well the intensity and spatial distribution of the WAM rainfall as well as the WAM circulation patterns at different scales. The future projection of the WAM climate exhibits warming over the whole West Africa leading to precipitation reduction over the Sahel region, and a slight increase over some areas of the Guinea Coast. The position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is shifted southward and the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) activities are reduced, which affect in turn the WAM rainbelt characteristics in terms of position and strength. Overall the changes in simulated AEJ and AEWs contribute substantially to reduce the seasonal summer mean precipitation in West Africa by the late 21st century, with prevailing negative changes in the Savanna-Sahel region. To further explore the robustness of the relationships revealed in this paper, future studies using different high-resolution regional climate models with large ensemble are recommended. View Full-Text
Keywords: RegCM4; climate change; West African Monsoon; African Easterly Jet; African Easterly Waves; high-resolution regional climate models RegCM4; climate change; West African Monsoon; African Easterly Jet; African Easterly Waves; high-resolution regional climate models
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kebe, I.; Diallo, I.; Sylla, M.B.; De Sales, F.; Diedhiou, A. Late 21st Century Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet, and African Easterly Waves. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 353. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040353

AMA Style

Kebe I, Diallo I, Sylla MB, De Sales F, Diedhiou A. Late 21st Century Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet, and African Easterly Waves. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(4):353. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040353

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kebe, Ibourahima, Ismaila Diallo, Mouhamadou B. Sylla, Fernando De Sales, and Arona Diedhiou. 2020. "Late 21st Century Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet, and African Easterly Waves" Atmosphere 11, no. 4: 353. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040353

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